本文選題：第三代農(nóng)民 + 供養(yǎng)能力　； 參考：《石家莊經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：土地對(duì)農(nóng)民具有養(yǎng)育功能。且土地對(duì)不同代際之間的農(nóng)民養(yǎng)育能力存在差異,體現(xiàn)為從最基本的生產(chǎn)功能到社會(huì)保障功能的轉(zhuǎn)變�，F(xiàn)階段土地對(duì)新生代農(nóng)民的養(yǎng)育能力較第一代農(nóng)民有降低趨勢(shì),研究土地對(duì)第三代農(nóng)民的供養(yǎng)問題成為未來農(nóng)民發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵所在。本文在對(duì)農(nóng)民定義的基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)行代際劃分,并以河北省經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展程度不同的傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)村為樣本點(diǎn)進(jìn)行對(duì)比,分析土地對(duì)不同代際、不同地區(qū)農(nóng)民的養(yǎng)育能力差異。在研究土地對(duì)新生代農(nóng)民的養(yǎng)育能力中,通過灰色關(guān)聯(lián)模型構(gòu)建農(nóng)民家庭人均純收入與家庭經(jīng)營(yíng)收入、工資性收入、轉(zhuǎn)移性和財(cái)產(chǎn)性收入關(guān)聯(lián)度指標(biāo)體系;在研究土地對(duì)不同地區(qū)農(nóng)民養(yǎng)育能力差異中,通過聚類分析將河北省各市按照農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展水平進(jìn)行分類,選取經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平不同的廊坊市廣陽區(qū)西莊子村、邯鄲市涉縣赤岸村和西宇莊村作為樣本點(diǎn)進(jìn)行土地養(yǎng)育能力對(duì)比;最后利用灰色系統(tǒng)預(yù)測(cè)模型GM(1,1)預(yù)測(cè)2013~2022年期間第三代農(nóng)民家庭人均純收入及來源演變趨勢(shì)。研究結(jié)果表明:2004年后工資性收入與農(nóng)民家庭人均純收入關(guān)聯(lián)度最大,說明工資性收入對(duì)農(nóng)民家庭收入的貢獻(xiàn)度超過家庭經(jīng)營(yíng)收入,即農(nóng)民收入增長(zhǎng)不依賴家庭經(jīng)營(yíng)收入,農(nóng)民家庭對(duì)土地的依賴度降低,即土地對(duì)農(nóng)民的直接養(yǎng)育能力降低;土地對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展程度不同農(nóng)村的農(nóng)民養(yǎng)育能力存在差異;2013~2022年家庭經(jīng)營(yíng)收入與工資性收入之間的差距繼續(xù)增大,農(nóng)民家庭人均收入非農(nóng)化現(xiàn)象將進(jìn)一步加劇,農(nóng)民家庭對(duì)土地的依賴度繼續(xù)降低,即土地對(duì)農(nóng)民的直接養(yǎng)育能力繼續(xù)降低。最后,基于當(dāng)前土地對(duì)農(nóng)民養(yǎng)育能力現(xiàn)狀,結(jié)合本文的研究結(jié)果,提出解決未來農(nóng)民發(fā)展問題的農(nóng)村土地制度改革與農(nóng)民增收的建議:穩(wěn)定農(nóng)村土地承包經(jīng)營(yíng)制度、增加農(nóng)民的財(cái)產(chǎn)性收入、促進(jìn)土地合理高效流轉(zhuǎn)。
[Abstract]:Land has the function of raising farmers. The difference of farmers' rearing ability between different generations is reflected in the transformation from the most basic production function to the social security function. At the present stage, the cultivation ability of the new generation farmers is lower than that of the first generation farmers, so it is the key to the future development of farmers to study the supply of land to the third generation farmers. Based on the definition of farmers, this paper makes a comparison of the traditional rural areas with different degrees of economic development in Hebei Province, and analyzes the difference of the farmers' rearing ability between different generations and different regions. In the study of the cultivation ability of the new generation of farmers by land, the paper constructs the index system of the correlation degree between the per capita net income of farmers and household management income, wage income, transfer income and property income through grey relational model. In the study of the difference of farmers' rearing ability between different regions, the cities of Hebei Province are classified according to the level of rural economic and social development by cluster analysis, and the village of Xizhuang Village in Guangyang District, Langfang City, which has different level of economic development is selected. Land rearing capacity was compared between Chian Village and Xiyuzhuang Village in Shexian County, Handan City, and the evolution trend of per capita net income and source of the third-generation peasant households during the period from 2013 to 2022 was predicted by using the grey system prediction model GMZ1 / 1. The results show that: after 2004, wage income has the greatest correlation with peasant household per capita net income, which indicates that wage income contributes more to peasant household income than household management income, that is, the increase of peasant income does not depend on household management income. The peasant family's dependence on the land is reduced, that is, the land's direct raising ability to the farmer is reduced; There are differences in the raising ability of farmers in different rural areas with different degrees of land development. The gap between household management income and wage income in 2013-2022 will continue to increase, and the phenomenon of non-agricultural income per capita income of farmers will be further aggravated. The dependence of farmers on land continues to decrease, that is to say, the ability of direct cultivation of land to farmers continues to decrease. Finally, based on the present situation of land to farmers' rearing ability and combining with the research results of this paper, the paper puts forward some suggestions for the reform of rural land system and the increase of farmers' income: to stabilize the rural land contract management system, and to solve the problem of farmers' development in the future. Increase the property income of farmers and promote the rational and efficient circulation of land.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：石家莊經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F323.6;F301

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