本文選題：林產(chǎn)品 + 物流運輸�。� 參考：《中南林業(yè)科技大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：林業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)是國民經(jīng)濟的重要組成部分,湖南省森林資源豐富,自然地理條件優(yōu)越,是林產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)、加工、消費和進出口的大省,湖南省林業(yè)正處于向現(xiàn)代林業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型的重要時期。林產(chǎn)品原材料供應(yīng)地與生產(chǎn)地、消費地存在著地域上的差異,林業(yè)資源分布與消費配置錯位,林產(chǎn)品物流運輸成為調(diào)節(jié)林產(chǎn)品供需平衡的重要杠桿。在湖南省林業(yè)向現(xiàn)代林業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型的關(guān)鍵時期,林產(chǎn)品需求將保持快速增長,因此,有必要加強林產(chǎn)品物流運輸需求預測研究,保障湖南省林產(chǎn)品的供需平衡,推動物流運輸系統(tǒng)的順利運行,以促進林業(yè)的健康發(fā)展。本文以國內(nèi)外林產(chǎn)品物流和物流運輸需求預測研究現(xiàn)狀以及相關(guān)的理論知識為研究基礎(chǔ),首先分析了湖南省林產(chǎn)品物流運輸發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,對林產(chǎn)品的供需現(xiàn)狀和物流運輸基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施現(xiàn)狀兩個方面進行闡述。接著,結(jié)合實際從生產(chǎn)、消費、市場、運輸方式、政策等方面提出了湖南省林產(chǎn)品物流運輸需求的影響因素,對林產(chǎn)品總產(chǎn)值、居民消費水平、林業(yè)固定資產(chǎn)投資總額、鐵路里程、公路里程等林產(chǎn)品物流運輸需求的量化指標進行分析,結(jié)合湖南省歷史數(shù)據(jù)對指標進行SPSS相關(guān)性分析,構(gòu)建指標體系。之后,運用灰色神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)構(gòu)建林產(chǎn)品物流運輸需求預測模型,對湖南省林產(chǎn)品物流運輸需求預測進行實證分析,利用2001-2013年的數(shù)據(jù)進行建模和檢驗,預測出未來三年湖南省林產(chǎn)品物流運輸需求量,并將傳統(tǒng)的需求預測方法與灰色神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預測得到的數(shù)據(jù)值進行對比分析,證明了灰色神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預測方法的優(yōu)越性和準確性。最后,從政策引導、信息標準化、資源整合與產(chǎn)業(yè)集群等方面對湖南省林產(chǎn)品物流運輸未來發(fā)展提出建議。本文將灰色預測模型和神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型進行組合,建立灰色神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預測模型,對湖南省林產(chǎn)品物流運輸需求進行預測,為湖南省未來一定時期內(nèi)的林產(chǎn)品物流運輸系統(tǒng)規(guī)劃提供了理論依據(jù),同時也為國內(nèi)其他地區(qū)林產(chǎn)品物流發(fā)展提供一定的借鑒和參考。
[Abstract]:Forestry industry is an important part of national economy. Hunan Province is a big province of forest products production, processing, consumption, import and export. Hunan Province is in an important period of transition to modern forestry.The distribution of forest resources and the allocation of consumption are misplaced. The logistics transportation of forest products becomes an important lever to adjust the balance between supply and demand of forest products.In the crucial period of the transition from forestry to modern forestry in Hunan Province, the demand for forest products will increase rapidly. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the logistics transportation demand forecasting research of forest products to ensure the balance between supply and demand of forest products in Hunan Province.To promote the smooth operation of logistics transportation system in order to promote the healthy development of forestry.Based on the domestic and foreign forest product logistics and logistics transportation demand forecasting research status and related theoretical knowledge as the research basis, this paper firstly analyzes the development of Hunan forest product logistics transportation.The present situation of supply and demand of forest products and the present situation of logistics and transportation infrastructure are expounded.Then, combined with the actual situation, the paper puts forward the factors affecting the logistics transportation demand of forest products in Hunan Province from the aspects of production, consumption, market, transportation mode and policy, and puts forward the factors affecting the total output value of forest products, the level of consumption of residents, the total investment in fixed assets of forestry, etc.The quantitative indexes of logistics transportation demand of forest products such as railway mileage and highway mileage are analyzed. The SPSS correlation analysis of the indexes is carried out based on the historical data of Hunan Province and the index system is constructed.After that, using the grey neural network to construct the forecast model of forest product logistics transportation demand, this paper makes an empirical analysis of Hunan forest product logistics transportation demand forecasting, and uses the data from 2001 to 2013 to model and test.The demand for forest product logistics transportation in Hunan Province in the next three years is predicted. The comparison between the traditional demand forecasting method and the data value obtained by the grey neural network prediction proves the superiority and accuracy of the grey neural network forecasting method.Finally, suggestions on the future development of forestry product logistics and transportation in Hunan Province are put forward from the aspects of policy guidance, information standardization, resource integration and industrial cluster.In this paper, the grey forecasting model and the neural network model are combined, and the grey neural network forecasting model is established to forecast the logistics transportation demand of forest products in Hunan Province.It provides a theoretical basis for the planning of forest product logistics transportation system in Hunan Province in a certain period of time, and also provides certain reference and reference for the development of forest product logistics in other regions of China.
【學位授予單位】：中南林業(yè)科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F326.6;F326.2

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