本文關鍵詞： 土地利用 人口空間分布 生態(tài)足跡 生態(tài)承載力　出處：《江西農(nóng)業(yè)大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：可持續(xù)發(fā)展的核心問題是資源環(huán)境可否持續(xù)利用的問題。人們?yōu)榱俗非蠼?jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展,對自然資源的利用大大超過了資源的更新能力,造成資源供給不足,嚴重威脅著人類的生存和發(fā)展。生態(tài)承載力研究作為評價可持續(xù)發(fā)展的重要方法之一,在生態(tài)學、環(huán)境科學、資源學和經(jīng)濟學結(jié)合的基礎上綜合評估人類的活動是否在地球資源可承受的范圍之內(nèi)。當人們意識到生態(tài)承載力是問題關鍵時,各國學者開啟了積極的探索之路。目前有關于生態(tài)承載力的研究大多數(shù)都是以行政區(qū)域作為單元,以探究行政區(qū)范圍的生態(tài)承載力狀況,而缺乏對行政區(qū)內(nèi)部生態(tài)承載力的分析評價。本文結(jié)合土地利用,運用新興的GIS技術探尋小尺度的生態(tài)承載力狀況將是一個全新的視角。本文以南昌市(包括四縣五區(qū))作為研究區(qū),對2012年的TM遙感影像圖進行解譯提取土地利用數(shù)據(jù),并聯(lián)合2000年、2005年和2010年3期的土地利用數(shù)據(jù),運用GIS格網(wǎng)技術方法,分城鎮(zhèn)和農(nóng)村分別模擬人口空間分布,在此基礎上,運用生態(tài)足跡方法,對研究區(qū)進行了分別以市域、縣區(qū)和格網(wǎng)為評價單元的生態(tài)承載力評價,探究了2000-2012年生態(tài)承載力狀況的動態(tài)變化過程,分析了生態(tài)承載力變化的原因,以及針對研究區(qū)目前的生態(tài)承載力狀況提出了控制人口規(guī)模,嚴把土地利用方式轉(zhuǎn)變關等建議和對策。得到的主要結(jié)論有:(1)通過解譯結(jié)果可知,南昌市域范圍土地利用類型中,耕地是分布最為廣泛的,其所占面積最大,林地、水域和建設用地面積依次遞減。在2000年到2012年間,耕地和林地面積整體呈下降趨勢,建設用地總量不斷升高,耕地和林地轉(zhuǎn)換為建設用地的趨勢明顯。(2)在人口空間分布的模擬中,城鎮(zhèn)人口的空間分布呈現(xiàn)出由圈層內(nèi)向圈層外遞減的趨勢,越靠近城市中心,人口越密集,這一點在整個南昌市區(qū)(包括5個區(qū))表現(xiàn)的尤為明顯。而鄉(xiāng)村人口的空間分布與研究區(qū)土地利用類型中的農(nóng)村居民點、耕地和林地的面積成正相關關系,其中與農(nóng)村居民點的相關性最大,相關性系數(shù)值為26.663,耕地次之,其值為3.584,與林地的相關性最弱,其系數(shù)值為0.403。在整個研究區(qū)人口空間分布的模擬結(jié)果中,模擬人口數(shù)與統(tǒng)計人口數(shù)相差2.49萬人,基本上達到了人口總數(shù)模擬一致的要求。(3)2012年整個研究區(qū)的人均生態(tài)足跡為1.295,人均生態(tài)承載力為0.460,生態(tài)承載力供需差值為-0.835,生態(tài)承載力評價狀態(tài)表現(xiàn)為生態(tài)赤字。在分縣區(qū)進行生態(tài)承載力評價時,南昌市(包括5個區(qū))表現(xiàn)為生態(tài)赤字,而南昌縣、新建縣、進賢縣和安義縣都表現(xiàn)為生態(tài)敏感。在格網(wǎng)上對研究區(qū)進行生態(tài)承載力評價時,生態(tài)赤字區(qū)、生態(tài)敏感區(qū)、生態(tài)持平區(qū)和生態(tài)盈余區(qū)均有分布,生態(tài)承載力狀態(tài)在很大程度上與土地利用類型契合,主要表現(xiàn)在:生態(tài)赤字區(qū)和生態(tài)敏感區(qū)多對應于土地利用類型中的建設用地區(qū),生態(tài)持平區(qū)多對應于耕地區(qū)和未利用地區(qū),生態(tài)盈余區(qū)多對應于林地區(qū)和水域。(4)2000年到2012年間,研究區(qū)范圍內(nèi)生態(tài)承載力變化最明顯的就是生態(tài)赤字區(qū)的范圍,從2000年的南昌市市區(qū)小范圍逐漸擴展,到2012年的大范圍的生態(tài)赤字區(qū),不僅原來的市中心較小范圍的生態(tài)赤字區(qū)成“攤大餅”式的擴展,呈現(xiàn)出生態(tài)赤字由點到面式的擴展。進賢和安義中心城區(qū)也呈現(xiàn)出生態(tài)赤字由點到面式的擴展,同時,在整個研究區(qū)范圍內(nèi),生態(tài)赤字區(qū)和生態(tài)敏感區(qū)跟隨路網(wǎng)的延伸而蔓延。
[Abstract]:The core of sustainable development is the sustainable utilization of resources and environmental problems will. People in the pursuit of rapid economic development, regeneration and utilization of natural resources greatly exceeded the resources, resulting in insufficient supply of resources, a serious threat to human survival and development. The ecological carrying capacity research as one of the important methods in the evaluation of sustainable development ecology, environmental science, economics and resource based on the combination of comprehensive evaluation of human activities within the scope of the earth's resources can bear. When people are aware of the ecological carrying capacity is the key problem, scholars opened the active exploration of the road. There are studies on the ecological carrying capacity of most of the administrative region as a unit, to explore the scope of administrative area of ecological carrying capacity, and the lack of analysis and evaluation of the ecological carrying capacity within the administrative region. Combining with the land The status of ecological carrying capacity by using the new GIS technology to explore the small scale will be a new perspective. This paper takes Nanchang city (including four counties and five districts) as the study area, on 2012 TM remote sensing image interpretation and extraction of land use data, and combined with land use data of 2005 and 2000, 2010 3 the use of GIS grid technique, divided into urban and rural population spatial distribution were simulated, based on this, by using the ecological footprint method, the study area was respectively in the city, county and grid for the evaluation of ecological carrying capacity evaluation unit, to explore the dynamic changes of the ecological carrying capacity in 2000-2012 years in the analysis the reason of the ecological carrying capacity change, and according to the current situation of ecological carrying capacity in study area is proposed to control the population size, strict land use change, suggestions and countermeasures are given: (1) through the interpretation of the results, Nanchang City area of land use types, farmland is the most widely distributed, the largest area, woodland, water area and construction land area is decreasing. From 2000 to 2012, cultivated land and woodland decreased, construction land increased, cultivated land and forest land converted to construction land was evident. (2) simulated distribution in population space, urban population spatial distribution presented by the circle within the circle of decreasing trend, the more close to the city center, the population more intensive, in the entire city of Nanchang (including 5) performance especially. And the spatial distribution of rural population and of land use in rural residential land and forest area are positively correlated, which correlated with the rural residents of the maximum, the correlation coefficient was 26.663, followed by arable land, the The value is 3.584, and the weakest correlation between forest land, the value of 0.403. in spatial distribution of population in the study area simulation results, simulation of population and population statistics is 24 thousand and 900, basically reached a total population of simulation is consistent with the requirements. (3) the per capita ecological footprint in 2012 in the study area is 1.295, bearing the per capita ecological force is 0.460, the ecological carrying capacity of supply and demand difference was -0.835, the ecological carrying capacity evaluation shows the ecological deficit in counties. To evaluate the ecological carrying capacity, Nanchang city (including 5) showed the ecological deficit, while Nanchang County, Xinjian County, Jinxian county and Anyi county showed in ecological sensitive. The grid in the study area for evaluation of ecological carrying capacity, ecological deficit, ecological sensitive area, ecological distribution and ecological surplus are flat area, in some degree and land use types with ecological carrying capacity, Mainly in: the ecological deficit and ecological sensitive area on the construction of land use types in the area, the ecological area corresponding to the flat farming area and unused area, ecological surplus area of forest area and corresponding waters. (4) from 2000 to 2012, the most obvious change of ecological carrying capacity is ecological the range of the deficit area, gradually extended from the small area in Nanchang in 2000, to a wide range of area ecological deficit in 2012, not only the ecological deficit of downtown smaller scope of the original "extended pie", showing the expansion of ecological deficit from Jinxian and the central city is Anyi. Showing the ecological deficit from the expansion, at the same time, the whole research region, extending the ecological deficit areas and ecological sensitive area with network spread.

【學位授予單位】：江西農(nóng)業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F301.2;X826

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