本文關(guān)鍵詞： DLS模型 Markov模型 喀斯特 Logistics 情景模擬　出處：《西安科技大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：土地利用變化受到多種地形地貌等自然環(huán)境因子和人口密度、GDP等社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)因子共同影響作用,針對(duì)土地利用變化進(jìn)行研究為未來(lái)土地資源的合理配置提供了重要的決策依據(jù),這也是研究全球環(huán)境變化和資源可持續(xù)發(fā)展利用戰(zhàn)略的重要組成部分。土地利用變化研究主要集中在應(yīng)用不同模型和尺度進(jìn)行土地利用動(dòng)態(tài)模擬、不同地域特征的土地利用變化模擬和特定情景約束下的土地利用變化模擬等。近年來(lái),受經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展和區(qū)域土地嚴(yán)重退化的影響,喀斯特山區(qū)土地利用變化劇烈,而針對(duì)特定的喀斯特山區(qū)的土地利用變化特征及空間分布進(jìn)行分析研究,對(duì)未來(lái)該區(qū)域土地利用的合理的規(guī)劃管理和土地石漠化現(xiàn)象的治理具有重要意義。因此,本文以1990年、2000年和2010年三期土地利用現(xiàn)狀數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),借助ArcGIS和SPSS軟件,分析研究了喀斯特區(qū)域土地利用變化的空間分布特征和不同驅(qū)動(dòng)因素對(duì)各土地利用類型變化的影響機(jī)制,后結(jié)合Markov模型和DLS模型基于自然增長(zhǎng)、土地優(yōu)化、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和生態(tài)保護(hù)四種不同情景研究2030年該區(qū)域的土地利用空間分布。主要研究結(jié)論如下:(1)1990-2010年,喀斯特區(qū)域土地利用變化劇烈,不同類型土地的變化速率不同,其中林地和建設(shè)用地面積迅速增加,變化幅度較大。與前期相比,2000年以后土地利用變化劇烈,綜合土地利用動(dòng)態(tài)度為8.25,說(shuō)明人類開發(fā)利用自然環(huán)境的速率增大,對(duì)土地利用的影響程度也逐漸增大。(2)應(yīng)用Logistic回歸分析對(duì)喀斯特區(qū)域土地利用變化影響較為顯著地多種驅(qū)動(dòng)力因子及其驅(qū)動(dòng)作用機(jī)制進(jìn)行定量的分析研究,結(jié)果顯示:對(duì)耕地表現(xiàn)敏感的影響因素較多,人口越多的地方越適宜耕地的分布;降水對(duì)于林地分布的影響最大,石漠化嚴(yán)重的地方林地分布概率較小;對(duì)于草地分布較多的影響因素中,石漠化等級(jí)最為敏感,石漠化分布的區(qū)域草地的分布的概率較大;對(duì)于水域的影響只有與河流的距離變現(xiàn)最為敏感;對(duì)于建設(shè)用地分布的影響因素較多,其中,GDP、POP、巖性等影響因素最為敏感。(3)以研究區(qū)2000年的土地利用現(xiàn)狀數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),在自然因素和社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)因素方面選取了坡度、海拔、與離河流的距離、與道路的距離、與鐵路的距離、人口密度以及人均GDP等13個(gè)驅(qū)動(dòng)因子,運(yùn)用DLS模型對(duì)研究區(qū)2010年的土地利用變化分布格局進(jìn)行模擬,模擬結(jié)果與2010年實(shí)際土地利用數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證,結(jié)果顯示:模擬結(jié)果Kappa指數(shù)達(dá)到0.89,說(shuō)明DLS模型能夠較好的模擬喀斯特區(qū)域的土地利用變化空間分布格局。(4)基于自然增長(zhǎng)、土地優(yōu)化、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和生態(tài)保護(hù)4種情景的土地利用變化模擬發(fā)現(xiàn),隨著時(shí)間的變化,人類對(duì)土地資源的開發(fā)利用強(qiáng)度逐漸增大,且研究區(qū)未來(lái)的土地利用變化趨勢(shì)更加明顯,主要表現(xiàn)為:林地和建設(shè)用地面積不同幅度的增加,來(lái)源于耕地面積和草地面積的減小,其中,建設(shè)用地呈現(xiàn)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì)歸因于喀斯特區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展、人口的劇烈增加及其區(qū)域的城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程明顯加速等外在的外在作用;耕地減少變化趨勢(shì)逐漸減弱,源于退耕還林和基本農(nóng)田保護(hù)政策的推行;喀斯特區(qū)域的林地面積總體上是呈現(xiàn)逐漸增加的趨勢(shì),主要原因是受國(guó)家退耕還林工程及植樹造林等大的政策的影響;草地面積逐漸較少,減少幅度降低;水域面積變化受自然環(huán)境的影響程度較大。(5)研究表明DLS模型對(duì)于喀斯特區(qū)域的土地利用變化研究具有較強(qiáng)的適用性,研究結(jié)論能夠?yàn)橄嚓P(guān)部門以及以后的研究者利用DLS模型在類似研究區(qū)域下的研究提供一定的參考價(jià)值和借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:Land use change by a variety of topography and other natural environmental factors and population density, GDP and other social and economic factors influence on the land use change research provides an important basis for the decision-making of rational allocation of land resources in the future, it is also an important component of the strategy of global environmental change and sustainable development of land resources. The changes are mainly concentrated in the application of different models and the scale of land use dynamic simulation, different geographical characteristics of the land use change simulation and the specific situation under the constraint of land use change simulation. In recent years, affected by the rapid economic development and land degradation, land use change and in the mountainous area of Karst, this paper studies land use change characteristics and spatial distribution of specific mountain in Karst, on the future of the regional land use Has an important significance in governance and rational planning management and land desertification phenomena. Therefore, in 1990, 2000 and 2010 three the status of land use data as the basis, using ArcGIS and SPSS software, analyzed the influence mechanism of Karst region land use change in the distribution of spatial characteristics and driving factors of different use types change to the the land, after the combination of Markov model and DLS model based on the natural growth, land optimization, economic development and ecological protection of four different scenarios on 2030 in the area of land use spatial distribution. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) 1990-2010 years, Karst regional land use change, the rate of change of different types of land, including land and the area of construction land increased rapidly, greatly changed. Compared with the previous, after 2000 the rapid change of land use, comprehensive land use dynamic degree is 8.2 5, human development and utilization rate of natural environment increases, also increases the influence degree of the land use. (2) the application of Logistic regression analysis, the effects of land use change in Karst region is significantly various driving forces and driving mechanism quantitatively shows: many factors impact on the performance of sensitive land population, more places more suitable land distribution; influence on the distribution of the maximum precipitation in woodland, rocky desertification woodland place low probability distribution of severe; the factors that affect the distribution of more grassland, rocky desertification is the most sensitive, the regional distribution of grassland distribution of rocky desertification in the greater probability for the effect of water; only the distance from the river. The most sensitive; land for the distribution of many factors, including construction, GDP, POP, etc. influence factors lithology is most sensitive (3) to study. The present land use data in 2000 as the foundation, in the aspects of natural factors and social economic factors selected slope, elevation, and the distance from river, and the distance from the road and railway distance, population density and per capita GDP 13 driving factors, using DLS model to simulate the research area of land use change in 2010 the distribution pattern of simulation results, and the actual data of land use in 2010 showed that the simulation results of Kappa index reached 0.89, which indicates that the DLS model can space of land use change in Karst region better simulate the distribution pattern. (4) land optimization based on natural growth, economic development and ecological protection of land use change in 4 scenarios the simulation shows that, with the change of time, the development and utilization of human strength of land resources increased gradually, and the study area of future land use change trend is more obvious, the main table Now: the forest land and construction land area increased with different extent, decrease from cultivated land and grassland in the rapid development of construction land showed an increasing trend due to the regional economy in Karst, the process of urbanization has increased dramatically and its regional population significantly accelerated the external role of external; the reduction of cultivated land change the trend gradually weakened, in returning farmland to forest and farmland protection policy; forest area overall Karst area is gradually increased, the main reason is the influence by the national policy of returning farmland to forest project and other large afforestation; grassland area gradually less, reduce the rate of change of water area was reduced; the influence degree of the natural environment. (5) study showed that the DLS model is applicable for the study of land use change in Karst region, the conclusion of the study is related to The Department and later researchers use the DLS model to provide some reference value and reference for the research under similar research areas.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F301.2;P208

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