【摘要】：對企業(yè)施行財務風險預警的意義不言而喻。本課題在研究國內(nèi)外財務風險預警的基礎上,對企業(yè)財務風險預警的基礎理論進行了闡述,并界定了相關概念。在此基礎上,本文以J公司平臺項目作為研究對象,在對其2003年以來的財務報表分析研究的基礎上,通過劃分償債能力、盈利能力、發(fā)展能力、運營能力、現(xiàn)金流量五個方面對報表數(shù)據(jù)進行了歸納整理。在界定了風險預警系統(tǒng)的原則目標后,明確了J公司平臺項目財務預警系統(tǒng)的功能,對財務預警指標體系和模型進行了構建,并通過實證分析,研究了模型的可行性。 在本文的研究中,對以下幾個方面進行了較為深入的研究和創(chuàng)新： (1)運用相關性分析,對J公司的財務信息常用指標進行刪選,減少各指標之間的相關關系和重疊區(qū)域,使構建的指標體系符合了公司的財務實際情況,避免了因財務指標數(shù)據(jù)冗余而造成信息失真。 (2)引入現(xiàn)金流量指標。從現(xiàn)金角度彌補了企業(yè)常用的財務預警指標的不足,益于評價企業(yè)的收益質(zhì)量和企業(yè)的流動性,使財務預警指標體系更加完善。 (3)采用了定性與定量分析相結合的方法。在定量分析模型的基礎上,運用定性指標,對模型進行修正,進一步補充和完善了財務預警系統(tǒng),彌補了傳統(tǒng)預警模型的不足。 (4)對功效系數(shù)法進行了改進。在界定指標臨界值的基礎上,設計計算了指標的單項功效系數(shù),運用模糊層次分析法確定了指標的權數(shù),計算得出綜合功效系數(shù)。 本文所設計的預警系統(tǒng)因指標選取源自一般的財務報表,具有較強的可操作性,可為其他非上市公司財務預警的構建提供參考。
[Abstract]:The significance of financial risk early warning for enterprises is self-evident. On the basis of studying financial risk early warning at home and abroad, this paper expounds the basic theory of financial risk early warning for enterprises, and defines the relevant concepts. On this basis, this paper takes J company platform project as the research object, and divides its financial statements since 2003. On the basis of analysis and research, the paper summarizes the data of financial statements by dividing the repayment ability, profitability, development ability, operation ability and cash flow. After defining the principles and objectives of the risk early warning system, it defines the function of the financial early warning system of J company platform project, and carries out the financial early warning index system and model. Finally, the feasibility of the model is studied through empirical analysis.
In the research of this paper, the following aspects have been deeply studied and innovating:
(1) By using the correlation analysis, the common financial information indicators of J company are deleted to reduce the correlation and overlap area between the indicators, so that the index system conforms to the actual financial situation of the company and avoids the information distortion caused by the redundancy of financial indicators.
(2) Introducing cash flow indicators, which make up for the deficiency of financial early warning indicators commonly used by enterprises from the cash point of view, is beneficial to evaluate the quality of earnings and liquidity of enterprises, and makes the financial early warning indicators system more perfect.
(3) The method of combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis is adopted. On the basis of quantitative analysis model, qualitative index is used to modify the model, which further complements and improves the financial early warning system and makes up for the shortcomings of the traditional early warning model.
(4) The efficiency coefficient method is improved. On the basis of defining the critical value of the index, the single efficiency coefficient of the index is designed and calculated. The weight of the index is determined by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the comprehensive efficiency coefficient is calculated.
The early-warning system designed in this paper has strong maneuverability because the indexes are selected from the general financial statements, which can provide a reference for other non-listed companies to build financial early-warning.
【學位授予單位】：南京大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F426.63;F406.7

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