本文關鍵詞：雨澇災害對農戶生產要素投入行為的影響——基于湖北農村固定觀察點數(shù)據(jù)的分析　出處：《資源科學》2017年09期 　論文類型：期刊論文

  更多相關文章： 雨澇災害 要素投入 水稻 分位數(shù)回歸 湖北

【摘要】：本文基于2003-2011年湖北省農村固定觀察點數(shù)據(jù)及氣象數(shù)據(jù),運用"Z指數(shù)"法核算各氣象站點的雨澇發(fā)生等級,并對其特征進行分析。依據(jù)"Z指數(shù)"計算結果將年份劃分為正常年份與雨澇災害年份,運用計量經(jīng)濟學方法定量分析雨澇災害對水稻種植戶要素投入行為的影響。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),2003-2011年間湖北偏澇少于大澇,極澇并未出現(xiàn),大澇、偏澇發(fā)生區(qū)域較為集中。此外,稻農生產要素投入在正常年和雨澇災害年間存在顯著差異。雨澇災害的發(fā)生對中間投入、勞動力投入具有顯著的正向影響,且對后者影響程度最大。另外,分位數(shù)回歸表明,隨著分位數(shù)的提高,雨澇災害對中間投入、勞動力投入的影響程度逐漸提高。因此,有必要加強對湖北雨澇災害的預警及預報,為農戶尤其是高投入水平的種植大戶提供必要的公共服務及知識技術支持。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of fixed observation points and meteorological data from 2003 to 2011 in Hubei Province, the "Z index" method is used to calculate the grade of rain and waterlogging in various meteorological stations. According to the calculation result of "Z index", the year is divided into normal year and year of rain and waterlogging disaster. Quantitative analysis of the effects of rain and waterlogging on the input behavior of rice growers by econometrics method. The results show that the partial waterlogging in Hubei Province was less than the severe waterlogging from 2003 to 2011, the extreme waterlogging did not occur and the heavy waterlogging occurred. In addition, there were significant differences between the normal year and the rainy year. The occurrence of the rain and waterlogging disaster had a significant positive effect on the intermediate input and labor input. In addition, the quantile regression showed that with the increase of quantiles, the effect of rain and waterlogging on the intermediate input and labor input increased gradually. It is necessary to strengthen the early warning and forecast of rain and waterlogging disaster in Hubei, and provide the necessary public service and knowledge and technical support for the farmers, especially the large farmers with high investment level.
【作者單位】： 華中農業(yè)大學經(jīng)濟管理學院;湖北農村發(fā)展研究中心;武漢輕工大學經(jīng)濟與管理學院;西南大學經(jīng)濟管理學院;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金國際合作項目(71461010701);國家自然科學基金面上項目(71473100) 教育部人文社會科學研究青年基金項目(12YJC790036)
【分類號】：F327;S422
【正文快照】： 1引言IPCC第五次評估報告指出,氣候變暖具有持續(xù)性,由其引發(fā)的極端天氣事件出現(xiàn)的概率也有所增加。Bernhard等[1]、Singh[2]、Keer[3]等分別針對歐洲、印度和非洲等地區(qū)旱澇災害的研究發(fā)現(xiàn),地球環(huán)境受氣候暖干化的影響,旱澇災害頻發(fā)。國內學者研究發(fā)現(xiàn),自1950年以來,中國的洪，

本文編號：1436016