本文關鍵詞：110千伏HL輸變電工程財務可行性評價及風險分析　出處：《華南理工大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 可行性研究 財務評價 風險分析

【摘要】：電力作為基礎能源產業(yè)，隨著社會經濟水平的發(fā)展，社會對電力供應的要求也日益提高。而隨著居民對用電量以及供電可靠性要求的不斷提高，必然伴隨著大量的輸變電設施投入建設。輸變電項目的可行性研究和風險研究是電力生產規(guī)劃的重要部分，對社會經濟發(fā)展起著很重要的作用。 C市位于廣州市東北部，隨著當?shù)亟洕目焖僭鲩L，用電需求隨之激增。當期C市正面臨著供電不足，用電緊張的趨勢。HL項目正是為了緩解項目所在地區(qū)用電需求緊張的局面而進行規(guī)劃設計的，通過項目的建設將有效提高當?shù)氐墓╇娏恳约肮╇娍煽啃裕瑴p輕當?shù)仉娋W(wǎng)壓力，起到保證居民用電，促進當?shù)亟洕l(fā)展的效果。項目投資決策前必須要對項目進行可行性研究，在項目技術是可行的前提條件下，還要對項目進行財務可行性研究，并進行響應的風險評估和應對措施分析。 本文針對C市現(xiàn)有環(huán)境，結合HL項目的建設設想，對HL輸變電項目的投資估算、財務融資、財務收益進行了分析研究，通過敏感性分析評估了風險對項目建設的影響，并針對性地提出了防范對策。本文首先對HL輸變電項目建設的所在地以及項目建設概況進行了分析，對項目的建設規(guī)模、建設時間和選址的合理性進行了分析。通過融資的角度，分析了項目的籌資比例，確定了項目籌資的方式和計劃籌資年限。根據(jù)《輸變電工程經濟評價導則》，對項目的財務數(shù)據(jù)進行分析和計算。對項目的盈利能力、償債能力進行了量化分析。通過計算得出項目的凈現(xiàn)值為1131.88萬元，，項目的內部收益率為10.08%，項目的投資回收期為10年。項目的資產負債率、利息備付率、償債備付率也優(yōu)于同行業(yè)項目的水平。然后通過對影響項目收益的因素進行了單因素敏感性分析以及多因素敏感性分析，對可能影響項目收益的關鍵性因素進行了評估，提供了一定的控制思路，以確保項目在財務上可行。 依據(jù)對過往輸變電項目經驗以及HL輸變電項目的實際情況，對HL輸變電項目的風險進行了評估、分類以及應對措施的分析。本文將HL輸變電項目的風險依據(jù)來源劃分為技術風險、管理風險和環(huán)境風險三類，對不同類型的風險在HL項目中實際發(fā)生的影響和應對措施進行了定性分析。
[Abstract]:As the basic energy industry, with the development of social economic level, the demand for power supply is also increasing, and with the increasing demand for electricity consumption and reliability of the residents. The feasibility study and risk study of transmission and transformation project is an important part of electric power production planning and plays an important role in the development of social economy. City C is located in the northeast of Guangzhou, with the rapid growth of the local economy, the demand for electricity has soared. The trend of power shortage. HL project is designed to alleviate the shortage of electricity demand in the area where the project is located. The construction of the project will effectively improve the local electricity supply and power supply reliability. It is necessary to study the feasibility of the project before the project investment decision, under the condition that the project technology is a feasible prerequisite to reduce the pressure of the local power grid, to ensure the residents' electricity consumption and to promote the local economic development. Financial feasibility study, risk assessment and response analysis of the project are also carried out. According to the existing environment of C city, combined with the construction assumption of HL project, this paper analyzes and studies the investment estimation, financial financing and financial income of HL transmission and transformation project. Through sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of risk on the project construction, and targeted to put forward preventive measures. Firstly, this paper analyzes the location of HL power transmission and transformation project construction and the general situation of the project construction. The construction scale, construction time and location of the project are analyzed. Through the perspective of financing, the financing ratio of the project is analyzed. According to the Economic Evaluation guidelines of Transmission and Transformation Project, the financial data of the project are analyzed and calculated, and the profitability of the project is analyzed. The net present value of the project is eleven million three hundred and eighteen thousand and eight hundred yuan and the internal rate of return of the project is 10.08%. The investment payback period of the project is 10 years. The debt service reserve ratio is also superior to the same industry project level. Then the single factor sensitivity analysis and the multi-factor sensitivity analysis are carried out on the factors that affect the project income. The key factors that may affect the project income are evaluated, and some control ideas are provided to ensure the financial feasibility of the project. According to the past experience of power transmission and transformation project and the actual situation of HL transmission and transformation project, the risk of HL transmission and transformation project is evaluated. This paper divides the risk of HL transmission and transformation project into three categories: technical risk, management risk and environmental risk. The impact of different types of risks in HL projects and the countermeasures are analyzed qualitatively.
【學位授予單位】：華南理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.61;F406.7

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