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上市公司自愿性會(huì)計(jì)信息披露與分析師盈利預(yù)測(cè)的關(guān)系研究

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-03-24 20:52

  本文選題:自愿性會(huì)計(jì)信息 切入點(diǎn):分析師 出處:《天津商業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文


【摘要】:會(huì)計(jì)信息披露在維持證券市場(chǎng)的健康運(yùn)行方面發(fā)揮著非常重要的作用,一方面,上市公司可通過會(huì)計(jì)信息披露向投資者傳遞公司信息,另一方面,投資者可根據(jù)會(huì)計(jì)信息披露了解上市公司的財(cái)務(wù)狀況和經(jīng)營(yíng)成果。近年來,伴隨著資本市場(chǎng)的世界范圍內(nèi)擴(kuò)張,上市公司在增加融資渠道的同時(shí),相互之間的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)也愈加激烈,為了籌集到足夠的資本實(shí)現(xiàn)高速、穩(wěn)定發(fā)展,,上市公司有充足的動(dòng)機(jī)和意愿在滿足了強(qiáng)制性披露要求之外,向投資者主動(dòng)披露更多的會(huì)計(jì)信息,即自愿性會(huì)計(jì)信息。但是由于自愿性會(huì)計(jì)信息的專業(yè)性、內(nèi)容形式的隨意性,以及人數(shù)眾多的普通投資者在知識(shí)和認(rèn)知能力方面的有限性,使得普通投資者在正確解讀這部分信息時(shí)存在著一定的障礙,此時(shí),就凸顯了證券分析師這一行業(yè)的重要性。本文從分析自愿性會(huì)計(jì)信息需求主體的角度出發(fā),立足于實(shí)證研究證券分析師對(duì)于自愿性會(huì)計(jì)信息的反應(yīng),即自愿性會(huì)計(jì)信息的披露程度是否能夠顯著影響證券分析師的盈利預(yù)測(cè)。 本文以自行構(gòu)建的指標(biāo)體系作為自愿性會(huì)計(jì)信息披露程度的衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn),從深市A股主板上市公司選取樣本作為研究對(duì)象,首先,評(píng)價(jià)了我國(guó)上市公司自愿性會(huì)計(jì)信息披露狀況,并對(duì)現(xiàn)存問題進(jìn)行了原因分析;其次,通過建立多元回歸方程,綜合運(yùn)用描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)分析、相關(guān)性分析以及多元回歸分析等計(jì)量方法,從分析師盈利預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確性、分析師之間盈利預(yù)測(cè)差異以及分析師跟進(jìn)人數(shù)三個(gè)方面檢驗(yàn)了分析師盈利預(yù)測(cè)對(duì)自愿性會(huì)計(jì)信息披露程度的反應(yīng)。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明自愿性會(huì)計(jì)信息披露程度同分析師盈利預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確性顯著正相關(guān),同分析師之間盈利預(yù)測(cè)差異顯著負(fù)相關(guān),同分析師跟進(jìn)人數(shù)顯著負(fù)相關(guān)。筆者認(rèn)為分析師是上市公司自愿性會(huì)計(jì)信息披露的重要需求主體,按照供需平衡原理,加快推進(jìn)分析師行業(yè)的成熟化和規(guī)范化發(fā)展,利用需求刺激供給,從而有效地提高上市公司自愿性會(huì)計(jì)信息披露程度。
[Abstract]:Accounting information disclosure plays a very important role in maintaining the healthy operation of the securities market. On the one hand, listed companies can transmit company information to investors through accounting information disclosure, on the other hand, According to the disclosure of accounting information, investors can understand the financial situation and operating results of listed companies. In recent years, with the worldwide expansion of capital markets, the competition between listed companies in increasing financing channels is becoming more and more intense. In order to raise enough capital to achieve high speed and steady development, listed companies have sufficient motivation and willingness to disclose more accounting information to investors on their own initiative, in addition to meeting the mandatory disclosure requirements. That is, voluntary accounting information. However, due to the specialty of voluntary accounting information, the arbitrariness of content form, and the limited knowledge and cognitive ability of a large number of ordinary investors, It makes ordinary investors have some obstacles in correctly interpreting this part of information, at this time, it highlights the importance of the securities analyst industry. This paper analyzes the voluntary accounting information demand from the point of view of the main body of accounting information, Based on the empirical study of securities analysts' response to voluntary accounting information, that is, whether the disclosure of voluntary accounting information can significantly affect the earnings forecast of securities analysts. This paper takes the self-constructed index system as the measure of voluntary accounting information disclosure, selects samples from Shenzhen A-share main Board listed companies as the research object, first of all, This paper evaluates the situation of voluntary accounting information disclosure of listed companies in China, and analyzes the reasons for the existing problems. Secondly, through the establishment of multiple regression equations and the comprehensive use of descriptive statistical analysis, Correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis and other measurement methods, from the analyst earnings forecast accuracy, The differences between analysts' earnings forecasts and the number of analysts' followers tested the response of analysts' earnings forecasts to voluntary accounting information disclosure. The empirical results show that the degree of voluntary accounting information disclosure is the same as that of analysis. There is a significant positive correlation between the accuracy of the teacher's profit forecast, There is a significant negative correlation between the difference of earnings forecast and the number of analysts. The author thinks that the analyst is an important demand subject of voluntary accounting information disclosure of listed companies, according to the principle of balance between supply and demand. Accelerate the development of maturity and standardization of the analyst industry, use demand to stimulate supply, so as to effectively improve the degree of voluntary accounting information disclosure of listed companies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:天津商業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2014
【分類號(hào)】:F275;F233

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