本文關(guān)鍵詞： 農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展 農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi) 門限回歸 分位數(shù)回歸　出處：《吉林財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展步入“新常態(tài)”,我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模式發(fā)生轉(zhuǎn)變,投資和出口的GDP占比逐漸降低,消費(fèi)逐漸成為推動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的主力。尤其表現(xiàn)在次貸危機(jī)后,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長更加依賴消費(fèi)。然而,就2015年而言,美國、韓國、日本居民最終消費(fèi)率為0.68、0.49、0.57,而我國居民最終消費(fèi)率僅為0.38,可見,我國消費(fèi)抑制現(xiàn)象明顯。消費(fèi)抑制是我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的長期制約因素。在我國二元經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)背景下,城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)逐步飽和,深度挖掘農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)刻不容緩。金融發(fā)展對消費(fèi)具有重要影響,這一觀點(diǎn)在學(xué)術(shù)界已達(dá)成共識,但具體的影響方式莫衷一是。近年來中國農(nóng)村金融業(yè)雖然取得了顯著發(fā)展,但是距滿足農(nóng)村居民的金融需求還有較大差距,主要表現(xiàn)為嚴(yán)重的農(nóng)村金融排斥現(xiàn)象。本文旨在探究我國農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展對農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)的影響方式,并力求從農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展的角度對改善農(nóng)村消費(fèi)提供建議。本文在理論分析基礎(chǔ)上,實(shí)證分析中國農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展對農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)影響。首先,回顧國內(nèi)外學(xué)者關(guān)于農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展影響農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)影響的主要研究成果,梳理農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展理論及農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)理論的主要論點(diǎn),構(gòu)建實(shí)證研究理論基礎(chǔ)。然后,進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,從現(xiàn)狀分析開始,運(yùn)用相關(guān)統(tǒng)計(jì)分析方法進(jìn)行定量研究。采用描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)分析方法,利用相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)對農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展規(guī)模和發(fā)展效率,農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)總量、消費(fèi)傾向以及城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)差距四個(gè)方面現(xiàn)實(shí)狀況進(jìn)行分析,以了解我國農(nóng)村金融和農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)發(fā)展基本現(xiàn)狀和主要不足。根據(jù)不同分析目標(biāo)選取不同指標(biāo),通過建立門限回歸模型分析農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展對農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)的非線性影響,并運(yùn)用分位數(shù)回歸模型和多項(xiàng)式分布滯后模型分析農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展對農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)的具體影響。實(shí)證分析表明:第一,我國農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展規(guī)模已經(jīng)滿足農(nóng)村需求,但是發(fā)展效率偏低從而抑制農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi);第二,農(nóng)村存款和農(nóng)村保險(xiǎn)服務(wù)增加顯著抑制了農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)增長,農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)受過去的消費(fèi)習(xí)慣和城鎮(zhèn)居民的消費(fèi)習(xí)慣影響;第三,農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展沒有有效緩解農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)抑制的現(xiàn)象,農(nóng)村居民的邊際消費(fèi)傾向?qū)鹑诜⻊?wù)變化反應(yīng)不敏感。最后,根據(jù)實(shí)證結(jié)果從農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展角度提出促進(jìn)農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)的相關(guān)建議。
[Abstract]:Economic development has entered the "new normal", China's economic growth model has changed, the proportion of investment and exports of GDP has gradually decreased, consumption has gradually become the main force to promote economic growth, especially after the subprime mortgage crisis. Economic growth is more dependent on consumption. In 2015, however, the final consumption rate in the United States, South Korea and Japan was 0. 68 or 0. 49 per 0. 57. However, the final consumption rate of Chinese residents is only 0.38. It can be seen that the phenomenon of consumption inhibition is obvious. Consumption inhibition is the long-term constraint factor of China's economic growth. Under the background of the dual economic structure of our country. The consumption of urban residents is gradually saturated and it is urgent to dig deeply into the consumption of rural residents. Financial development has an important impact on consumption, which has reached a consensus in academic circles. In recent years, China's rural financial industry has made remarkable development, but there is still a big gap between meeting the financial needs of rural residents. The main manifestation of this phenomenon is the phenomenon of rural financial exclusion. This paper aims to explore the impact of rural financial development on the consumption of rural residents. And try to improve rural consumption from the perspective of rural financial development. On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of rural financial development on rural consumption. Review the domestic and foreign scholars on the rural financial development of rural residents consumption impact of the main research results, combing the rural financial development theory and rural consumption theory of the main arguments. Construct the theoretical basis of empirical research. Then, the empirical analysis, starting from the current situation analysis, using the relevant statistical analysis method for quantitative research. Using descriptive statistical analysis method. Using the relevant data to analyze the scale and efficiency of rural financial development, the total consumption of rural residents, consumption trends and the consumption gap between urban and rural residents. In order to understand the basic status of rural finance and rural residents consumption development and the main deficiencies. According to different analysis objectives to select different indicators. Through the establishment of threshold regression model to analyze the nonlinear impact of rural financial development on rural residents' consumption. The quantile regression model and polynomial distribution lag model are used to analyze the impact of rural financial development on rural residents' consumption. The empirical analysis shows that: first, the scale of rural financial development has met rural demand. But the development efficiency is on the low side so as to restrain the rural residents' consumption; Second, the increase of rural deposits and rural insurance services significantly inhibited the growth of rural residents' consumption, which was influenced by the past consumption habits and the consumption habits of urban residents. Third, rural financial development has not effectively alleviated the phenomenon of rural residents' consumption inhibition. The marginal consumption tendency of rural residents is not sensitive to changes in financial services. Finally. According to the empirical results from the perspective of rural financial development, the paper puts forward some suggestions to promote rural residents' consumption.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F323.8;F832.35

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