本文選題：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)商業(yè)模式　切入點(diǎn)：DCF估值　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著中國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)產(chǎn)業(yè)的日漸興盛,與之相關(guān)的投資、融資活動(dòng)也變得更加活躍。而國(guó)際和國(guó)內(nèi)的專家、學(xué)者們對(duì)企業(yè)估值模型的研究也一直處在不斷發(fā)展進(jìn)步中。無(wú)論是在學(xué)術(shù)研究界還是在資本投資領(lǐng)域,對(duì)于企業(yè)估值模型的研究和應(yīng)用都有著迫切的需要和十分重大的意義。目前對(duì)于上市公司估值的研究方法包括現(xiàn)金流折現(xiàn)法(DCF)、可比較公司估值法、實(shí)物期權(quán)估值法。本文著力于上市公司估值中最活躍也是最難以解決的部分:針對(duì)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)的價(jià)值評(píng)估。通過(guò)對(duì)目前主流估值模型的研究和應(yīng)用,并比較評(píng)判其各自的優(yōu)點(diǎn)和缺憾,從理論分析中找出各個(gè)估值模型的短板。而后通過(guò)一個(gè)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)的真實(shí)案例,搜集相關(guān)的數(shù)據(jù)加以分析,力求通過(guò)數(shù)據(jù)的比對(duì)和模型的應(yīng)用,構(gòu)建一個(gè)對(duì)現(xiàn)有估值模型的改進(jìn)方案,希望能為互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)的估值提供一定的參考和帶來(lái)新的思路。案例研究主要運(yùn)用到的理論基礎(chǔ)為DCF現(xiàn)金流折現(xiàn)理論、以市盈率、市凈率為代表的相對(duì)估值理論,并根據(jù)目前對(duì)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)估值有著重大影響和意義的梅特卡夫法則(Metcalfe's Law),選擇互聯(lián)網(wǎng)活躍用戶數(shù)這一關(guān)鍵性因素對(duì)傳統(tǒng)的市銷率相對(duì)估值模型進(jìn)行改進(jìn),得出一個(gè)基于市場(chǎng)銷售額、客戶數(shù)的多因子相對(duì)估值模型。分別運(yùn)用現(xiàn)金流折現(xiàn)模型、市盈率估值模型及改進(jìn)的多因子相對(duì)估值模型對(duì)上市企業(yè)“生意寶”進(jìn)行估值,比較三種估值模型結(jié)果,可得出對(duì)于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)的估值,運(yùn)用梅特卡夫法則將客戶活躍用戶數(shù)作為估值參數(shù)的新模型有著比傳統(tǒng)模型更貼合企業(yè)實(shí)際價(jià)值的估值結(jié)果,但在模型的實(shí)際運(yùn)用中,由于改進(jìn)的模型為市銷率相對(duì)估值模型,本身以銷售額作為估值參數(shù),已經(jīng)隱含了客戶帶來(lái)的價(jià)值,因此添加的參數(shù)活躍用戶數(shù)應(yīng)取一次方面非機(jī)械運(yùn)用梅特卡夫法則的客戶數(shù)的平方作估值估計(jì)更為準(zhǔn)確。經(jīng)理論分析論證,新的估值模型既保留了相對(duì)估值法的客觀性的優(yōu)點(diǎn),又考慮了影響估值的內(nèi)生變量,因此得到的估值結(jié)果更為理想。
[Abstract]:As China's Internet industry flourishes and the related investments become more active, international and domestic experts, Scholars' research on corporate valuation models is also in the process of continuous development, whether in the field of academic research or in the field of capital investment. There is an urgent need and great significance for the research and application of the enterprise valuation model. At present, the research methods of the listed company valuation include the cash flow discounted method, the comparable company valuation method, the cash flow discounted method and the comparable company valuation method. Real option valuation method. This paper focuses on the most active and difficult part of the valuation of listed companies: the valuation of Internet companies. Through the research and application of the current mainstream valuation model, And compare their advantages and disadvantages, from the theoretical analysis to find out the short board of each valuation model. Then through a real case of Internet enterprises, collect relevant data to analyze. Strive to build an improved scheme for the existing valuation model through the comparison of data and the application of the model. The main theoretical basis of the case study is the discounted cash flow theory of DCF, the relative valuation theory represented by price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio. According to Metcalfes Law, which has great influence and significance on the valuation of Internet enterprises at present, this paper selects the key factor of the number of Internet active users to improve the traditional relative valuation model of market sales rate. A multi-factor relative valuation model based on the market sales and the number of customers is obtained. The discounted cash flow model, the price-earnings ratio valuation model and the improved multi-factor relative valuation model are used to evaluate the "business treasure" of listed enterprises. By comparing the results of the three valuation models, we can conclude that the new model, which uses Metcalfe's rule to take the number of active customers as the valuation parameter, is more suitable to the real value of the enterprise than the traditional model. However, in the practical application of the model, because the improved model is the relative valuation model of the market sales rate, the value brought by the customer has been implied by taking the sales volume as the valuation parameter. Therefore, the number of active users added should be estimated more accurately by the square of the number of clients who are not mechanically used in the Metcalfe rule. Through theoretical analysis, it is proved that the new valuation model not only preserves the advantage of objectivity of the relative valuation method, The endogenous variables which affect the estimation are also considered, so the estimated results are more ideal.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F724.6;F832.51

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