本文選題：江蘇省　切入點(diǎn)：糧食產(chǎn)量波動(dòng)　出處：《中共江蘇省委黨校》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：江蘇省是我國(guó)糧食主產(chǎn)省份之一,是南方最大的粳稻生產(chǎn)省份,又是全國(guó)優(yōu)質(zhì)弱筋小麥生產(chǎn)優(yōu)勢(shì)區(qū),江蘇省糧食產(chǎn)量的增產(chǎn)穩(wěn)產(chǎn)不僅對(duì)地區(qū)而且對(duì)全國(guó)都具有重要意義。本文以江蘇省為研究對(duì)象,運(yùn)用經(jīng)驗(yàn)?zāi)B(tài)分解方法(EMD)對(duì)其1978-2015年的糧食產(chǎn)量數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分解,得到不同時(shí)間尺度的波動(dòng)項(xiàng)以及趨勢(shì)項(xiàng)。通過(guò)對(duì)波動(dòng)項(xiàng)的分析較為全面的把握江蘇省糧食產(chǎn)量波動(dòng)的特征,并進(jìn)一步考察不同時(shí)間尺度波動(dòng)的影響因素,從而為穩(wěn)定江蘇省糧食生產(chǎn)提供政策建議。本文主要得出以下結(jié)論:(1)考察期間,江蘇省糧食產(chǎn)量波動(dòng)大致可分為3個(gè)階段,每個(gè)階段影響產(chǎn)量波動(dòng)的主導(dǎo)因素并不相同。(2)考慮江蘇省糧食產(chǎn)量波動(dòng)的結(jié)構(gòu)特征,發(fā)現(xiàn)無(wú)論是稻谷、小麥產(chǎn)量的波動(dòng)還是蘇南、蘇中、蘇北三大地區(qū)各自糧食產(chǎn)量的波動(dòng),都可以大致劃分為3個(gè)階段,并且與全省糧食產(chǎn)量波動(dòng)階段劃分情況基本一致。作物方面,如果保持目前稻谷的趨勢(shì)產(chǎn)量占比的話,稻谷產(chǎn)量變異率每提高1個(gè)百分點(diǎn),糧食總產(chǎn)變異率將提高大約0.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn);小麥產(chǎn)量變異率每提高1個(gè)百分點(diǎn),糧食總產(chǎn)變異率將提高大約0.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。地區(qū)方面,蘇北地區(qū)對(duì)全省糧食產(chǎn)量波動(dòng)的影響是最大的,若保持當(dāng)前蘇北地區(qū)趨勢(shì)產(chǎn)量占比的話,其糧食產(chǎn)量變異率每提高一個(gè)百分點(diǎn),則全省糧食產(chǎn)量變異率將提高大約0.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。(3)江蘇省糧食產(chǎn)量波動(dòng)可以分為準(zhǔn)3年和準(zhǔn)12.6年周期波動(dòng),并以準(zhǔn)12.6年周期波動(dòng)為主。糧食單產(chǎn)波動(dòng)分為準(zhǔn)3年、6年和15年周期波動(dòng),并以準(zhǔn)15年周期波動(dòng)為主;糧食播種面積波動(dòng)分為準(zhǔn)4年和準(zhǔn)8年周期波動(dòng),并以準(zhǔn)8年周期波動(dòng)為主。糧食單產(chǎn)準(zhǔn)3年周期波動(dòng)主要由氣象災(zāi)害所導(dǎo)致,而準(zhǔn)15年周期波動(dòng)受到氣象災(zāi)害和經(jīng)居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)調(diào)整后的糧食收購(gòu)價(jià)(2001年以后為農(nóng)產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)價(jià)格)的共同影響,但價(jià)格的影響要滯后2年。播種面積準(zhǔn)8年周期波動(dòng)同樣受到經(jīng)居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)調(diào)整后的糧食收購(gòu)價(jià)格的影響,但其影響要滯后3年。此外,無(wú)論是全省糧食單產(chǎn)波動(dòng)還是播種面積波動(dòng)都具有明顯的政策含義,主要表現(xiàn)為幾個(gè)波谷,即1978年、1992年和2003年,都與我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)政策的重大調(diào)整相對(duì)應(yīng)。本文最后根據(jù)分析結(jié)論提出了相應(yīng)的政策建議:(1)應(yīng)重視小麥產(chǎn)量波動(dòng)對(duì)江蘇省糧食產(chǎn)量波動(dòng)的影響,并積極采取措施穩(wěn)定其生產(chǎn),如研發(fā)高產(chǎn)高抗性的小麥品種、加大農(nóng)業(yè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)、增強(qiáng)抗災(zāi)能力、促進(jìn)土地流轉(zhuǎn)減少耕地拋荒等。(2)應(yīng)加大對(duì)蘇北地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展的財(cái)政支持力度,尤其是要重點(diǎn)支持能夠增強(qiáng)抗災(zāi)能力的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)和科研項(xiàng)目,改良中低產(chǎn)田,提高有效灌溉率等。(3)穩(wěn)定的價(jià)格預(yù)期以及穩(wěn)定的政策環(huán)境對(duì)于穩(wěn)定糧食生產(chǎn)、減弱波動(dòng)具有重要意義。尤其是糧食價(jià)格對(duì)無(wú)論是單產(chǎn)還是播種面積都具有一定程度的滯后影響的情況下,更要注意價(jià)格政策的長(zhǎng)期影響。
[Abstract]:Jiangsu Province is one of the major grain production provinces in China, is the largest japonica rice production province in the south, and is also the dominant region for the production of high-quality and weak gluten wheat in the country. The increase and stable yield of grain production in Jiangsu Province is of great significance not only to the region but also to the whole country. In this paper, the empirical mode decomposition method is used to decompose the grain yield data from 1978 to 2015 in Jiangsu Province. The fluctuation items and trend terms of different time scales are obtained. Through the analysis of the fluctuation items, the characteristics of grain yield fluctuation in Jiangsu Province are comprehensively grasped, and the influencing factors of the fluctuation in different time scales are further investigated. This paper draws the following conclusions: during the inspection period, the fluctuation of grain production in Jiangsu Province can be roughly divided into three stages. Considering the structural characteristics of grain yield fluctuation in Jiangsu Province, it is found that the fluctuation of rice, wheat yield and grain yield in the three regions of southern Jiangsu, central Jiangsu and northern Jiangsu are different in each stage. All of them can be roughly divided into three stages, and are basically consistent with the division of grain yield fluctuation stage in the whole province. In terms of crops, if the current trend of rice yield is maintained, the yield variation rate of rice increases by 1 percentage point. The variation rate of total grain yield will increase by about 0.6 percentage points, and the variation rate of total grain yield will increase by about 0.3 percentage points if the variation rate of wheat yield increases by 1 percentage point. Northern Jiangsu has the greatest impact on the fluctuation of grain production in the province. If the current trend of grain production in northern Jiangsu is maintained, the variation rate of grain yield will increase by one percentage point. The variation rate of grain yield in Jiangsu Province will increase by about 0.6 percentage points.) the fluctuation of grain yield in Jiangsu Province can be divided into quasi-3 years and quasi-12.6 years cycle fluctuations. The fluctuation of grain yield was divided into 3 years, 6 years and 15 years, and the fluctuation of grain sown area was divided into 4 years and 8 years, the fluctuation of grain yield was divided into 3 years, 6 years and 15 years, and the fluctuation of grain sown area was divided into 4 years and 8 years. The quasi 8-year periodic fluctuation is the main factor, and the quasi-3-year periodic fluctuation of grain yield is mainly caused by meteorological disasters. The quasi-15-year cycle fluctuations are affected by both meteorological disasters and grain purchase prices adjusted by the consumer price index of residents (the prices of agricultural products produced after 2001). But the effect of price is two years behind. The quasi-8-year periodic fluctuation of sown area is also affected by the price of grain purchase adjusted by the consumer price index, but the effect is delayed by three years. Both the fluctuation of grain yield and the fluctuation of sowing area have obvious policy implications, which are mainly manifested in several troughs, that is, 1978, 1992 and 2003. Finally, according to the conclusion of the analysis, the paper puts forward the corresponding policy suggestion: 1) We should pay attention to the influence of wheat yield fluctuation on grain yield fluctuation in Jiangsu Province, and take active measures to stabilize its production. For example, to develop wheat varieties with high yield and high resistance, to increase the construction of agricultural infrastructure, to enhance the ability to resist disasters, to promote land circulation and reduce the wastage of cultivated land, etc.) to increase the financial support for agricultural development in northern Jiangsu. In particular, emphasis should be placed on supporting infrastructure construction and scientific research projects that can enhance resilience to disasters, improving medium-to-low yield fields, increasing effective irrigation rates, etc.) stable price expectations and a stable policy environment are necessary to stabilize food production. It is important to weaken the fluctuation, especially if the grain price has a lag effect on both the yield and the sowing area, we should pay more attention to the long-term influence of price policy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中共江蘇省委黨校
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F326.11

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本文編號(hào)：1567596