【摘要】：本文結(jié)合約翰迪爾公司的3E產(chǎn)品升級項(xiàng)目，探討現(xiàn)金流折現(xiàn)法在決策中的應(yīng)用。 約翰迪爾是世界最大的農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械設(shè)備制造商，目前在中國擁有包括3個(gè)拖拉機(jī)生產(chǎn)廠。3E系列拖拉機(jī)是約翰迪爾天津工廠的主要產(chǎn)品之一。在我國準(zhǔn)備推行非道路車輛發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)國三排放的背景下，迪爾公司確定了3E產(chǎn)品國三升級的項(xiàng)目。在項(xiàng)目收益分析之初，發(fā)現(xiàn)項(xiàng)目預(yù)估的收益太低，而且凈現(xiàn)值為負(fù)。隨后通過分析和調(diào)整產(chǎn)品成本，構(gòu)建價(jià)格和銷售量的調(diào)整模型，以及分析和優(yōu)化投資方案，最終使得項(xiàng)目的收益率滿足公司要求，凈現(xiàn)值徹底改觀。 第一章介紹了我國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械行業(yè)的現(xiàn)狀、迪爾公司的背景信息，以及論文研究的參考價(jià)值等。 第二章闡述了現(xiàn)金流折現(xiàn)分析方法的定義和原理，以及在我國企業(yè)應(yīng)用中的常見問題。 第三章詳細(xì)描述了3E項(xiàng)目的背景信息，第一次DCF計(jì)算的結(jié)果。然后針對產(chǎn)品規(guī)劃，設(shè)計(jì)方案的對比，，成本降低的目標(biāo)等作分析，以實(shí)現(xiàn)優(yōu)化成本的目的。構(gòu)建了銷售量/價(jià)格和收益調(diào)整的模型，優(yōu)化了產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格和銷售結(jié)構(gòu)。通過方案對比，確定了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較低的項(xiàng)目投資方案。最后用公司的DCF系統(tǒng)重新計(jì)算內(nèi)部收益率和凈現(xiàn)值，最終滿足公司要求。 第四章總結(jié)項(xiàng)目分析過程中的主要工具和思路，同時(shí)匯總了項(xiàng)目中所學(xué)習(xí)到的經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)。
[Abstract]:This paper discusses the application of cash flow discount method in decision-making based on John Deer's 3e product upgrade project. John Deere is the world's largest manufacturer of agricultural machinery and equipment, and currently has three tractor factories in China. The 3e series tractors are one of the main products of John Deere's Tianjin factory. Under the background that our country is ready to carry out the three emissions of non-road vehicle engine country, Deer Company has determined the project of 3e product country three upgrades. At the beginning of the project income analysis, it was found that the estimated project income was too low, and the net present value (NPV) was negative. Then, through the analysis and adjustment of product cost, the construction of price and sales adjustment model, as well as the analysis and optimization of investment scheme, finally make the return of the project to meet the requirements of the company, the net present value completely improved. The first chapter introduces the present situation of agricultural machinery industry in China, the background information of Deer Company, and the reference value of this paper. In the second chapter, the definition and principle of discounted cash flow analysis method are described, and the common problems in the application of cash flow discount analysis method in Chinese enterprises are also discussed. In chapter 3, the background information of 3e project and the results of the first DCF calculation are described in detail. Then the product planning, the comparison of the design scheme, the goal of cost reduction are analyzed in order to achieve the purpose of optimizing the cost. The model of volume / price and income adjustment is constructed, and the price and sales structure of the product are optimized. Through the scheme comparison, the project investment scheme with low risk is determined. Finally, the internal rate of return (IRR) and net present value (NPV) are recalculated with the company's DCF system. The fourth chapter summarizes the main tools and ideas in the process of project analysis, and summarizes the lessons learned in the project.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F416.4;F406.7

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