本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國雞蛋價格波動研究　出處：《南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 雞蛋價格 波動 影響因素 供給反應(yīng) 規(guī)模

【摘要】：近年來,我國雞蛋產(chǎn)業(yè)取得了較快的發(fā)展,不僅雞蛋總產(chǎn)量保持常年穩(wěn)步增長,而且養(yǎng)殖結(jié)構(gòu),飼養(yǎng)方式以及蛋品質(zhì)量等諸多方面都取得了較大的提高。但生產(chǎn)力水平的制約使得我國雞蛋產(chǎn)業(yè)還具有以下明顯特點:中小養(yǎng)殖規(guī)模仍然是主要的供給形式,衛(wèi)生防疫機(jī)制的不完善使得重大疫情時有發(fā)生,雞蛋產(chǎn)銷地之間價格傳導(dǎo)不暢、蛋品加工產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展滯后等等。在這一背景下,我國雞蛋價格波動具有明顯的周期性,這種波動每隔2-3年就會出現(xiàn)一次,同時疫情發(fā)生的年份常常伴隨著劇烈的波動。另外在短期波動特征上,還具有明顯的集聚性、持續(xù)性和非對稱性,這對雞蛋及其相關(guān)市場的穩(wěn)定運(yùn)行帶來了極大的不利影響。雞蛋價格波動從根本上仍然是供求不平衡的結(jié)果,但從波動機(jī)理看,則是內(nèi)生結(jié)構(gòu)性因素和短期外生沖擊因素共同作用的結(jié)果。特別是以雛雞和飼料為主的生產(chǎn)成本的變動在雞蛋價格波動中起著決定性作用,而以疫情為代表的突發(fā)事件的沖擊是引起雞蛋價格短期波動的主要原因。另外,以豬肉為代表的替代品效應(yīng)以及收入水平提高帶來的正向效應(yīng)也不容忽視。更進(jìn)一步,雞蛋價格波動主要源于供給端的不穩(wěn)定,而供給的不穩(wěn)定則和養(yǎng)殖戶的供給反應(yīng)行為有關(guān)。一方面,基于全樣本的供給反應(yīng)研究表明我國雞蛋供給的短期和長期價格彈性均缺乏彈性,養(yǎng)殖戶對雞蛋價格的變化反應(yīng)較為遲鈍。另一方面,基于規(guī)模分組的供給反應(yīng)研究表明,規(guī)�；B(yǎng)殖的短期和長期供給彈性均遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于非規(guī)模化養(yǎng)殖,同時規(guī)�；B(yǎng)殖下投入成本對當(dāng)期產(chǎn)量的促進(jìn)作用也要遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于非規(guī)模化養(yǎng)殖。(蔡少杰,周應(yīng)恒,2014)基于上述分析,本文提出了建立雞蛋相關(guān)市場價格定期監(jiān)測發(fā)布機(jī)制、建立健全衛(wèi)生防疫體系以及建立政府補(bǔ)償金制度、加快推進(jìn)蛋雞適度規(guī)模標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化養(yǎng)殖等政策建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's egg industry has made rapid development, not only the total output of eggs has maintained a steady growth all year round, but also the structure of aquaculture. However, the restriction of productivity level makes the egg industry of our country also have the following obvious characteristics: the medium and small scale of breeding is still the main supply form. The imperfect health and epidemic prevention mechanism makes the major epidemic occur frequently, the price transmission between the production and sale of eggs is not smooth, the development of egg processing industry lags behind, and so on. The fluctuation of egg price in China has obvious periodicity, which will occur every 2-3 years, and the epidemic year is often accompanied by violent fluctuation. In addition, the characteristics of short-term fluctuation. There is also obvious agglomeration, persistence and asymmetry, which has a great negative impact on the stable operation of eggs and their related markets. The price fluctuation of eggs is still the result of the imbalance of supply and demand. However, the fluctuation mechanism is the result of both endogenous structural factors and short-term exogenous shock factors, especially the change of production cost, which is mainly composed of chicken and feed, plays a decisive role in the fluctuation of egg price. The impact of the sudden events represented by the epidemic situation is the main reason for the short-term fluctuation of egg price. The substitution effect represented by pork and the positive effect brought by higher income level can not be ignored. Furthermore, the fluctuation of egg price is mainly due to the instability on the supply side. The instability of supply is related to the supply response behavior of farmers. On the one hand, the supply response research based on the whole sample shows that the short- and long-term price elasticity of egg supply in China is inelastic. On the other hand, the supply response based on scale grouping shows that the short-term and long-term supply elasticity of large-scale farming is much higher than that of non-large-scale farming. At the same time, the effect of input cost under large-scale aquaculture on current production is much higher than that of non-large-scale aquaculture. (Cai Shaojie, Zhou Yingheng 2014) based on the above analysis. This paper puts forward some policy suggestions, such as establishing regular monitoring and issuing mechanism of egg market price, establishing and perfecting health and epidemic prevention system, establishing government compensation system, and speeding up the standardization of laying hens' moderate scale.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F323.7

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