本文選題：農(nóng)業(yè)自然災(zāi)害 + 糧食安全�。� 參考：《山東農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：糧食安全問題是關(guān)系社會穩(wěn)定、國民經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)健康發(fā)展的重大全局性問題。近年來,農(nóng)業(yè)自然災(zāi)害的頻繁發(fā)生加劇了糧食產(chǎn)量的波動程度,對糧食生產(chǎn)的影響極大。山東省既是中國重要的糧食主產(chǎn)省,又是一個農(nóng)業(yè)自然災(zāi)害頻發(fā)的省份。確保山東省糧食穩(wěn)產(chǎn)增產(chǎn),對于維持糧食供需平衡、保障國家糧食安全、促進(jìn)農(nóng)民增收、實現(xiàn)農(nóng)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展均具有重大意義。本文首先從理論層面上分析了農(nóng)業(yè)自然災(zāi)害對糧食生產(chǎn)影響的直接效應(yīng)和間接效應(yīng);其次,利用山東省1978~2014年糧食生產(chǎn)和農(nóng)業(yè)自然災(zāi)害數(shù)據(jù),分析了山東省糧食生產(chǎn)與農(nóng)業(yè)自然災(zāi)害的時序演變趨勢與空間分布規(guī)律,并運(yùn)用分解模型、灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析模型和脫鉤理論,測算了農(nóng)業(yè)自然災(zāi)害對不同種類糧食單產(chǎn)的影響程度、不同種類自然災(zāi)害與多種糧食作物的關(guān)聯(lián)度以及農(nóng)業(yè)自然災(zāi)害對糧食生產(chǎn)的束縛強(qiáng)度。得出以下主要結(jié)論:從時序維度看,山東省糧食總產(chǎn)量、單產(chǎn)量總體呈現(xiàn)穩(wěn)步提升趨勢,且具有明顯的階段性差異。從空間分布狀態(tài)看,山東省糧食總產(chǎn)量較高的地市主要集中于中西部地區(qū),且存在顯著的區(qū)域性差異。山東省農(nóng)業(yè)自然災(zāi)害演變趨勢主要表現(xiàn)為作用范圍不斷加劇、旱災(zāi)影響力不斷提升、災(zāi)害鏈效應(yīng)愈發(fā)明顯,且不同種類農(nóng)業(yè)自然災(zāi)害呈現(xiàn)出顯著的季節(jié)性、交替性特征。隨著時間的推移,農(nóng)業(yè)自然災(zāi)害也表現(xiàn)出大災(zāi)次數(shù)不斷增加、小災(zāi)次數(shù)不斷減少的變化趨勢。山東省農(nóng)業(yè)自然災(zāi)害的空間分布特點(diǎn)為:東部少、西部多;南部少、北部多。從生產(chǎn)效率看,農(nóng)業(yè)自然災(zāi)害對糧食生產(chǎn)的影響程度(58.93%)一直居于首位,遠(yuǎn)高于技術(shù)因素(31.49%)與社會因素(9.57%)的影響。從總體看,旱災(zāi)對于糧食生產(chǎn)的負(fù)面影響(關(guān)聯(lián)度為0.5874)仍然居于首位,其次則為洪澇災(zāi)害(關(guān)聯(lián)度為0.5649)、風(fēng)雹災(zāi)害(0.4877)。從小麥、玉米生產(chǎn)看,不同農(nóng)業(yè)自然災(zāi)害對作物單產(chǎn)的影響順序也表現(xiàn)為旱災(zāi)、洪澇災(zāi)害、風(fēng)雹災(zāi)害。從生產(chǎn)規(guī)模看,農(nóng)業(yè)自然災(zāi)害受災(zāi)面積與糧食總產(chǎn)量之間的關(guān)系仍表現(xiàn)為擴(kuò)張性耦合狀態(tài),即農(nóng)業(yè)自然災(zāi)害受災(zāi)面積和糧食總產(chǎn)量平均來看仍在不斷增長,且農(nóng)業(yè)自然災(zāi)害的增長速率要高于糧食總產(chǎn)量的增長速率,糧食總產(chǎn)量仍然受到農(nóng)業(yè)自然災(zāi)害的強(qiáng)力束縛。在農(nóng)田水利設(shè)施抗災(zāi)能力方面,水庫容量與農(nóng)業(yè)自然災(zāi)害波動項關(guān)聯(lián)度最高,其次則為有效灌溉面積、農(nóng)用排灌總動力。最后,從保護(hù)農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)環(huán)境、完善水利基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)、提高農(nóng)業(yè)自然災(zāi)害預(yù)警能力、加強(qiáng)糧食新品種研發(fā)、健全農(nóng)業(yè)保險等角度,為山東省糧食生產(chǎn)防災(zāi)減災(zāi)提供對策建議。
[Abstract]:Food security is a major overall problem related to social stability and sustainable and healthy development of the national economy. In recent years, the frequent occurrence of agricultural natural disasters has aggravated the fluctuation degree of grain production, which has a great impact on grain production. Shandong Province is not only an important grain production province in China, but also a province with frequent agricultural natural disasters. It is of great significance to maintain the balance of grain supply and demand, to ensure the national food security, to promote the increase of farmers' income and to realize the sustainable development of agriculture. In this paper, the direct and indirect effects of agricultural natural disasters on grain production are analyzed theoretically, and the data of grain production and agricultural natural disasters from 1978 to 2014 in Shandong Province are used. This paper analyzes the temporal evolution trend and spatial distribution of grain production and agricultural natural disasters in Shandong Province, and applies decomposition model, grey relational analysis model and decoupling theory. The degree of influence of agricultural natural disasters on different kinds of grain yield, the correlation degree between different kinds of natural disasters and many kinds of grain crops, and the restraint intensity of agricultural natural disasters on grain production were calculated. The main conclusions are as follows: from the point of view of time series, the total grain yield and single yield of Shandong Province have a steady upward trend, and there are obvious stage differences. In terms of spatial distribution, the prefectures with higher total grain output in Shandong Province are mainly concentrated in the central and western regions, and there are significant regional differences. The evolution trend of agricultural natural disasters in Shandong Province mainly shows that the range of agricultural natural disasters is increasing continuously, the influence of drought is increasing, the effect of disaster chain is becoming more and more obvious, and different kinds of agricultural natural disasters show remarkable seasonal and alternating characteristics. With the passage of time, agricultural natural disasters also show a trend of increasing the number of major disasters and decreasing the number of small disasters. The spatial distribution characteristics of agricultural natural disasters in Shandong Province are as follows: less in the east, more in the west, less in the south and more in the north. In terms of production efficiency, the impact of agricultural natural disasters on grain production is 58.93), which is far higher than that of technical factors (31.49) and social factors (9.57). On the whole, the negative effect of drought on grain production (correlation degree is 0.5874) is still in the first place, followed by flood disaster (correlation degree is 0.5649), wind and hail disaster is 0.4877. From the perspective of wheat and maize production, the effects of different agricultural natural disasters on crop yield are also drought, flood, wind and hail disasters. In terms of the scale of production, the relationship between the affected areas of agricultural natural disasters and the total grain output is still characterized by expansionary coupling, that is, the affected areas of agricultural natural disasters and the total grain production are still increasing on average. The growth rate of agricultural natural disasters is higher than that of total grain production, and the total grain output is still constrained by agricultural natural disasters. In the aspect of disaster resistance of irrigation and water conservancy facilities reservoir capacity has the highest correlation with the fluctuation of agricultural natural disasters followed by effective irrigation area and total power of agricultural drainage and irrigation. Finally, from the aspects of protecting agricultural ecological environment, perfecting water conservancy infrastructure construction, improving the ability of agricultural natural disaster warning, strengthening the research and development of new grain varieties and perfecting agricultural insurance, the countermeasures and suggestions are provided for the prevention and mitigation of grain production in Shandong Province.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：S42;F326.11

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