本文選題：化學(xué)制劑類醫(yī)藥項(xiàng)目　切入點(diǎn)：投資決策　出處：《華南理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：醫(yī)藥行業(yè)長(zhǎng)期以來保持較高增速，在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中占據(jù)重要位置。當(dāng)前在中國(guó)醫(yī)藥健康產(chǎn)業(yè)政策利好,行業(yè)新版GMP改造的背景下，，醫(yī)藥龍頭生產(chǎn)企業(yè)紛紛進(jìn)行新生產(chǎn)基地的投資和建設(shè)。然而，通過調(diào)查研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，現(xiàn)實(shí)中估測(cè)化學(xué)制劑類醫(yī)藥項(xiàng)目（本文簡(jiǎn)寫為：HY類項(xiàng)目）現(xiàn)金流和折現(xiàn)率的方法很多是不正確的，存在非理性行為。通過查閱文獻(xiàn)，暫時(shí)還沒有發(fā)現(xiàn)針對(duì)HY類項(xiàng)目投資決策變量估測(cè)的研究。因此，本文基于行為財(cái)務(wù)理論對(duì)HY類項(xiàng)目投資決策中現(xiàn)金流及折現(xiàn)率的估測(cè)進(jìn)行研究，具有重大的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文首先采用調(diào)研訪談法，調(diào)查了現(xiàn)實(shí)中10個(gè)醫(yī)藥項(xiàng)目，訪談了15位廣州某大型醫(yī)藥集團(tuán)的決策部門、財(cái)務(wù)分析部門及實(shí)施部門的相關(guān)人員，收集了HY類項(xiàng)目的投資特點(diǎn)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的具體表現(xiàn)、決策指標(biāo)的選擇、現(xiàn)金流量構(gòu)成及估測(cè)方法、折現(xiàn)率取值及依據(jù)等情況，總結(jié)歸納出現(xiàn)實(shí)中現(xiàn)金流及資本成本估測(cè)過程中的非理性行為。然后通過對(duì)比分析選擇更具操作性和更高準(zhǔn)確性的現(xiàn)金流估測(cè)方法和資本成本估測(cè)方法，運(yùn)用直接法設(shè)計(jì)出HY類項(xiàng)目現(xiàn)金流估測(cè)表，基于BAPM估測(cè)出HY類項(xiàng)目的資本成本。最后將設(shè)計(jì)出的HY類項(xiàng)目現(xiàn)金流估測(cè)表應(yīng)用于BS醫(yī)藥項(xiàng)目的現(xiàn)金流估測(cè)，利用估測(cè)出來的資本成本，計(jì)算出BS醫(yī)藥項(xiàng)目的凈現(xiàn)值及內(nèi)部報(bào)酬率，并與傳統(tǒng)方法計(jì)算結(jié)果進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析。 本文通過研究發(fā)現(xiàn)： HY類項(xiàng)目的8種具體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)屬于非系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，但對(duì)項(xiàng)目影響較大，可通過現(xiàn)金流調(diào)整來體現(xiàn)其對(duì)價(jià)值的影響；HY類項(xiàng)目現(xiàn)金流估測(cè)過程中常見的有9種非理性行為，資本成本估測(cè)過程中常見的有3種非理性行為。本文還設(shè)計(jì)出HY類項(xiàng)目期初、期中、期末的現(xiàn)金流估測(cè)表，方便其他項(xiàng)目參考使用。本文還發(fā)現(xiàn)，現(xiàn)實(shí)中HY類項(xiàng)目折現(xiàn)率的取值集中在10%-15%這個(gè)范圍；而本文基于BAPM估測(cè)出HY類項(xiàng)目貝塔為0.5530，從而得出HY類項(xiàng)目資本成本為8.93%，與研究團(tuán)隊(duì)的其他成員研究結(jié)論較為一致，可作為HY類項(xiàng)目投資決策中的折現(xiàn)率。 本文最后將設(shè)計(jì)出的HY類項(xiàng)目現(xiàn)金流估測(cè)表和資本成本的計(jì)算結(jié)果應(yīng)用于BS醫(yī)藥項(xiàng)目，利用EXCEL的NPV和IRR函數(shù)計(jì)算出BS醫(yī)藥項(xiàng)目的凈現(xiàn)值為26291萬元，項(xiàng)目的內(nèi)部報(bào)酬率為13.19%。與傳統(tǒng)方法的計(jì)算結(jié)果進(jìn)行對(duì)比，發(fā)現(xiàn)由于傳統(tǒng)方法折現(xiàn)率取值為12%，包含了非系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；以及將利息支出7030萬元計(jì)入增量現(xiàn)金流，期末未考慮回收無形資產(chǎn)終結(jié)值3762萬元的增量現(xiàn)金流，因此導(dǎo)致凈現(xiàn)值與本文計(jì)算結(jié)果差異32803萬元，差異率為56.59%。由此可見，由于傳統(tǒng)方法存在非理性行為，導(dǎo)致其計(jì)算結(jié)果與本文方法的計(jì)算結(jié)果差異較大，因此對(duì)估測(cè)HY類項(xiàng)目的現(xiàn)金流及折現(xiàn)率的傳統(tǒng)方法進(jìn)行改進(jìn)是非常有必要的。 綜上所述，本文得到更符合現(xiàn)實(shí)情況及更具操作性的HY類項(xiàng)目現(xiàn)金流及資本成本的估測(cè)方法，可為其他HY類項(xiàng)目投資決策提供參考，以提高決策質(zhì)量。
[Abstract]:Pharmaceutical industry has maintained a high growth rate for a long time and occupies an important position in the national economy.At present, under the background of the favorable policy of Chinese medicine and health industry and the revamping of the new GMP, leading pharmaceutical production enterprises have invested and constructed the new production base one after another.However, through investigation and research, it is found that many methods of estimating cash flow and discount rate of chemical pharmaceutical projects are incorrect and irrational.By consulting the literature, there is no research on the estimation of investment decision variables for HY projects.Therefore, based on behavioral finance theory, this paper studies the estimation of cash flow and discount rate in investment decision-making of HY projects, which is of great practical significance.In this paper, 10 medical projects are investigated by using the method of investigation and interview, and 15 people from the decision-making department, the financial analysis department and the implementation department of a large pharmaceutical group in Guangzhou are interviewed, and the investment characteristics of the HY project are collected.The concrete performance of risk, the choice of decision index, the composition of cash flow and the method of estimating cash flow, the value and basis of discount rate and so on, are summed up to sum up the irrational behavior in the process of estimating cash flow and capital cost in reality.Then the cash flow estimation method and the capital cost estimation method, which are more operable and more accurate, are compared and analyzed. The cash flow estimation table of HY project is designed by direct method, and the capital cost of HY project is estimated based on BAPM.Finally, the HY project cash flow estimation table is used to estimate the cash flow of BS pharmaceutical project, and the net present value and internal rate of return of BS pharmaceutical project are calculated by using the estimated capital cost.The results are compared with the traditional method.In this paper, we find that the 8 kinds of specific risks of HY project are non-systemic risks, but they have great influence on the project.There are 9 kinds of irrational behaviors in the process of cash flow estimation of HY projects and 3 kinds of irrational behaviors in the process of capital cost estimation.This paper also designs a cash flow estimation table for HY projects at the beginning, middle and end of the project, which is convenient for other projects to use.This paper also finds that in reality, the discount rate of HY projects is in the range of 10- 15%.Based on BAPM, the beta of HY project is estimated to be 0.5530, and the capital cost of HY project is 8.93, which is consistent with the conclusion of other members of the research team, and can be used as the discount rate in the investment decision of HY project.In the end, the paper applies the cash flow estimate and the calculation result of the capital cost of the HY project to the BS medicine project. The net present value of the BS medicine project is 262.91 million yuan by using the NPV and IRR function of EXCEL, and the internal rate of return of the project is 13.19 million yuan.Compared with the traditional method, it is found that the discount rate of the traditional method is 12, including non-systemic risk, and the interest expense of 70.3 million yuan is included in the incremental cash flow.No incremental cash flow of 37.62 million yuan is taken into account at the end of the period, so the difference between the net present value and the result of this paper is 328.03 million yuan, and the difference rate is 56.59 yuan.Therefore, it is necessary to improve the traditional method to estimate the cash flow and discount rate of HY projects because of the irrationality behavior of the traditional method, which leads to the difference between the calculation results and the results of the present method.To sum up, this paper obtains more realistic and more operable estimation method of cash flow and capital cost of HY project, which can provide reference for other HY project investment decision and improve the quality of decision making.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F406.72;F426.72

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