本文選題：土地利用　切入點：演變　出處：《農(nóng)業(yè)工程學(xué)報》2017年19期

【摘要】：為深入研究三峽庫區(qū)蓄水以來土地利用演變規(guī)律及驅(qū)動機(jī)制,該研究以庫區(qū)2000、2007及2014年的Landsat TM遙感影像作為數(shù)據(jù)源,在運用ARCGIS10.1對庫區(qū)土地利用現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析的基礎(chǔ)上;基于多標(biāo)準(zhǔn)評價(multi-criteria evaluation,MCE)的元胞自動機(jī)和馬爾可夫鏈(CA-Markov)模擬庫區(qū)自組織的土地利用演變;并利用多時相的遙感分類圖像檢驗MCE-CA-Markov的模擬精度,經(jīng)檢驗,其Kappa系數(shù)達(dá)到0.971 2;利用檢驗過的土地利用演變限制條件及因子組合來對庫區(qū)2028年土地利用進(jìn)行預(yù)測。研究結(jié)果表明:運用MCE-CA-Markov模擬土地利用演變規(guī)律是可行的;在2000—2014年間,庫區(qū)土地利用變化圖譜面積由大到小排序為穩(wěn)定變化型后期變化型前期變化型反復(fù)變化型持續(xù)變化型;模擬得到庫區(qū)2014年土地利用格局與解譯的土地利用格局一致,相對精度達(dá)到84.48%;預(yù)測到2028年時,庫區(qū)耕地、林地及草地繼續(xù)減少,水域、建設(shè)用地及未利用地持續(xù)增加,預(yù)測結(jié)果表明三峽庫區(qū)土地利用變化十分活躍,生態(tài)環(huán)境恢復(fù)和重建的壓力很大。因此,迫切需要加強(qiáng)三峽庫區(qū)耕地、林地和草地的保護(hù),控制和阻止盲目開墾耕地的行為,促進(jìn)庫區(qū)生態(tài)環(huán)境的保護(hù)和改善。研究結(jié)果以期為三峽庫區(qū)土地利用規(guī)劃、城市建設(shè)以及生態(tài)環(huán)境修復(fù)提供理論支撐。
[Abstract]:In order to study the evolution of land use and its driving mechanism since the water storage in the three Gorges Reservoir area, the Landsat TM remote sensing images of the three Gorges Reservoir area in 2007 and 2014 were used as the data sources, and the present situation of land use in the reservoir area was analyzed by using ARCGIS10.1.The cellular automata and Markov chain CA-Markovs based on multi-criteria evaluation are used to simulate the self-organized land use evolution in the reservoir area, and the simulation accuracy of MCE-CA-Markov is verified by using multi-temporal remote sensing classification images.The Kappa coefficient is 0.971, and the land use in 2028 is predicted by using the tested limiting conditions and combination of factors.The results show that it is feasible to use MCE-CA-Markov to simulate the law of land use evolution, and from 2000 to 2014, the map area of land use change in the reservoir area is ranked from large to small to stable change type, early change type, repeated change type, continuous change type.The simulation shows that the land use pattern of the reservoir area in 2014 is consistent with that of the interpreted land use pattern, and the relative precision is 84.48. By 2028, the cultivated land, forest land and grassland in the reservoir area will continue to decrease, while the water area, construction land and unused land will continue to increase.The prediction results show that the land use change is very active in the three Gorges Reservoir area, and the pressure of ecological environment restoration and reconstruction is very great.Therefore, there is an urgent need to strengthen the protection of cultivated land, woodland and grassland in the three Gorges Reservoir area, to control and prevent the behavior of blindly reclaiming cultivated land, and to promote the protection and improvement of ecological environment in the reservoir area.The results are expected to provide theoretical support for land use planning, urban construction and ecological environment restoration in the three Gorges Reservoir area.
【作者單位】： 重慶工商大學(xué)環(huán)境與資源學(xué)院;重慶工商大學(xué)旅游與國土資源學(xué)院;重慶工商大學(xué)融智學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(41101503) 重慶市教委科技項目(KJ1601901) 重慶工商大學(xué)融智學(xué)院科研項目(20158001);重慶工商大學(xué)研究生創(chuàng)新型科研項目(yjscxx2017-066-63)
【分類號】：F224;F301.2

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 曹銀貴;周偉;許寧;;基于典型相關(guān)分析的三峽庫區(qū)土地利用變化研究[J];中國國土資源經(jīng)濟(jì);2007年03期

，

本文編號：1685930