本文關(guān)鍵詞：資源與環(huán)境雙重約束下的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)用水效率研究　出處：《合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)用水效率 農(nóng)業(yè)水污染 技術(shù)落差比 農(nóng)業(yè)用水效率預(yù)測

【摘要】：水資源短缺和農(nóng)業(yè)水污染嚴(yán)重早已是制約我國農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的重要因素,而由于農(nóng)業(yè)用水一直以來都未有一個完善的價格和管理機制,導(dǎo)致農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)過程中用水效率低下。關(guān)注農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)用水效率,關(guān)系著國家農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展、糧食安全等國計民生問題,因此本文致力于研究農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)用水效率問題符合我國農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,更與“十三五”規(guī)劃提出的農(nóng)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展理念相一致。故本文基于2000-2014省際面板數(shù)據(jù),利用SBM-Undesirable和Meta-frontier模型研究了農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)用水效率,并對農(nóng)業(yè)中最重要的糧食作物也進行了相應(yīng)分析,在此基礎(chǔ)上運用隨機效應(yīng)的Tobit模型對農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)用水效率的影響因素進行了分析。初步取得以下進展:(1)對SBM-Undesirable模型增加約束項,即對投入變量農(nóng)業(yè)用水增加約束,分析發(fā)現(xiàn)無論是農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)用水還是糧食生產(chǎn)用水,有約束條件下的用水效率均高于無約束下的用水效率,然而無約束和有約束下的時間趨勢表現(xiàn)基本一致。(2)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)用水效率在東、中、西部地區(qū)表現(xiàn)分別為東部最高、中部次之、西部最低,和地區(qū)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展程度吻合;而糧食生產(chǎn)用水效率卻不與農(nóng)業(yè)相一致,表現(xiàn)為中部最高、西部次之、東部最低。(3)不同前沿下的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)用水效率有較大差異,這可從分析東、中、西部地區(qū)技術(shù)落差比看出。農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)用水效率技術(shù)落差比東部地區(qū)表現(xiàn)最好,但有下降趨勢,西部地區(qū)表現(xiàn)較平穩(wěn)處于全國平均水平左右,中部地區(qū)波動較大,后期比值較高,超過東、西部;糧食生產(chǎn)用水效率技術(shù)落差比則是中部較好,東、西部波動較大,低于中部。(4)研究農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)用水效率的影響因素發(fā)現(xiàn),農(nóng)業(yè)機械化程度、技術(shù)因素、人均農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)值以及農(nóng)民人均純收入均對農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)用水效率有不同程度的顯著影響,而值得關(guān)注的是單位面積灌溉費、農(nóng)村居民人均純收入和農(nóng)業(yè)機械化程度在部分地區(qū)影響結(jié)果與預(yù)期不符,說明節(jié)水灌溉設(shè)備并沒有得到廣泛使用,灌溉費及農(nóng)業(yè)水價制定不合理,農(nóng)民的節(jié)水意識普遍性不高。(5)最后就未來農(nóng)業(yè)用水量及用水效率進行預(yù)測。本文主要運用逆DEA預(yù)測2020年農(nóng)業(yè)用水量,進一步計算2020年農(nóng)業(yè)用水效率。另外,本文還就常見的預(yù)測效率方法,即設(shè)定情形法,給出了不同情況下的預(yù)測結(jié)果,并將逆DEA方法與之比較。
[Abstract]:The shortage of water resources and the serious water pollution in agriculture have long been the important factors restricting the development of agricultural economy in China, but there has been no perfect price and management mechanism for agricultural water use. In the process of agricultural production, water use efficiency is low. Paying attention to the efficiency of agricultural production water use is related to the national agricultural development, food security and other issues of the national economy and people's livelihood. Therefore, this paper is devoted to the study of water efficiency in agricultural production in line with the current situation of agricultural development in China. It is also consistent with the concept of agricultural sustainable development put forward in the 13th Five-Year Plan. Therefore, this paper is based on the provincial panel data of 2000-2014. The efficiency of water use in agricultural production was studied by using SBM-Undesirable and Meta-frontier models, and the most important food crops in agriculture were also analyzed. On the basis of this, the factors influencing water use efficiency in agricultural production were analyzed by using the Tobit model of stochastic effect. Add constraints to the SBM-Undesirable model. It is found that the efficiency of water use under the constraint conditions is higher than that under the unconstrained condition, both in agricultural production and in grain production. However, the trend of unconstrained and constrained time trend is basically the same. 2) the efficiency of agricultural production water use is the highest in the east, the highest in the east, the second in the middle and the lowest in the west. And the degree of regional economic development is consistent; However, the efficiency of water use for grain production is not consistent with that of agriculture, which is the highest in the middle, the second in the west and the lowest in the east. There are great differences in the efficiency of water use for agricultural production under different frontiers, which can be analyzed from the east and the middle. The technical drop ratio of the western region shows that the technical drop ratio of agricultural production water use efficiency is the best in the eastern region, but there is a downward trend. The performance of the western region is relatively stable at the national average level, and the central region fluctuates greatly. The ratio of late stage is higher than that of east and west; The technical drop ratio of water use efficiency in grain production is better in the middle, but fluctuating in the east and west, which is lower than that in the middle.) the factors influencing the efficiency of water use in agricultural production are found out, the degree of agricultural mechanization and the technical factors. The per capita agricultural output value and the per capita net income of farmers have significant effects on the efficiency of agricultural production water use, but the irrigation fee per unit area is worthy of attention. The per capita net income of rural residents and the degree of agricultural mechanization in some areas do not agree with the expected results, indicating that water-saving irrigation equipment has not been widely used, irrigation fees and agricultural water prices are not reasonable. Farmers' awareness of water saving is not high. (5) finally, the future agricultural water consumption and water use efficiency are forecasted. This paper mainly uses inverse DEA to forecast agricultural water consumption in 2020. In 2020, the efficiency of agricultural water use is further calculated. In addition, this paper gives the prediction results under different conditions and compares the inverse DEA method with the common prediction efficiency method, I. e., the setting case method.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F323.213

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