【摘要】：鋼鐵業(yè)是關系我國國計民生的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)，在國民經(jīng)濟中占有重要地位。作為一個原材料的生產(chǎn)和加工環(huán)節(jié)，鋼鐵業(yè)處于工業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的中間位置，它的發(fā)展與國家的基礎建設以及工業(yè)發(fā)展的水平密切關聯(lián)。然而也是由于這些相關行業(yè)及國內外環(huán)境政策的變化，，如產(chǎn)能過剩、礦石壟斷、資金緊張、需求不足、環(huán)境保護等方面的壓力，使我國鋼鐵企業(yè)的財務風險加劇，生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營面臨異常嚴峻的處境。在這一背景下，我國上市鋼鐵公司財務風險預警引入EVA具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。EVA評價體系涵蓋了績效評估、預算管理、經(jīng)營管理、激勵制度等多方面的價值管理理論，尤其是股權資本成本的引入，讓經(jīng)營者更接近于股東的環(huán)境，引導管理者甚至企業(yè)的一般員工開始像企業(yè)的股東一樣思考企業(yè)的生存與發(fā)展。因此本文將EVA引入上市鋼鐵公司財務風險預警中，以增強預警模型的準確性，促進鋼鐵企業(yè)的健康發(fā)展。 本文選取2012年符合條件的30家上市鋼鐵公司為樣本，從償債能力、營運能力、現(xiàn)金流量、發(fā)展能力四大方面選取14個傳統(tǒng)財務指標，此外用EVA對傳統(tǒng)盈利能力進行修正，選取4個修正的盈利能力指標，共同構成上市鋼鐵公司財務風險預警指標體系，利用因子分析法對所選財務指標進行篩選，提取6個公共因子；其次運用聚類分析法對樣本公司進行分類，將30家樣本鋼鐵公司分為安全型和風險型兩類；再次利用Logistic回歸分析法對提取的公共因子建立模型，最終進入模型的公共因子是EVA因子和成長因子，通過驗證可知EVA因子能夠更好地提高模型的預測準確性；最后利用樣本公司2011年和2010年的數(shù)據(jù)對模型進行檢驗，并對上市鋼鐵公司財務風險防控提出建設性意見。
[Abstract]:Steel industry is a pillar industry related to the national economy and people's livelihood, and plays an important role in the national economy. As a raw material production and processing link, the steel industry is in the middle of the industrial chain. Its development is closely related to the national infrastructure and the level of industrial development. However, it is also due to the changes in environmental policies in these related industries and at home and abroad, such as overcapacity, ore monopoly, tight capital, insufficient demand, environmental protection, and so on, which aggravate the financial risks of Chinese iron and steel enterprises. Production and operation are faced with an exceptionally severe situation. Under this background, the introduction of EVA into the financial risk early warning of listed iron and steel companies in China has important practical significance. The EVA evaluation system covers the value management theory of performance evaluation, budget management, incentive system and so on. Especially the introduction of the cost of equity capital makes managers more close to the environment of shareholders and leads managers and even the general staff of enterprises to start thinking about the existence and development of enterprises just like shareholders of enterprises. In order to enhance the accuracy of the warning model and promote the healthy development of iron and steel enterprises, this paper introduces EVA into the financial risk early warning of listed iron and steel companies. This paper selects 30 listed steel companies that meet the requirements in 2012 as samples, selects 14 traditional financial indicators from four aspects of solvency, operating capacity, cash flow and development ability, and modifies traditional profitability with EVA. Four revised profitability indexes are selected to constitute the financial risk warning index system of listed iron and steel companies. The selected financial indicators are screened by factor analysis and 6 public factors are extracted. Secondly, the sample companies are classified by cluster analysis, and 30 sample steel companies are classified into two categories: safety type and risk type. Then, the model of public factors extracted is established by Logistic regression analysis. The common factors that eventually enter the model are EVA factor and growth factor. It is known that EVA factor can better improve the prediction accuracy of the model. Finally, the model is tested using the data of sample companies in 2011 and 2010. And the listed steel company financial risk prevention and control put forward constructive suggestions.
【學位授予單位】：遼寧科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.31;F406.7

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