本文關(guān)鍵詞： 南疆三地州 反貧困 農(nóng)村人力資源開發(fā) 灰色關(guān)聯(lián) 有序Probit模型　出處：《石河子大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：貧困是人類社會的難點問題,它不僅嚴重阻礙社會、經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展,也是誘發(fā)地區(qū)沖突、社會不穩(wěn)定和環(huán)境惡化等問題的重要根源之一。南疆三地州作為我國典型的民族集中連片貧困區(qū),長期的物質(zhì)資本投入式的“輸血型”扶貧政策,并未有效改善貧困群體的生活境遇。從農(nóng)村人力資源開發(fā)視角出發(fā),探尋通過提升生產(chǎn)能力和抵御風(fēng)險能力推動貧困群體脫貧致富的具體路徑,成為南疆三地州扶貧開發(fā)工作的新突破口。論文運用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析、綜合評價、VAR模型和有序Probit模型等統(tǒng)計分析方法,對人力資源開發(fā)與反貧困的關(guān)聯(lián)程度、人力資源開發(fā)對反貧困的貢獻以及農(nóng)村人力資源開發(fā)的障礙因素及內(nèi)在機理進行了系統(tǒng)研究。首先,介紹了研究背景和意義,對國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀進行了綜述,在界定清楚核心概念的基礎(chǔ)上,夯實了論文研究的理論支撐。其次,對南疆三地州貧困現(xiàn)狀、反貧困模式以及反貧困模式的成效進行描述和測算。南疆三地州是我國貧困面積最大、貧困人口最集中、貧困程度最深、貧困問題最復(fù)雜和脫貧難度最大的地區(qū)。同時南疆三地州的反貧困模式涉及民生工程建設(shè)、社會幫扶、產(chǎn)業(yè)化扶貧和農(nóng)村人力資源開發(fā)等,農(nóng)村人力資源開發(fā)是其中成效最明顯,與反貧困成效關(guān)系最緊密的一項扶貧模式。第三,運用綜合評價法對農(nóng)村人力資源開發(fā)和反貧困成效進行評價,并運用VAR模型的脈沖響應(yīng)分析和方差分解分析探討農(nóng)村人力資源開發(fā)對反貧困成效的長期作用。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),農(nóng)村人力資源開發(fā)在南疆三地州反貧困進程中發(fā)揮著長期、顯著的推動作用。最后,利用有序Probit模型,建立南疆三地州農(nóng)村人力資源開發(fā)影響因素的分析模型。結(jié)果表明:宗教、民族文化和傳統(tǒng)生活習(xí)慣誘發(fā)的農(nóng)民安于現(xiàn)狀、不思進取以及多子多福的價值取向,阻礙了農(nóng)村勞動力人力資本存量的提升和人口資源的優(yōu)化配置,而通過基礎(chǔ)教育、職業(yè)技能培訓(xùn)、通用語言培訓(xùn)以及文化宣傳等方式可以有效打破農(nóng)村勞動力的傳統(tǒng)觀念,激發(fā)農(nóng)村勞動力的培訓(xùn)熱情和興趣,實現(xiàn)農(nóng)村勞動力人力資本的積累和農(nóng)民城鄉(xiāng)之間的合理流動。本論文從農(nóng)村人力資源開發(fā)的視角研究南疆三地州的反貧困問題,獲取了一些有價值的研究結(jié)果和數(shù)據(jù),研究成果對南疆三地州政府制定扶貧開發(fā)政策具有極強的參考價值。
[Abstract]:Poverty is a difficult problem in human society. It not only seriously impedes the development of society and economy, but also induces regional conflicts. One of the major causes of social instability and environmental deterioration. As a typical poverty-stricken region of China, the three prefectures of southern Xinjiang have a long-term "transfusion type" poverty alleviation policy with material capital input. It has not effectively improved the living conditions of the poor groups. From the perspective of human resources development in rural areas, this paper explores the specific ways to promote the poor groups to get rid of poverty and become rich through enhancing their productive capacity and resisting risks. It has become a new breakthrough in poverty alleviation and development in the three prefectures of southern Xinjiang. The paper uses grey relational analysis, synthetically evaluates the statistical analysis methods such as VAR model and ordered Probit model, to the degree of connection between human resource development and anti-poverty. The contribution of human resource development to anti-poverty and the obstacles and internal mechanism of rural human resource development are systematically studied. Firstly, the background and significance of the research are introduced, and the current research situation at home and abroad is summarized. On the basis of defining the core concept clearly, this paper rammed up the theoretical support of the thesis. Secondly, the poverty situation in the three states of southern Xinjiang is analyzed. The results of the anti-poverty model and the anti-poverty model are described and measured. The three prefectures in southern Xinjiang are the largest poverty-stricken areas in China, with the most concentrated population and the deepest degree of poverty. The poverty problem is the most complex and difficult to get rid of. At the same time, the anti-poverty model of the three states in southern Xinjiang involves the construction of people's livelihood projects, social assistance, industrialized poverty alleviation and rural human resources development, etc. Rural human resources development is one of the most effective and closely related poverty alleviation model. Third, the comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the rural human resources development and anti-poverty effectiveness. Using the pulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis of VAR model, the paper discusses the long-term effect of rural human resource development on anti-poverty effect. The study finds that rural human resource development plays a long-term role in the process of anti-poverty in the three states of southern Xinjiang. Finally, by using the ordered Probit model, an analysis model of the influencing factors of rural human resource development in the three states of southern Xinjiang is established. The results show that the farmers are content with the present situation induced by religion, national culture and traditional living habits. The value orientation of not wanting to be enterprising and having more children and more happiness hinders the improvement of the human capital stock of rural labor force and the optimal allocation of population resources, and through basic education, vocational skills training, Common language training and cultural propaganda can effectively break the traditional concept of rural labor force, stimulate rural labor training enthusiasm and interest. This paper studies the anti-poverty problem in the three states of southern Xinjiang from the perspective of rural human resources development, and obtains some valuable research results and data. The research results have a strong reference value for the three governments in southern Xinjiang to formulate poverty alleviation and development policies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：石河子大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F323.8

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