本文關(guān)鍵詞： 風(fēng)電企業(yè) 財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警 模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià) BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近些年,受到政府對(duì)于清潔可再生能源的重視,我國風(fēng)力發(fā)電企業(yè)取得了高速的發(fā)展。但是由于風(fēng)電產(chǎn)品的特殊性,其面臨的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也日趨加大。任何企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)是一個(gè)循序漸進(jìn)的過程,財(cái)務(wù)的惡化情況可以反映危機(jī)的程度。為了防范風(fēng)電企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)帶來的損失,要對(duì)風(fēng)力發(fā)電企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行預(yù)警。但是現(xiàn)階段對(duì)于行業(yè)特征展開的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警研究不多,而對(duì)風(fēng)力發(fā)電企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警更少,準(zhǔn)確針對(duì)風(fēng)力發(fā)電企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行預(yù)警,對(duì)于風(fēng)電企業(yè)的發(fā)展尤為重要。 首先,在綜述國內(nèi)外財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警成果及財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警理論的基礎(chǔ)上界定了財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)二者之間的界限,探討了財(cái)務(wù)分析、財(cái)務(wù)評(píng)價(jià)和財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警之間的關(guān)系。其次,分析了我國風(fēng)力發(fā)電企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)現(xiàn)狀,并對(duì)產(chǎn)生的原因進(jìn)行了論證,建立了一套針對(duì)性較強(qiáng)的、包含了定量指標(biāo)和定性指標(biāo)的風(fēng)力發(fā)電企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系。這些指標(biāo)體系除了償債能力、營(yíng)運(yùn)能力、盈利能力、發(fā)展能力、盈利質(zhì)量五個(gè)一級(jí)指標(biāo)中常見的基本指標(biāo)外,還引進(jìn)了Eva、現(xiàn)金流量、審計(jì)意見和內(nèi)部控制等較新的指標(biāo)。再次,在指標(biāo)體系的基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建了兩個(gè)數(shù)學(xué)模型,-即模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警模型和BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警模型,并分別對(duì)模型進(jìn)行了驗(yàn)證。最后,總結(jié)了模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)預(yù)警模型和BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預(yù)警模型對(duì)于風(fēng)力發(fā)電企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)測(cè)能力的研究成果,指出了存在的問題與不足,明確了今后進(jìn)一步研究的方向。
[Abstract]:In recent years, due to the attention of the government on clean and renewable energy, wind power enterprises in China have made rapid development. However, due to the particularity of wind power products, Financial crisis of any enterprise is a gradual process, and the deterioration of financial situation can reflect the extent of the crisis. The financial risk of wind power enterprises should be forewarned. But at this stage, there are few researches on financial risk warning for industry characteristics, and less financial risk warning for wind power enterprises. It is very important for the development of wind power enterprise to accurately warn the financial risk of wind power enterprise. First of all, on the basis of summarizing the financial early warning results and the financial risk early-warning theory at home and abroad, this paper defines the boundary between financial risk and financial crisis, and probes into the relationship among financial analysis, financial evaluation and financial early-warning. This paper analyzes the present financial situation of wind power generation enterprises in China, and demonstrates the causes, and establishes a set of strong pertinence. The financial risk early warning index system of wind power enterprises including quantitative and qualitative indicators. These index systems include solvency, operating capacity, profitability, development ability, In addition to the basic indicators common in the five first-level indicators of profit quality, new indicators such as Eva, cash flow, audit opinions and internal controls have been introduced. Thirdly, on the basis of the indicator system, Two mathematical models, namely fuzzy comprehensive evaluation financial risk early warning model and BP neural network financial risk early warning model, are constructed and verified respectively. This paper summarizes the research results of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation early warning model and BP neural network early warning model for the financial risk prediction ability of wind power enterprises, points out the existing problems and shortcomings, and clarifies the direction of further research in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F406.7;F426.61

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