本文關(guān)鍵詞： 香蕉市場(chǎng) 貿(mào)易格局 因子分析 格蘭杰因果分析 中國(guó) 世界　出處：《海南大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：香蕉是世界鮮果貿(mào)易量及消費(fèi)量最大的水果之一,被聯(lián)合國(guó)糧農(nóng)組織(FAO)定位為發(fā)展中國(guó)家繼水稻、小麥、玉米之后的第四大糧食作物。據(jù)聯(lián)合國(guó)糧農(nóng)組織(FAO)最新數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì),2013年全球香蕉收獲面積為508萬(wàn)公頃,產(chǎn)量10671.42萬(wàn)噸(2015年FAO數(shù)據(jù))；聯(lián)合國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)司統(tǒng)計(jì)(UN comtrade),出口量為1967萬(wàn)噸,進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易額達(dá)233.68億美元(2015年UN comtrade數(shù)據(jù))。中國(guó)不僅是世界第二大香蕉生產(chǎn)國(guó),也是全球香蕉主要消費(fèi)國(guó),如今香蕉產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)成為我國(guó)南亞熱帶地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)支柱性產(chǎn)業(yè),在熱區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)和農(nóng)村社會(huì)發(fā)展中發(fā)揮著重要作用。在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化和貿(mào)易自由化的背景下,世界香蕉貿(mào)易格局發(fā)生了變化,這對(duì)中國(guó)香蕉市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)了一定的影響。 中國(guó)香蕉進(jìn)口量近年持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),出口量卻越來(lái)越少,甚至微乎其微。世界香蕉貿(mào)易格局變化作為外部環(huán)境因素與中國(guó)香蕉市場(chǎng)內(nèi)部環(huán)境因素相互作用造成了這個(gè)局面。本研究著重了解世界香蕉貿(mào)易格局的變化對(duì)中國(guó)香蕉市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)的影響、中國(guó)香蕉市場(chǎng)與國(guó)際香蕉市場(chǎng)的關(guān)聯(lián)程度、進(jìn)口蕉在中國(guó)香蕉市場(chǎng)的地位和進(jìn)口蕉與國(guó)產(chǎn)蕉的市場(chǎng)關(guān)系,這對(duì)中國(guó)香蕉產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)、增強(qiáng)國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力、穩(wěn)定我國(guó)香蕉價(jià)格有較大的現(xiàn)實(shí)指導(dǎo)意義。 鑒于此,本文首先結(jié)合文獻(xiàn)資料和實(shí)地訪談梳理了世界香蕉貿(mào)易格局的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。其次,總結(jié)了世界香蕉貿(mào)易格局的主要特點(diǎn)及世界香蕉貿(mào)易格局變化對(duì)我國(guó)香蕉貿(mào)易產(chǎn)生的主要影響。第三,運(yùn)用格蘭杰因果分析模型對(duì)進(jìn)口蕉價(jià)格與國(guó)產(chǎn)蕉價(jià)格的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了研究。第四,運(yùn)用問(wèn)卷調(diào)查法分別研究了世界香蕉貿(mào)易格局變化對(duì)我國(guó)生產(chǎn)的影響(共取得36個(gè)樣本,其中香蕉進(jìn)出口企業(yè)25個(gè),香蕉種植企業(yè)11個(gè),有效樣本共36個(gè))和對(duì)我國(guó)消費(fèi)者行為的影響(共取得383個(gè)樣本,取自全國(guó)19個(gè)省市,有效樣本共316個(gè))。第五,運(yùn)用因子分析模型研究了在現(xiàn)有世界貿(mào)易格局下影響我國(guó)消費(fèi)者消費(fèi)偏好的因素。 最后,本文在前幾章的研究成果的基礎(chǔ)之上提出了中國(guó)香蕉產(chǎn)業(yè)持續(xù)發(fā)展的對(duì)策。主要觀點(diǎn)有中國(guó)香蕉產(chǎn)業(yè)應(yīng)該從本質(zhì)上改善國(guó)產(chǎn)蕉品質(zhì),增強(qiáng)中小型香蕉種植企業(yè)的管理水平,縮短物流環(huán)節(jié)以提高國(guó)際國(guó)內(nèi)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,香蕉產(chǎn)業(yè)人員和政府部門(mén)應(yīng)該制定香蕉品牌戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃,實(shí)現(xiàn)我國(guó)香蕉企業(yè)“品質(zhì)”與“品牌”的結(jié)合。
[Abstract]:Banana is one of the world's trade volume and the largest consumption of fresh fruits, by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) as developing countries after rice, wheat, corn after the fourth major grain crops. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) the latest statistics, in 2013 the global banana harvest area of 5 million 80 thousand hectares, yield 106 million 714 thousand and 200 tons (in 2015 FAO data); the United Nations Statistics Division Statistics (UN COMTRADE), the export volume of 19 million 670 thousand tons, import and export trade amounted to $23 billion 368 million (2015 UN COMTRADE data Chinese). Not only is the world's second largest producer of bananas, banana is one of the world's major consumer countries, Now banana industry has become China's south subtropical agriculture pillar industry plays an important role in the economic and social development in rural areas. In the global economic integration and trade liberalization under the background of the world has changed the banana trade pattern, the The banana market in China has brought a certain impact.
Chinese banana imports in recent years of sustained growth, exports are less and less, even very little. The interaction changes the world banana trade pattern as the external environment factors and internal environment factors China banana market caused this situation. This research focuses on understanding the impact of changes in the world trade pattern of banana banana market Chinese, correlation degree of banana market Chinese with the international banana market, the market relationship between imports of bananas in the banana market Chinese status and imports of bananas and homemade banana, the banana industry Chinese upgrade, enhance the international competitiveness of China's stable price of bananas has great practical significance.
In view of this, this paper combined with the literature and field interviews, reviews the development status and development trend of the world banana trade pattern. Secondly, summarizes the main characteristics and main influence the world banana trade pattern changes the world banana trade pattern of China banana trade. Third, using the Grainger causal analysis model of price and imports of bananas the domestic price of banana were studied. Fourth, the effects of changes in the world trade pattern of banana production in China were studied by using the method of questionnaire survey (a total of 36 samples, the banana import and export enterprises 25, banana planting enterprises 11, a total of 36 valid samples) and the influence on China's consumer behavior (a total of 383 samples from 19 provinces and cities nationwide, a total of 316 valid samples). Fifth, using the factor analysis model in the study of the existing pattern of world trade under the influence of China's consumer The factor of fee preference.
Finally, this paper puts forward the Countermeasures of sustainable development of the banana industry Chinese based on research results of previous chapters. The main points of the banana industry Chinese should essentially improve the quality of domestic banana, banana planting strengthening small and medium enterprise management level, shorten the logistics to enhance domestic and international competitiveness, the banana industry personnel and government departments should make the banana brand strategic planning, combined with the implementation of China's banana industry "quality" and "brand".

【學(xué)位授予單位】：海南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F746;F316.13;F326.13

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