【摘要】：自國(guó)內(nèi)的證券市場(chǎng)開(kāi)始到現(xiàn)在,金融詐騙案時(shí)有發(fā)生,這嚴(yán)重影響了投資者對(duì)投資的信心和投資激情,并且也嚴(yán)重干擾著資本市場(chǎng)的正常運(yùn)行。最近,股市持續(xù)低迷,證監(jiān)會(huì)不斷的提高上市公司融資的門(mén)檻,又加上很多的中小企業(yè)板剛剛創(chuàng)建。上市企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)欺詐將不會(huì)減少反而會(huì)隨之漸漸增多。怎樣找尋一個(gè)簡(jiǎn)單通用的方法來(lái)識(shí)別上市企業(yè)是否發(fā)生財(cái)務(wù)欺詐儼然已經(jīng)成為大部分的投資者、證券監(jiān)督部門(mén)、會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所和其他相關(guān)部門(mén)的研究熱點(diǎn)。 本文通過(guò)對(duì)上市公司財(cái)務(wù)各項(xiàng)財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行了規(guī)范性的研究,并最終總結(jié)了國(guó)內(nèi)外研究的一些熱點(diǎn)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行了分析,從中選出了幾個(gè)具有明顯特征的指標(biāo)作為本文的研究對(duì)象,建立了一個(gè)適合我國(guó)財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告的金融欺詐決策模型,以此來(lái)判斷上市公司是否有欺詐行文存在。 國(guó)外的上市公司由于存在的時(shí)間比較長(zhǎng),發(fā)展歷程比較久遠(yuǎn),因此其相應(yīng)的退市機(jī)制也比較可靠,相關(guān)的研究也較深層次,其研究的方面主要是對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)欺詐預(yù)警模型的研究,并獲得了一定的研究成就。相比較國(guó)內(nèi)的相關(guān)研究比較晚,主要還偏重于對(duì)國(guó)外研究成就的分析和描述階段,并且通過(guò)數(shù)學(xué)模型建立了一些財(cái)務(wù)欺詐識(shí)別模型,在實(shí)證性研究方面也比較少。 本文主要分析了中西方研究成果和方法后,結(jié)合了我國(guó)上市公司的實(shí)際情況,大膽嘗試創(chuàng)建了一種基于模糊決策的上市公司財(cái)務(wù)欺詐識(shí)別模型。研究的對(duì)象主要集中了一些經(jīng)被證實(shí)為財(cái)務(wù)欺詐的上市公司以及一些非欺詐上市公司,通過(guò)實(shí)證研究證明了此方法的實(shí)用性和可靠性。 筆者首先根據(jù)我國(guó)上市公司的財(cái)務(wù)欺詐動(dòng)機(jī)進(jìn)行了分析,通過(guò)分析得到哪些存在欺詐的上市公司往往是財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)異常和財(cái)務(wù)狀況不佳的一些公司。并從中找到了財(cái)務(wù)欺詐引起異常的財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)。 本文研究的對(duì)象主要是從XBRL中已經(jīng)被揭露存在財(cái)務(wù)欺詐的公司和未進(jìn)行欺詐的正常上市公司進(jìn)行研究,將選出的財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)對(duì)這些上市公司進(jìn)行分析研究。 最后通過(guò)對(duì)以上指標(biāo)進(jìn)行模糊權(quán)重加權(quán),得到了最終的模糊決策模型來(lái)識(shí)別上市公司的財(cái)務(wù)欺詐。 本文通過(guò)研究得到了非財(cái)務(wù)欺詐的上市公司和已經(jīng)有財(cái)務(wù)欺詐的上市公司之間有明顯的指標(biāo)差異。因此建立這個(gè)識(shí)別模型可以有效判斷上市公司是否有欺詐行為,但是光靠此模型,來(lái)判斷公司是否存在欺詐行為并不能完全可靠,因?yàn)檫�存在一些其他的因素干擾,因此這個(gè)模型僅能作為判斷該公司是否有欺詐行為存在,只能起到一個(gè)警示的作用,要想得到真正的結(jié)果需要結(jié)合多方面的信息,收集更多的資料以得到更加精確的結(jié)果。
[Abstract]:Since the beginning of the domestic securities market, financial fraud cases have occurred from time to time, which has seriously affected investors' confidence in investment and investment passion, and seriously interfered with the normal operation of the capital market. Recently, the stock market continued to downturn, the Securities Regulatory Commission continued to raise the threshold of financing listed companies, plus a lot of small and medium-sized enterprises have just been created. Financial fraud of listed enterprises will not be reduced, but will gradually increase. How to find a simple and general method to identify financial fraud in listed enterprises has become a hot research topic for most investors, securities supervision departments, accounting firms and other relevant departments. This paper makes a normative research on the financial indexes of listed companies, and finally summarizes some hot research indicators at home and abroad, from which several indicators with obvious characteristics are selected as the research object of this paper. A decision model of financial fraud is established to judge the existence of fraud in listed companies. Because the foreign listed companies exist for a long time and have a long history of development, the corresponding delisting mechanism is also relatively reliable, and the related research is also deeper. The main research aspect is the study of the financial fraud warning model. And has obtained the certain research achievement. Compared with the domestic related research, the main emphasis on the analysis and description of foreign research achievements, and through the mathematical model to establish some financial fraud identification model, but also less empirical research. This paper mainly analyzes the research results and methods of China and the West, combines the actual situation of listed companies in China, and attempts to establish a financial fraud identification model of listed companies based on fuzzy decision making. The research focuses on some listed companies which have been proved to be financial fraud and some non-fraudulent listed companies. The practicability and reliability of this method are proved by empirical research. Firstly, according to the motivation of financial fraud of listed companies in China, the author finds out which listed companies are usually some companies with abnormal financial indicators and poor financial situation. And found out the financial fraud caused by abnormal financial indicators. The object of this paper is to study the listed companies which have been exposed to the existence of financial fraud from the XBRL and the normal listed companies without fraud. The selected financial indicators will be selected to analyze and study these listed companies. Finally, the final fuzzy decision model is obtained to identify the financial fraud of listed companies by weighted fuzzy weights. In this paper, we find that there are significant differences between listed companies with non-financial fraud and listed companies with financial fraud. Therefore, the establishment of this identification model can effectively judge whether a listed company is engaged in fraud, but it is not entirely reliable to judge whether there is fraud in a company by this model alone, because there are some other factors interfering with it. Therefore, this model can only serve as a warning to judge the existence of fraud in the company. In order to get real results, it is necessary to combine various information and collect more information to get more accurate results.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F232

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