本文選題：公允價(jià)值 + 盈余預(yù)測(cè)能力��； 參考：《中國(guó)礦業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：公允價(jià)值計(jì)量是我國(guó)會(huì)計(jì)準(zhǔn)則的核心內(nèi)容，也是與國(guó)際會(huì)計(jì)準(zhǔn)則趨同的一個(gè)重要標(biāo)志。美國(guó)財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)準(zhǔn)則委員會(huì)在SFAC NO.2中全面闡釋了會(huì)計(jì)信息的質(zhì)量特征，其中決策有用性是質(zhì)量的最高層次。公允價(jià)值面向未來(lái)，有助于投資者預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)盈余，具有決策有用性。但由于公允價(jià)值所具有的公允性、動(dòng)態(tài)性和估計(jì)性等特征，使其在實(shí)際運(yùn)用中會(huì)受到管理者個(gè)人私利的影響，成為盈余管理的手段，可靠性將降低，，從而影響了公允價(jià)值的盈余預(yù)測(cè)能力。而管理層實(shí)施盈余管理行為時(shí)會(huì)受到債務(wù)契約、市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)程及公司治理的制約。因此，我國(guó)采用公允價(jià)值計(jì)量后，會(huì)計(jì)信息是否具有盈余預(yù)測(cè)能力，進(jìn)而提供決策有用性信息，以及債務(wù)契約、市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)程和公司治理又是否影響公允價(jià)值盈余預(yù)測(cè)能力，已成為我國(guó)會(huì)計(jì)改革亟待研究的重要問(wèn)題。 本文應(yīng)用會(huì)計(jì)目標(biāo)理論、計(jì)量觀與凈盈余理論、全面收益與資產(chǎn)負(fù)債觀及會(huì)計(jì)信息質(zhì)量特征理論探討公允價(jià)值計(jì)量的理論，為研究公允價(jià)值盈余預(yù)測(cè)能力奠定理論基礎(chǔ)，然后通過(guò)債務(wù)契約理論和委托代理理論，從影響公允價(jià)值可靠性角度，對(duì)債務(wù)契約、市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)程和公司治理影響公允價(jià)值盈余預(yù)測(cè)能力進(jìn)行理論分析。在此基礎(chǔ)上，基于資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表法和利潤(rùn)表法，以2009-2012年滬深兩市采用公允價(jià)值計(jì)量的上市公司為總體樣本，采用多元線性回歸分析方法研究了公允價(jià)值采用程度對(duì)盈余預(yù)測(cè)能力的影響；并將總體樣本分別按照借款比重、市場(chǎng)化指數(shù)、公司治理綜合因子得分的中位數(shù)分組，采用分組回歸分析方法研究了債務(wù)契約、市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)程和公司治理是否對(duì)公允價(jià)值盈余預(yù)測(cè)能力產(chǎn)生影響。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，公允價(jià)值采用程度越高，其盈余預(yù)測(cè)能力越強(qiáng)；公允價(jià)值變動(dòng)損益與未來(lái)盈余顯著正相關(guān)；其他綜合收益與未來(lái)盈余不相關(guān)。這基本表明了公允價(jià)值具有盈余預(yù)測(cè)能力，可以向投資者等利益相關(guān)者提供決策有用性信息。債務(wù)契約、市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)程和公司治理均對(duì)公允價(jià)值盈余預(yù)測(cè)能力有顯著影響。借款比重越低、市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)程越高、公司治理水平越高，公允價(jià)值采用程度與盈余預(yù)測(cè)能力的相關(guān)性越強(qiáng)，公允價(jià)值變動(dòng)損益的盈余預(yù)測(cè)能力越強(qiáng)；但其他綜合收益只有在市場(chǎng)化水平高時(shí)才具有盈余預(yù)測(cè)能力�；谏鲜鲅芯�，為提高公允價(jià)值的盈余預(yù)測(cè)能力，本文進(jìn)一步提出了完善有關(guān)公允價(jià)值計(jì)量的準(zhǔn)則、加快市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)程、完善上市公司內(nèi)部治理結(jié)構(gòu)、加強(qiáng)外部監(jiān)管作用等政策性建議。
[Abstract]:Fair value measurement is the core content of Chinese accounting standards and an important symbol of convergence with international accounting standards. The American Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) has comprehensively explained the quality characteristics of accounting information in SFAC NO.2, in which decision-making usefulness is the highest level of quality. Fair value is future-oriented and helpful for investors to predict future earnings. However, due to the characteristics of fair value, such as fairness, dynamics and estimation, it will be affected by the personal interests of managers in practical use, and become a means of earnings management, and its reliability will be reduced. Thus affecting the fair value of earnings forecasting ability. However, the performance of earnings management is restricted by debt contract, marketization and corporate governance. Therefore, after adopting fair value measurement, whether accounting information has the ability to predict earnings, and then provide useful information for decision-making, as well as debt contract, marketization process and corporate governance, will affect the ability of forecasting fair value earnings. Accounting reform in China has become an important issue to be studied. This paper discusses the theory of fair value measurement by applying the theory of accounting objective, the theory of measurement and net earnings, the view of total income, assets and liabilities, and the theory of accounting information quality, which lays a theoretical foundation for the study of the ability of forecasting fair value earnings. Then through debt contract theory and principal-agent theory, from the perspective of influencing fair value reliability, this paper makes a theoretical analysis of debt contract, market-oriented process and corporate governance influence fair value earnings prediction ability. On this basis, based on the balance sheet method and income statement method, taking the listed companies with fair value measurement in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2009-2012 as the overall sample, The influence of the degree of fair value adoption on earnings forecasting ability is studied by using multiple linear regression analysis, and the total samples are grouped according to the proportion of loan, market-oriented index and median score of corporate governance comprehensive factor, respectively. Group regression analysis is used to study whether debt contract, marketization process and corporate governance influence the ability of forecasting fair value earnings. It is found that the higher the use of fair value, the stronger the ability to predict earnings; the positive correlation between the change of fair value and future earnings; the other comprehensive income is not related to future earnings. This basically shows that fair value has the ability to predict earnings and can provide useful information for investors and other stakeholders. Debt contract, marketization process and corporate governance all have significant influence on fair value earnings forecasting ability. The lower the proportion of borrowing, the higher the marketization process, the higher the corporate governance level, the stronger the correlation between the degree of fair value adoption and earnings forecasting ability, the stronger the earnings forecasting ability of fair value change profit or loss. However, other comprehensive returns only in the high level of marketization to have the ability to forecast earnings. Based on the above research, in order to improve the ability of earnings prediction of fair value, this paper further proposes to improve the standards of fair value measurement, accelerate the process of marketization, and improve the internal governance structure of listed companies. Strengthen the role of external supervision and other policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)礦業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F233;F275;F271

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