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  本文關(guān)鍵詞：110千伏HL輸變電工程財務(wù)可行性評價及風(fēng)險分析　出處：《華南理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 可行性研究 財務(wù)評價 風(fēng)險分析

【摘要】：電力作為基礎(chǔ)能源產(chǎn)業(yè)，隨著社會經(jīng)濟(jì)水平的發(fā)展，社會對電力供應(yīng)的要求也日益提高。而隨著居民對用電量以及供電可靠性要求的不斷提高，必然伴隨著大量的輸變電設(shè)施投入建設(shè)。輸變電項目的可行性研究和風(fēng)險研究是電力生產(chǎn)規(guī)劃的重要部分，對社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展起著很重要的作用。 C市位于廣州市東北部，隨著當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長，用電需求隨之激增。當(dāng)期C市正面臨著供電不足，用電緊張的趨勢。HL項目正是為了緩解項目所在地區(qū)用電需求緊張的局面而進(jìn)行規(guī)劃設(shè)計的，通過項目的建設(shè)將有效提高當(dāng)?shù)氐墓╇娏恳约肮╇娍煽啃�，減輕當(dāng)?shù)仉娋W(wǎng)壓力，起到保證居民用電，促進(jìn)當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的效果。項目投資決策前必須要對項目進(jìn)行可行性研究，在項目技術(shù)是可行的前提條件下，還要對項目進(jìn)行財務(wù)可行性研究，并進(jìn)行響應(yīng)的風(fēng)險評估和應(yīng)對措施分析。 本文針對C市現(xiàn)有環(huán)境，結(jié)合HL項目的建設(shè)設(shè)想，對HL輸變電項目的投資估算、財務(wù)融資、財務(wù)收益進(jìn)行了分析研究，通過敏感性分析評估了風(fēng)險對項目建設(shè)的影響，并針對性地提出了防范對策。本文首先對HL輸變電項目建設(shè)的所在地以及項目建設(shè)概況進(jìn)行了分析，對項目的建設(shè)規(guī)模、建設(shè)時間和選址的合理性進(jìn)行了分析。通過融資的角度，分析了項目的籌資比例，確定了項目籌資的方式和計劃籌資年限。根據(jù)《輸變電工程經(jīng)濟(jì)評價導(dǎo)則》，對項目的財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析和計算。對項目的盈利能力、償債能力進(jìn)行了量化分析。通過計算得出項目的凈現(xiàn)值為1131.88萬元，，項目的內(nèi)部收益率為10.08%，項目的投資回收期為10年。項目的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率、利息備付率、償債備付率也優(yōu)于同行業(yè)項目的水平。然后通過對影響項目收益的因素進(jìn)行了單因素敏感性分析以及多因素敏感性分析，對可能影響項目收益的關(guān)鍵性因素進(jìn)行了評估，提供了一定的控制思路，以確保項目在財務(wù)上可行。 依據(jù)對過往輸變電項目經(jīng)驗以及HL輸變電項目的實(shí)際情況，對HL輸變電項目的風(fēng)險進(jìn)行了評估、分類以及應(yīng)對措施的分析。本文將HL輸變電項目的風(fēng)險依據(jù)來源劃分為技術(shù)風(fēng)險、管理風(fēng)險和環(huán)境風(fēng)險三類，對不同類型的風(fēng)險在HL項目中實(shí)際發(fā)生的影響和應(yīng)對措施進(jìn)行了定性分析。
[Abstract]:As the basic energy industry, with the development of social economic level, the demand for power supply is also increasing, and with the increasing demand for electricity consumption and reliability of the residents. The feasibility study and risk study of transmission and transformation project is an important part of electric power production planning and plays an important role in the development of social economy. City C is located in the northeast of Guangzhou, with the rapid growth of the local economy, the demand for electricity has soared. The trend of power shortage. HL project is designed to alleviate the shortage of electricity demand in the area where the project is located. The construction of the project will effectively improve the local electricity supply and power supply reliability. It is necessary to study the feasibility of the project before the project investment decision, under the condition that the project technology is a feasible prerequisite to reduce the pressure of the local power grid, to ensure the residents' electricity consumption and to promote the local economic development. Financial feasibility study, risk assessment and response analysis of the project are also carried out. According to the existing environment of C city, combined with the construction assumption of HL project, this paper analyzes and studies the investment estimation, financial financing and financial income of HL transmission and transformation project. Through sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of risk on the project construction, and targeted to put forward preventive measures. Firstly, this paper analyzes the location of HL power transmission and transformation project construction and the general situation of the project construction. The construction scale, construction time and location of the project are analyzed. Through the perspective of financing, the financing ratio of the project is analyzed. According to the Economic Evaluation guidelines of Transmission and Transformation Project, the financial data of the project are analyzed and calculated, and the profitability of the project is analyzed. The net present value of the project is eleven million three hundred and eighteen thousand and eight hundred yuan and the internal rate of return of the project is 10.08%. The investment payback period of the project is 10 years. The debt service reserve ratio is also superior to the same industry project level. Then the single factor sensitivity analysis and the multi-factor sensitivity analysis are carried out on the factors that affect the project income. The key factors that may affect the project income are evaluated, and some control ideas are provided to ensure the financial feasibility of the project. According to the past experience of power transmission and transformation project and the actual situation of HL transmission and transformation project, the risk of HL transmission and transformation project is evaluated. This paper divides the risk of HL transmission and transformation project into three categories: technical risk, management risk and environmental risk. The impact of different types of risks in HL projects and the countermeasures are analyzed qualitatively.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.61;F406.7

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