本文選題：信息實(shí)體模擬　切入點(diǎn)：火電運(yùn)維項(xiàng)目　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)》2014年博士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著電力體制改革方向的明朗和深入,發(fā)電市場(chǎng)將發(fā)生明顯的變化,在“廠網(wǎng)分開(kāi),競(jìng)價(jià)上網(wǎng)”改革的形式下,火電運(yùn)維項(xiàng)目市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)將非常激烈。改革以后的火電運(yùn)維項(xiàng)目經(jīng)營(yíng)模式如何定位、電價(jià)如何確定、市場(chǎng)模式如何建立、如何爭(zhēng)取電力市場(chǎng)確定以后的競(jìng)爭(zhēng),有實(shí)踐經(jīng)驗(yàn)的高級(jí)管理人員如何進(jìn)行決策,諸多問(wèn)題已經(jīng)擺到了管理者的面前。要解決這些問(wèn)題,僅靠經(jīng)驗(yàn),已不能滿足眼前的發(fā)展需要,然而,利用現(xiàn)在的科技發(fā)展成果,展開(kāi)各種方式的仿真研究,既省錢(qián)省力,又能滿足現(xiàn)實(shí)的急需。因此在我國(guó)展開(kāi)火電運(yùn)維項(xiàng)目財(cái)務(wù)決策仿真的研究是客觀的需要,也是現(xiàn)實(shí)的選擇。研究科學(xué)的、合理的、適用的火電運(yùn)維項(xiàng)目財(cái)務(wù)決策仿真的理論、方法以及開(kāi)發(fā)相應(yīng)的軟件系統(tǒng),是當(dāng)今火電運(yùn)維項(xiàng)目財(cái)務(wù)決策仿真理論研究的一個(gè)重要核心問(wèn)題,也是目前國(guó)際上管理科學(xué)研究的前沿問(wèn)題之一,對(duì)提高我國(guó)火力發(fā)電公司管理人員的決策水平、促進(jìn)我國(guó)電力工業(yè)的發(fā)展有著重大的理論價(jià)值和實(shí)用價(jià)值。 本文將火力發(fā)電項(xiàng)目分為三個(gè)子項(xiàng)目,包括火力發(fā)電設(shè)計(jì)項(xiàng)目、火力發(fā)電工程建設(shè)項(xiàng)目以及火力發(fā)電運(yùn)行維護(hù)項(xiàng)目即火電運(yùn)維項(xiàng)目。本文主要針對(duì)火電運(yùn)維項(xiàng)目的財(cái)務(wù)決策進(jìn)行研究。 論文通過(guò)分析當(dāng)前國(guó)內(nèi)外企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)發(fā)展模擬決策系統(tǒng)的研究現(xiàn)狀,在進(jìn)行文獻(xiàn)研究、理論研究和實(shí)地調(diào)研的基礎(chǔ)上,分析了對(duì)火電運(yùn)維項(xiàng)目財(cái)務(wù)決策仿真理論與實(shí)現(xiàn)研究的必要性,介紹了當(dāng)前學(xué)術(shù)界關(guān)于火電運(yùn)維項(xiàng)目財(cái)務(wù)決策仿真理論研究的狀況及不足,提出了火電運(yùn)維項(xiàng)目財(cái)務(wù)決策仿真的概念和研究?jī)?nèi)容,分析了影響火電運(yùn)維項(xiàng)目財(cái)務(wù)決策的主體、客體、媒體因素；利用粗糙集理論構(gòu)建了火電運(yùn)維項(xiàng)目財(cái)務(wù)決策仿真指標(biāo)體系；設(shè)計(jì)了火電運(yùn)維項(xiàng)目財(cái)務(wù)決策仿真的總體框架、具體框架和數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)。尤其是在決策模擬、系統(tǒng)論等基本理論的指導(dǎo)下,為了實(shí)現(xiàn)信息實(shí)體化的目標(biāo),本文研發(fā)了火電運(yùn)維項(xiàng)目財(cái)務(wù)決策仿真實(shí)物沙盤(pán)系統(tǒng)。以容量和電量訂單變動(dòng)為手段,建立了虛擬的由壟斷到完全競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的“電力及電煤交易中心”。用實(shí)物形態(tài)表現(xiàn)出了電力生產(chǎn)的過(guò)程。在研發(fā)成功的火電運(yùn)維項(xiàng)目財(cái)務(wù)決策仿真實(shí)物沙盤(pán)系統(tǒng)的基礎(chǔ)上,首次利用決策模擬原理開(kāi)發(fā)具有火電運(yùn)維項(xiàng)目特色的、適用于火力發(fā)電公司高級(jí)管理人員決策的軟件系統(tǒng)。建立了火電運(yùn)維項(xiàng)目財(cái)務(wù)決策仿真信度和效度指標(biāo)體系,對(duì)火電運(yùn)維項(xiàng)目財(cái)務(wù)決策仿真進(jìn)行了信度和效度驗(yàn)證。 本文主要?jiǎng)?chuàng)新點(diǎn)： 1.提出了火電運(yùn)維項(xiàng)目財(cái)務(wù)決策仿真的概念,利用粗糙集原理對(duì)火電運(yùn)維項(xiàng)目的決策主體、客體、媒體的指標(biāo)進(jìn)行屬性約簡(jiǎn),構(gòu)建了火電運(yùn)維項(xiàng)目財(cái)務(wù)決策仿真的指標(biāo)體系。 2.給出了火電運(yùn)維項(xiàng)目管理人員進(jìn)行財(cái)務(wù)決策的輔助決策方法。為火電運(yùn)維項(xiàng)目管理人員在電力交易、電煤交易以及投資等重大財(cái)務(wù)決策提供參考,使其決策得到優(yōu)化。 3.建立了虛擬的“電力交易中心”與“電煤交易中心”。以實(shí)物形態(tài)模擬出了電力采購(gòu)與電煤采購(gòu)的市場(chǎng)化交易,并研發(fā)出了火電運(yùn)維項(xiàng)目財(cái)務(wù)決策的實(shí)物模擬和軟件仿真系統(tǒng)。 4.在改進(jìn)的熵權(quán)法原理的基礎(chǔ)上,建立了火電運(yùn)維項(xiàng)目財(cái)務(wù)仿真決策系統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型,開(kāi)發(fā)了火電運(yùn)維項(xiàng)目財(cái)務(wù)仿真決策經(jīng)濟(jì)效益綜合評(píng)價(jià)系統(tǒng)。
[Abstract]:With the development of electric power system reform direction is clear and thorough, power market will undergo significant changes, in the "separation of plant and network, price reform, operation and maintenance of thermal power project market competition will be very fierce. How to locate the management mode after the reform of the power operation project, how to determine the price, how to build the market model, how to fight for the future how to determine the power market competition, senior management personnel with practical experience to make decisions, many problems has been placed in front of managers. To solve these problems, relying on the experience, can not meet the needs of the immediate development however, by now the development of science and technology achievements, simulation of the deployment of various ways, both to save money and effort, and can meet the practical need. So research in our country started the financial decision-making power simulation operation project is the objective need, is also the realistic choice of science, Reasonable, power operation project financial decision-making simulation for the theory, method and development of the corresponding software system is an important core problem in today's power operation project financial decision simulation theory research, is currently on the international frontiers of management science, to improve the level of decision-making power management company in China and promote the development of China's electric power industry is of great theoretical value and practical value.
In this paper, the thermal power project is divided into three sub projects, including thermal power design project, thermal power engineering construction project and thermal power operation and maintenance project, namely thermal power operation and maintenance project.
By analyzing the current research situation of domestic and international business development simulation decision system, in the literature research, theoretical research and field research, analysis of the thermal power maintenance project financial decision-making simulation theory and necessity of research, introduces the current academic circles on the thermal power maintenance project financial decision simulation theory research status and the insufficiency, proposed the concept of financial decision-making power operation simulation project and research contents, analysis of the impact of the main financial decision-making power operation project object, media factors; using the theory to construct the financial decision-making index system of thermal power project operation simulation of rough set; design the overall framework of the simulation of financial decision of power operation project, concrete framework and database especially in the decision-making simulation, the basic theory of system theory, under the guidance of the entity in order to realize the information of the target, this paper research The thermal power maintenance project financial decision simulation system. The sand capacity and energy variation orders as a means to establish a virtual complete competition from monopoly to the electricity and coal trading center. With the physical form showing the process of power production. Based on the successful development of the operation and maintenance of thermal power project financial decision simulation sand table system on the first use of decision simulation principle development of thermal power operation project characteristic, the software system is suitable for the senior management of thermal power company decision-making. The thermal power maintenance project financial decision simulation reliability and validity of the index system, the simulation of financial decision of power operation project of reliability and validity.
The main innovation points in this paper are:
1., the concept of financial decision simulation for thermal power operation and maintenance project is put forward. Rough set theory is applied to attribute reduction to the decision-making subject, object and media index of thermal power operation and maintenance project, and the index system of financial decision-making simulation for power plant operation and maintenance project is constructed.
2., the assistant decision-making method of financial decision-making for thermal power operation and maintenance project managers is given. It can provide references for thermal power operation and maintenance project managers in major financial decisions such as power trading, electricity and coal trading and investment, and optimize their decisions.
3., a virtual "power trading center" and "electric coal trading center" have been established. In the form of physical form, the market transaction of power purchase and electric coal purchase has been simulated, and the physical simulation and software simulation system of the financial decision-making of thermal power operation and maintenance project has been developed.
4., based on the improved entropy weight method, a comprehensive evaluation model of the economic performance of the financial simulation decision system of thermal power operation and maintenance project is established, and a comprehensive evaluation system for the financial simulation of the thermal power operation and maintenance project is developed.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F406.72;F426.61

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