【摘要】：改革開放后，伴隨外向型經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展以及國家政策的大力支持，我國港口發(fā)展取得較大進步，港口投資建設(shè)步伐不斷加快，港口數(shù)量和規(guī)模不斷擴大，帶動港口城市經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展。面對港口競爭程度日益激烈以及競爭層次不斷提升，專業(yè)化碼頭投資建設(shè)已經(jīng)成為提升中小型港口競爭力、降低物流成本的重要途徑。液體化工碼頭投資建設(shè)是一項復(fù)雜的系統(tǒng)工程，不僅具備港口碼頭投資的影響因素多、建設(shè)周期長、資金投入大以及投資回收期長等特征，還因液體化工品自身屬性特征，液體化工碼頭投資建設(shè)還應(yīng)具備專用性、風(fēng)險性等市場屬性特征，投資風(fēng)險評價成為液體化工碼頭規(guī)劃建設(shè)重要研究問題。 本文以濱州港液體化工碼頭的投資風(fēng)險評價為主要研究內(nèi)容，首先確立濱州港液體化工碼頭投資風(fēng)險評價的理論依據(jù)，提出液體化工碼頭投資的特殊性，并據(jù)此研究濱州港液體化工碼頭的建設(shè)內(nèi)容與規(guī)模、區(qū)位條件、競爭條件、需求預(yù)測與趨勢、財務(wù)分析與經(jīng)濟效益等建設(shè)發(fā)展環(huán)境，論證濱州港液體化工碼頭建設(shè)的現(xiàn)實可行性。其次，結(jié)合液體化工碼頭的屬性特征，，明確濱州港液體化工碼頭的主要投資風(fēng)險因素，通過構(gòu)建相應(yīng)的投資風(fēng)險評價指標體系并采用Bayes網(wǎng)絡(luò)的方法，對濱州港液體化工碼頭各風(fēng)險因素以及整體投資風(fēng)險的風(fēng)險值進行定量測度。同時依據(jù)投資風(fēng)險評價結(jié)果，借助因果分析法，對各投資風(fēng)險因素提出相應(yīng)的防范建議與應(yīng)對策略。最后，總結(jié)本文研究所得到的結(jié)論以及研究不足，并指出今后研究方向。 論文創(chuàng)新之處主要有以下兩個方面：第一，結(jié)合液體化工碼頭投資的特殊性，明確了濱州港液體化工碼頭主要投資風(fēng)險因素，并據(jù)此建立了濱州港液體化工碼頭投資風(fēng)險評價指標體系；第二，將Bayes網(wǎng)絡(luò)方法引入到濱州港液體化工碼頭投資風(fēng)險評價的模型中，定量計算了濱州港液體化工碼頭投資風(fēng)險的風(fēng)險值。 濱州港液體化工碼頭投資風(fēng)險評價研究，不僅對濱州港液體化工碼頭投資決策有著重大指導(dǎo)意義；同時也建立了液體化工碼頭投資風(fēng)險評價指標體系以及風(fēng)險度量模型，完善了中小型港口液體化工碼頭相關(guān)的理論研究。
[Abstract]:After reform and opening up, with the rapid development of export-oriented economy and the support of national policies, China's port development has made great progress, the pace of port investment and construction has been accelerated, the number and scale of ports have been continuously expanded. Drive the rapid development of port city economy. In the face of the increasingly fierce competition of ports and the continuous upgrading of the level of competition, the construction of specialized wharf investment has become an important way to enhance the competitiveness of small and medium-sized ports and reduce logistics costs. The investment construction of liquid chemical wharf is a complex system engineering. It not only has the characteristics of many influencing factors of port wharf investment, long construction period, large capital investment and long payback period of investment, but also because of the properties of liquid chemical products. The investment and construction of liquid chemical wharf should also have the characteristics of market attributes such as specificity and risk. Investment risk evaluation has become an important research problem in the planning and construction of liquid chemical wharf. In this paper, the investment risk assessment of liquid chemical wharf in Binzhou Port is taken as the main research content. Firstly, the theoretical basis for investment risk assessment of liquid chemical wharf in Binzhou Port is established, and the particularity of investment in liquid chemical wharf is put forward. Based on this, the construction content and scale, location condition, competition condition, demand forecast and trend, financial analysis and economic benefit of Binzhou Port liquid Chemical Wharf are studied. To demonstrate the practical feasibility of the construction of liquid chemical wharf in Binzhou Port. Secondly, the main investment risk factors of the liquid chemical wharf in Binzhou Port are defined by combining the attribute characteristics of the liquid chemical wharf, and the corresponding investment risk evaluation index system is constructed and the method of Bayes network is adopted. The risk factors of liquid chemical wharf in Binzhou Port and the risk value of the whole investment risk are quantitatively measured. At the same time, according to the result of investment risk evaluation and with the aid of causality analysis, this paper puts forward the corresponding preventive suggestions and countermeasures for each investment risk factor. Finally, the conclusion of this paper and the lack of research are summarized, and the future research direction is pointed out. The main innovations of this paper are as follows: first, considering the particularity of liquid chemical wharf investment, the main investment risk factors of Binzhou Port liquid Chemical Wharf are defined. Based on this, the investment risk evaluation index system of Binzhou liquid chemical wharf is established. Secondly, the Bayes network method is introduced into the investment risk evaluation model of Binzhou liquid chemical wharf. The risk value of investment risk of liquid chemical wharf in Binzhou Port is calculated quantitatively. The research on investment risk evaluation of liquid chemical wharf in Binzhou Port is not only of great guiding significance to the investment decision of liquid chemical wharf in Binzhou Port, but also establishes the investment risk evaluation index system and risk measurement model of liquid chemical wharf. Improved the medium and small port liquid chemical wharf related theoretical research.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F552;F550.66

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