發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-08 15:39

  本文選題：土地利用動(dòng)態(tài)變化　切入點(diǎn)：趨勢(shì)預(yù)測　出處：《山東農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：土地是人類生存發(fā)展的最基礎(chǔ)的物質(zhì)條件。隨著人口的增長、社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,人類與土地之間的關(guān)系越來越密切,相互作用也越來越強(qiáng),隨之產(chǎn)生的資源、環(huán)境問題也受到了社會(huì)各界的強(qiáng)烈關(guān)注。土地利用變化己經(jīng)成為引發(fā)環(huán)境變化的一個(gè)主要因素,針對(duì)土地利用變化及其驅(qū)動(dòng)力的研究己成為土地科學(xué)研究的一個(gè)熱點(diǎn)。本文選取山東省萊蕪市為研究對(duì)象,利用萊蕪市2009到2013年5年的土地利用調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),首先分析研究區(qū)域土地利用現(xiàn)狀和動(dòng)態(tài)變化,在此基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合灰色GM(1,1)預(yù)測模型對(duì)該區(qū)域的土地利用趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行預(yù)測。然后采用萊蕪市2004到2013年10年的各項(xiàng)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)影響該區(qū)域土地利用動(dòng)態(tài)變化的驅(qū)動(dòng)力進(jìn)行探究,繼而針對(duì)萊蕪市土地利用變化的驅(qū)動(dòng)因子,提出實(shí)現(xiàn)土地資源合理有效利用的具體實(shí)際措施和建議,對(duì)實(shí)現(xiàn)萊蕪市土地資源可持續(xù)利用具有一定的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文主要研究內(nèi)容如下:(1)土地利用動(dòng)態(tài)變化及趨勢(shì)預(yù)測。5年內(nèi)萊蕪市土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)整體上沒有較大變化,仍以耕地、林地、草地和城鎮(zhèn)村及工礦用地為主要用地類型,四者占比接近80%,但各類土地之間卻發(fā)生了較大轉(zhuǎn)變。土地利用數(shù)量變化。土地利用變化幅度方面,耕地、城鎮(zhèn)村及工礦用地和交通運(yùn)輸用地分別增長了0.34%、6.13%和1.92%,以城鎮(zhèn)村及工礦用地增加幅度最大,從31269.06hm2增加到33185.59 hm2;園地、林地、草地、水域及水利設(shè)施用地和其他土地則呈現(xiàn)負(fù)增長的現(xiàn)象,其中草地減幅最多,由34193.44 hm2減少至32703.59 hm2,幅度為4.36%。變化速度方面,除了城鎮(zhèn)村及工礦用地達(dá)1%以上之外,單一土地利用動(dòng)態(tài)度都比較小,說明土地利用各類型的變化不快。綜合土地利用動(dòng)態(tài)年變化率大約為0.20%,說明萊蕪市土地利用整體轉(zhuǎn)化速度比較慢。土地利用程度變化。從2009年到2013年,土地利用程度綜合指數(shù)從266.55上升到268.42,其土地利用程度變化量ΔL=1.87,變化率R=0.70%,說明該區(qū)域的土地利用處于發(fā)展時(shí)期,人類活動(dòng)對(duì)該區(qū)域土地利用的影響稍有增強(qiáng)。土地利用率較高,從2009年的93.19%到2013年的93.28%,墾殖率則從32.22%到32.33%,幾乎未變化。景觀偏離度從61.21%到62.05%,反映了萊蕪人民強(qiáng)大的對(duì)自然環(huán)境的改造程度。綜合來看,萊蕪市的土地利用程度呈現(xiàn)出微弱的上升趨勢(shì),這表明萊蕪市的土地利用整體水平處于一個(gè)穩(wěn)定發(fā)展且不斷走向成熟的狀態(tài)。土地利用的空間格局變化。萊蕪市2009年與2013年的土地利用多樣性指數(shù)均為1.85,反映了近幾年土地利用多樣性保持相對(duì)穩(wěn)定的狀態(tài);同樣,兩個(gè)年份的土地利用優(yōu)勢(shì)度指數(shù)均為0.23,反映了近幾年萊蕪市一直保持各土地類型所占比例相對(duì)接近;均勻度指數(shù)方面,兩個(gè)年份的土地利用都是0.89,趨近于1,表明該區(qū)域各土地類型的分布均勻程度一直保持較高水平。綜合來看可以發(fā)現(xiàn)該區(qū)域人類的活動(dòng)維持在一個(gè)平衡期,人類對(duì)自然環(huán)境的影響保持穩(wěn)定,土地利用類型向多樣化緩慢發(fā)展。另外,借助GM(1,1)模型對(duì)萊蕪市土地利用變化趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行預(yù)測,結(jié)果表明,萊蕪市土地利用的結(jié)構(gòu)變化不是很大,主要集中在城鎮(zhèn)村及工礦用地、草地、林地,但各類型土地之間的趨勢(shì)變化有較大差異。耕地、城鎮(zhèn)村及工礦用地、交通運(yùn)輸用地面積一直都在增加,其中城鎮(zhèn)村及工礦用地增加最多,2010年到2020年增加了4835.77 hm2;園地、林地、草地、水域及水利設(shè)施用地一直在減少,其中草地減少最多,在2010到2020年之間,共減少了2639.18hm2;其他土地則是先減少后增加,最終合計(jì)減少了14.40 hm2。(2)土地利用動(dòng)態(tài)變化驅(qū)動(dòng)力研究。對(duì)影響該區(qū)域土地利用動(dòng)態(tài)變化的驅(qū)動(dòng)力的定性分析表明,自然驅(qū)動(dòng)力中以地質(zhì)地貌和礦產(chǎn)資源的影響最為顯著。而通過主成分分析法的定量分析,提取了兩個(gè)主成分,將社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)驅(qū)動(dòng)力歸納成2類,即人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和城市發(fā)展與投資情況。由兩個(gè)主成分求出的驅(qū)動(dòng)力的綜合得分,2004年至2013年分別為:-2.14、-1.34、-0.41、0.09、0.91、0.52、0.62、0.76、0.59、0.38。由2004到2006年的負(fù)值逐漸在2007年轉(zhuǎn)化為正值,并在2008年達(dá)到最大,說明影響萊蕪市土地利用變化的驅(qū)動(dòng)力先是大幅度增強(qiáng),后波動(dòng)上升,最后緩慢減弱,說明驅(qū)動(dòng)力因子的影響逐漸減弱。但是總體上來看,萊蕪市土地利用變化的驅(qū)動(dòng)力影響呈現(xiàn)的是上升趨勢(shì)。(3)萊蕪市土地利用的對(duì)策與建議。對(duì)策與建議是土地利用動(dòng)態(tài)變化驅(qū)動(dòng)力研究的最終歸宿,對(duì)土地的合理高效利用有其重要的指導(dǎo)作用。本文在對(duì)土地利用變化分析與預(yù)測及其驅(qū)動(dòng)力研究的基礎(chǔ)上,分別從人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、城市化建設(shè)以及投資等方面提出了優(yōu)化萊蕪市土地利用的對(duì)策與建議。
[Abstract]:Land is the most basic material conditions of human survival and development. With the increase of population, the development of social economy, the relationship between human and land is becoming more and more closely, the interaction is also more and more strong, resulting in resources, environmental problems have also been strong concern from all walks of life. One of the main factors of land use change has the cause of environmental change, the research on land use change and its driving force has become a hot research topic in land science. This paper selects Shandong city of Laiwu Province as the research object, the use of Laiwu city from 2009 to 2013 5 years of land use survey data, we first analyze the current situation and dynamic change of land use in the study area, on the basis of on the combination of grey GM (1,1) model to forecast the trend of land use in the area. Then the influence of the Laiwu city 2004 to 2013 statistics of 10 years in the area of soil The driving force of the dynamic changes of the land use change and driving factors in Laiwu City, put forward specific measures and suggestions to realize actual reasonable and effective utilization of land resources, has a certain theoretical and practical significance to realize the sustainable utilization of land resources in Laiwu city. The main research contents of this paper are as follows: (1) the dynamic changes of land use.5 years and trend prediction of land use in Laiwu city did not change the overall structure, with farmland, woodland, grassland and urban village and industrial land is the main land use types, the four accounted for nearly 80%, but between the various types of land has undergone great changes. The quantitative changes of land use. Land use change rate, arable land, urban village and industrial land and transportation land increased by 0.34%, 6.13% and 1.92% in urban village and industrial land increased most significantly, increased from 31269.06hm2 to 33 185.59 hm2; garden, woodland, grassland, water and water conservancy facilities land and other land showed a negative growth phenomenon, the grass or most, reduced from 34193.44 hm2 to 32703.59 Hm2, amplitude of 4.36%. change speed, in addition to urban village and industrial land of 1% above, the single dynamic degree of land use are relatively small that, the land use change type is not fast. The comprehensive land use dynamic change rate of about 0.20%, Laiwu city land use overall conversion speed is relatively slow. The degree of land use change. From 2009 to 2013, the land use degree index rose from 266.55 to 268.42, the degree of land use change quantity Delta L=1.87 the change rate of R=0.70%, indicating the development in the period of land use in the area, the impact of human activities on the land use is slightly enhanced. The land utilization rate is higher, from 93.19% in 2009 to 2013 93.28% years, the reclamation rate ranging from 32.22% to 32.33%, almost no change. Landscape deviation from 61.21% to 62.05%, reflecting the strong Laiwu people on the natural environment. The comprehensive transformation, Laiwu city land use degree showing a slight upward trend, which indicates that the overall level of land use in Laiwu city in a stable development and mature state. The spatial pattern change of land use in Laiwu city in 2009 and 2013. The land use diversity index was 1.85, reflecting the diversity of land use in recent years to maintain a relatively stable state; similarly, two year land use index was 0.23, reflecting the Laiwu city in recent years has maintained various land types in the proportion of relatively close; evenness index, two year land use is 0.89, close to 1, showed that the distribution of various land types in the region are The degree of uniformity has been maintained at high levels. It is found that the whole area of human activity to maintain a balance, the human impact on the natural environment remains stable, the land use type to diversification development slowly. In addition, with the help of GM (1,1) model to predict the trend of land use change in Laiwu city. The results showed that the land in Laiwu city the structure change is not large, mainly concentrated in the urban village and industrial land, grassland, woodland, but there is a big difference between the various types of land. The trend change of cultivated land, urban village and industrial land, transportation land area has been increasing, the urban village and industrial land increased most, 2010 to 2020 increased by 4835.77 hm2; garden, woodland, grassland, water and water conservancy facilities land has been reduced, the grassland decreased most, between 2010 and 2020, a total reduction of 2639.18hm2; the other is the land Decreased first and then increased, the final total reduction of 14.40 hm2. (2) land use change driving force of the driving force. The qualitative influence on the dynamic change of regional land use analysis shows that the natural driving force in the influence of geological and mineral resources is the most significant. Through quantitative analysis and principal component analysis and two main components were extracted, the social economic driving force into 2 categories, namely, population and economic growth and city development and investment. The comprehensive score of driving force calculated by two principal components, from 2004 to 2013 were: -2.14, -1.34, -0.41,0.09,0.91,0.52,0.62,0.76,0.59,0.38. from 2004 to 2006, the negative value gradually in 2007 the transformation is positive, and reached the maximum in 2008, shows the influence of land use change in Laiwu city driving force is greatly enhanced after the first, increased volatility, finally decreases slowly, said Ming drive factor Effect is gradually weakened. But overall, Laiwu city land use changes the driving force effect is increased. (3) the countermeasures and suggestions of land use in Laiwu city. The countermeasures and suggestions of land use is the final destination of the driving force of the dynamic changes of land, reasonable utilization has an important guiding role. Based on the analysis and prediction of land use change and its driving force research foundation, respectively from the population, economic development, and puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to optimize the land use of Laiwu city construction and investment.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F301.2

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本文編號(hào)：1722245