【摘要】：對企業(yè)施行財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警的意義不言而喻。本課題在研究國內(nèi)外財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警的基礎(chǔ)上,對企業(yè)財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警的基礎(chǔ)理論進(jìn)行了闡述,并界定了相關(guān)概念。在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文以J公司平臺項目作為研究對象,在對其2003年以來的財務(wù)報表分析研究的基礎(chǔ)上,通過劃分償債能力、盈利能力、發(fā)展能力、運營能力、現(xiàn)金流量五個方面對報表數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了歸納整理。在界定了風(fēng)險預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的原則目標(biāo)后,明確了J公司平臺項目財務(wù)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的功能,對財務(wù)預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系和模型進(jìn)行了構(gòu)建,并通過實證分析,研究了模型的可行性。 在本文的研究中,對以下幾個方面進(jìn)行了較為深入的研究和創(chuàng)新： (1)運用相關(guān)性分析,對J公司的財務(wù)信息常用指標(biāo)進(jìn)行刪選,減少各指標(biāo)之間的相關(guān)關(guān)系和重疊區(qū)域,使構(gòu)建的指標(biāo)體系符合了公司的財務(wù)實際情況,避免了因財務(wù)指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)冗余而造成信息失真。 (2)引入現(xiàn)金流量指標(biāo)。從現(xiàn)金角度彌補(bǔ)了企業(yè)常用的財務(wù)預(yù)警指標(biāo)的不足,益于評價企業(yè)的收益質(zhì)量和企業(yè)的流動性,使財務(wù)預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系更加完善。 (3)采用了定性與定量分析相結(jié)合的方法。在定量分析模型的基礎(chǔ)上,運用定性指標(biāo),對模型進(jìn)行修正,進(jìn)一步補(bǔ)充和完善了財務(wù)預(yù)警系統(tǒng),彌補(bǔ)了傳統(tǒng)預(yù)警模型的不足。 (4)對功效系數(shù)法進(jìn)行了改進(jìn)。在界定指標(biāo)臨界值的基礎(chǔ)上,設(shè)計計算了指標(biāo)的單項功效系數(shù),運用模糊層次分析法確定了指標(biāo)的權(quán)數(shù),計算得出綜合功效系數(shù)。 本文所設(shè)計的預(yù)警系統(tǒng)因指標(biāo)選取源自一般的財務(wù)報表,具有較強(qiáng)的可操作性,可為其他非上市公司財務(wù)預(yù)警的構(gòu)建提供參考。
[Abstract]:The significance of financial risk early warning for enterprises is self-evident. On the basis of studying financial risk early warning at home and abroad, this paper expounds the basic theory of financial risk early warning for enterprises, and defines the relevant concepts. On this basis, this paper takes J company platform project as the research object, and divides its financial statements since 2003. On the basis of analysis and research, the paper summarizes the data of financial statements by dividing the repayment ability, profitability, development ability, operation ability and cash flow. After defining the principles and objectives of the risk early warning system, it defines the function of the financial early warning system of J company platform project, and carries out the financial early warning index system and model. Finally, the feasibility of the model is studied through empirical analysis.
In the research of this paper, the following aspects have been deeply studied and innovating:
(1) By using the correlation analysis, the common financial information indicators of J company are deleted to reduce the correlation and overlap area between the indicators, so that the index system conforms to the actual financial situation of the company and avoids the information distortion caused by the redundancy of financial indicators.
(2) Introducing cash flow indicators, which make up for the deficiency of financial early warning indicators commonly used by enterprises from the cash point of view, is beneficial to evaluate the quality of earnings and liquidity of enterprises, and makes the financial early warning indicators system more perfect.
(3) The method of combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis is adopted. On the basis of quantitative analysis model, qualitative index is used to modify the model, which further complements and improves the financial early warning system and makes up for the shortcomings of the traditional early warning model.
(4) The efficiency coefficient method is improved. On the basis of defining the critical value of the index, the single efficiency coefficient of the index is designed and calculated. The weight of the index is determined by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the comprehensive efficiency coefficient is calculated.
The early-warning system designed in this paper has strong maneuverability because the indexes are selected from the general financial statements, which can provide a reference for other non-listed companies to build financial early-warning.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F426.63;F406.7

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