本文關(guān)鍵詞： 政府間氣候變化專門(mén)委員會(huì) RCPs情景 FLUS模型 耕地模擬 撓力河流域　出處：《農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào)》2017年10期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：選取三江平原典型流域撓力河流域?yàn)檠芯繀^(qū),以1990、2002和2014年3期Landsat影像、DEM數(shù)據(jù)和社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)統(tǒng)計(jì)資料等多源數(shù)據(jù)為基本信息源,結(jié)合3S技術(shù),運(yùn)用FLUS模型定量模擬代表性濃度路徑情景系列(RCPs)下耕地動(dòng)態(tài)變化特征。結(jié)果表明:24 a間撓力河流域的旱地面積變化幅度較小,水田面積持續(xù)增加,1990—2002年水田擴(kuò)張劇烈,2002—2014年擴(kuò)張速度趨于緩和;3個(gè)時(shí)點(diǎn)的旱地均沿東北-西南軸方向進(jìn)行分布,主軸沿順時(shí)針緩慢旋轉(zhuǎn),空間變化穩(wěn)定,分布范圍逐漸減小。水田沿東北-西南走向分布,1990—2002年其主軸逆時(shí)針旋轉(zhuǎn),后順時(shí)針旋轉(zhuǎn)至45.31°,整體分布較為離散,極化特征不明顯;通過(guò)對(duì)比不同空間分辨率及時(shí)間尺度下模擬精度,確定最優(yōu)模擬空間分辨率為200 m,最優(yōu)模擬時(shí)間點(diǎn)為2038年;MESSAGE氣候模式下,未來(lái)?yè)狭恿饔虻暮档孛娣e先減少后增加,水田繼續(xù)維持?jǐn)U張態(tài)勢(shì),2029年后面積將以2%速度逐年下降,其分布將更加聚集,主軸沿順時(shí)針旋轉(zhuǎn),重心逐漸向東北方向進(jìn)行偏移;AIM氣候模式下,氣候波動(dòng)對(duì)水田的影響程度大于旱地,旱地面積持續(xù)緩慢增加,水田面積在波動(dòng)中下降,空間分布的極化特征突出。
[Abstract]:A typical watershed of Sanjiang Plain was selected as the study area, and 3 Landsat images were taken in 1990 / 2002 and 2014 respectively. DEM data and social and economic statistics and other multi-source data as the basic information source, combined with 3s technology. The FLUS model was used to quantitatively simulate the dynamic change of cultivated land under representative concentration path scenarios (RCPs). The results showed that the variation of dryland area in the Naoli River basin was small during the period of 24 to 24 years. The paddy field area continued to increase and the paddy field expanded sharply from 1990 to 2002. In 2002-2014, the expansion rate tended to moderate. The drylands of the three time points are distributed along the northeast-southwest axis, the main axis rotates slowly clockwise, the spatial variation is stable, the distribution range decreases gradually, and the paddy field distributes along the northeast-southwest strike. From 1990 to 2002, the spindle rotated counterclockwise, and the latter rotated clockwise to 45.31 擄. The whole distribution was discrete, and the polarization characteristics were not obvious. By comparing the simulation accuracy of different spatial resolution and time scale, the optimal simulation spatial resolution is 200m, and the optimal simulation time point is 2038. Under the MESSAGE climate model, the dryland area of the Nao Lihe River basin will decrease first and then increase, and the paddy field will continue to expand. After 2029, the area will decrease at the rate of 2% year by year. Its distribution will be more concentrated, the spindle will rotate clockwise, and the center of gravity will gradually shift to the northeast direction. Under the AIM climate model, the impact of climate fluctuation on paddy field is greater than that on dry land, the dry land area increases slowly, the paddy field area decreases during the fluctuation, and the polarization characteristics of spatial distribution are prominent.
【作者單位】： 東北大學(xué)土地管理研究所;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(41671520)
【分類號(hào)】：F323.211
【正文快照】： 引言確保糧食安全是關(guān)乎國(guó)計(jì)民生的首要任務(wù),而耕地是糧食生產(chǎn)的基本物質(zhì)條件,其格局表征著生產(chǎn)要素的空間配置條件、糧食生產(chǎn)能力狀況及利用可持續(xù)性,被認(rèn)為是多要素的綜合驅(qū)動(dòng)結(jié)果[1-2]。從世界范圍來(lái)看,城市化、人口增長(zhǎng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展是影響耕地總量、人均耕地變化的重要因素[，

本文編號(hào)：1487496