本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于地理加權(quán)回歸模型的江蘇省耕地面積與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平關(guān)系研究　出處：《南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 江蘇省 耕地面積 經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展 地理加權(quán)回歸模型

【摘要】：土地是人類賴以生存和發(fā)展的物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ),更是現(xiàn)代社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ)。耕地資源是支撐我們?nèi)祟惤?jīng)濟(jì)社會可持續(xù)發(fā)展、生態(tài)環(huán)境可持續(xù)發(fā)展的一種非常重要的土地資源。我國耕地在絕對數(shù)量與總體質(zhì)量上都難以與我國龐大的人口相匹配,為了我國經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會、生態(tài)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展,如何解決經(jīng)濟(jì)與耕地的矛盾、人地矛盾便成為了問題的關(guān)鍵�？v觀改革開放三十多年,伴隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,同期江蘇省耕地面積也持續(xù)遞減,耕地保護(hù)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的矛盾、人口增長與耕地減少的矛盾依然十分突出。所以,本文以江蘇省為研究對象,探求江蘇省耕地面積與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的關(guān)系,既有其自身的針對性,也有對我國其他發(fā)展相對較慢地區(qū)的借鑒意義。本文根據(jù)收集的江蘇省1978-2008年統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)并利用Excel、ArcGIS軟件,采用傳統(tǒng)的以長時間序列角度,對江蘇省耕地面積與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平關(guān)系進(jìn)行了現(xiàn)狀、數(shù)量、程度三個方面的分析。然后,先利用主成分分析模型,計算得出了對江蘇省耕地面積變化的三個主要的社會經(jīng)濟(jì)影響因素。再從中選出主要影響因子,利用ArcGIS軟件,采用地理加權(quán)回歸模型來分析主要影響因子對耕地面積變化的影響程度,及其時空變化規(guī)律。結(jié)果表明:一方面,從傳統(tǒng)的以長時間尺度進(jìn)行計量分析的研究方法下,我們得出江蘇省通過30年的改革開放,在經(jīng)濟(jì)飛速發(fā)展的同時,耕地面積也在迅速減少,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的地區(qū)差異很大,各地級市耕地保護(hù)的壓力也有很大區(qū)別。然而,此種研究法回避了耕地面積與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的空間差異性,無法解釋兩者內(nèi)部變化的聯(lián)系。通過對江蘇省耕地面積與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的現(xiàn)狀、數(shù)量、程度分析,我們僅能得出這樣的結(jié)論:耕地面積與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平之間的關(guān)系是矛盾對立的。我們將陷入若發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)勢必減少耕地,若保護(hù)耕地勢必降低經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的悖論中。另一方面,通過主成分分析方法和地理加權(quán)模型發(fā)現(xiàn),地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)比重、年末總?cè)丝谑怯绊懜魇懈孛娣e變化的主要因素。在江蘇省經(jīng)濟(jì)的繼續(xù)發(fā)展中,我們可以預(yù)見保護(hù)耕地與發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)之間的矛盾將會有所緩和,而人口增長與耕地減少的矛盾則將一直存在。另外,在產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整方面,樂觀的可以認(rèn)為產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化將有助于江蘇經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展,改善江蘇經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模式,使其成為資源節(jié)約型、環(huán)境友好型,又好又快的發(fā)展。隨著,耕地保護(hù)意識的強(qiáng)化,保護(hù)政策的執(zhí)行,我們在產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整中兼顧耕地保護(hù),在現(xiàn)有基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)行淘汰、更新、升級,將徹底改變發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)依賴于侵占土地的局面。
[Abstract]:Land is the material basis of human survival and development, but also the basis of modern social and economic development. Cultivated land resources is to support our human economic and social sustainable development. Ecological environment sustainable development of a very important land resources, China's arable land in absolute quantity and overall quality are difficult to match the huge population of our country, for the sake of our economy, society. The sustainable development of ecology, how to solve the contradiction between economy and cultivated land, the contradiction between man and land has become the key problem. Throughout the reform and opening up for more than 30 years, with the rapid development of the economy. At the same time, the cultivated land area in Jiangsu Province is decreasing, the contradiction between cultivated land protection and economic development, population growth and cultivated land decrease is still very prominent. Therefore, this paper takes Jiangsu Province as the research object. To explore the relationship between cultivated land area and the level of economic development in Jiangsu Province has its own pertinence. It also has reference significance to other slow developing areas in China. This paper uses the software of Excel ArcGIS according to the statistical data collected from 1978 to 2008 in Jiangsu Province. In this paper, the relationship between cultivated land area and economic development level in Jiangsu Province is analyzed in terms of traditional long time series. Then, the principal component analysis model is used to analyze the relationship between cultivated land area and economic development level in Jiangsu Province in three aspects: quantity and degree. Three main social and economic factors of cultivated land area change in Jiangsu Province were calculated. Then the main influencing factors were selected and ArcGIS software was used. The influence degree of main influencing factors on the change of cultivated land area and the regularity of temporal and spatial change are analyzed by using geographical weighted regression model. The results show that: 1). From the traditional econometric analysis of a long time scale, we draw a conclusion that Jiangsu Province through 30 years of reform and opening up, in the rapid development of the economy, the area of cultivated land is also rapidly reduced. The regional difference of economic development level and the pressure of cultivated land protection in each prefectural city are also very different. However, this research method avoids the spatial difference between cultivated land area and economic development level. Through the analysis of the current situation, quantity and degree of cultivated land area and economic development level in Jiangsu Province. We can only draw the conclusion that the relationship between cultivated land area and the level of economic development is contradictory. Protection of cultivated land is bound to reduce the level of economic development in the paradox. On the other hand, through the principal component analysis method and geographical weighted model found that the regional GDP, the proportion of tertiary industry. The total population at the end of the year is the main factor affecting the change of cultivated land area in various cities. In the continuous economic development of Jiangsu Province, we can foresee that the contradiction between the protection of cultivated land and the development of the economy will be eased. In addition, in the aspect of industrial structure adjustment, it is optimistic that the optimization of industrial structure will contribute to the sustainable development of Jiangsu economy. To improve Jiangsu's economic growth model and make it a resource-saving, environment-friendly, good and rapid development. With the strengthening of cultivated land protection awareness, protection policy implementation. We should pay attention to the protection of cultivated land in the adjustment of industrial structure, and eliminate, renew and upgrade on the existing basis, which will completely change the situation that the development of economy depends on the occupation of land.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F323.211;F127

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