經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的控制模型研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-11 15:32
【摘要】： 對于當(dāng)代各國而言，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長是一個備受政府、公眾和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家關(guān)注的問題。各國政府在制定政策時無一例外地將保證經(jīng)濟(jì)增長作為一項宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)；公眾普遍認(rèn)為，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長是經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮和國民福利提高的前提，是解決其它經(jīng)濟(jì)疾病的萬能良方。正是因為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長問題如此重要，越來越多的人開始將注意力投入到經(jīng)濟(jì)增長問題的研究中。對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長問題的研究對于促進(jìn)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)高速、穩(wěn)定、持續(xù)的增長具有重要的理論意義和現(xiàn)實指導(dǎo)意義。 許多學(xué)者對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長問題進(jìn)行了大量的研究，他們用計量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、數(shù)理經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、經(jīng)濟(jì)控制論等方法，建立了各自的理論和模型，希望借助于數(shù)學(xué)工具對經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行定量的描述和研究，以揭示各種因素的作用機理和數(shù)量關(guān)系。 經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)是一個演化著的復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)，本文運用系統(tǒng)科學(xué)的理論和思想，把它作為一類生滅系統(tǒng)，采用定性和定量相結(jié)合的方法對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長問題進(jìn)行研究。 把資本的形成和運轉(zhuǎn)的動態(tài)發(fā)展過程看成一個生滅過程。引進(jìn)雙變量的連續(xù)函數(shù)，既考慮資本與時間的關(guān)系，，又考慮了資本的役齡(有的學(xué)者把它看成一個補充變量，在運籌學(xué)叫做補充變量法)，把資本的存量和消費水平作為經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的狀態(tài)變量，把勞動力函數(shù)和科技進(jìn)步函數(shù)作為外生變量，用積累率控制投資規(guī)模，用控制論的方法建立了宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)分布參數(shù)的數(shù)學(xué)模型。 然后，本文借鑒前人的研究成果，通過不同的生產(chǎn)函數(shù)作為反饋要素，建立了一系列宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的控制模型。一方面形成了資本動態(tài)發(fā)展的閉環(huán)控制系統(tǒng)，可以實現(xiàn)對經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的調(diào)控；另一方面，形成了雙變量的動態(tài)生產(chǎn)函數(shù)，來研究經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的有關(guān)問題。進(jìn)而分別討論了各種模型的解的存在性、唯一性，以及與初始條件和邊界條件的相關(guān)性質(zhì)，為模型進(jìn)一步的研究和計算奠定理論基礎(chǔ)。 最后，對技術(shù)進(jìn)步與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的相互作用進(jìn)行了定性和定量研究，定量的結(jié)果表明：技術(shù)進(jìn)步在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長中的作用呈現(xiàn)出一種穩(wěn)定上升的長期趨勢。這與用C—D生產(chǎn)函數(shù)方法計算結(jié)果基本一致，從理論和實際兩個方面驗證了本文所建立的模型的正確性。可為今后的經(jīng)濟(jì)決策和宏觀調(diào)控提供依據(jù)。 本文的主要創(chuàng)新之處在于： (1)在宏觀層次上將經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)作為演化的復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)，利用系統(tǒng)科學(xué)的思想和方法，將其作為一類生滅系統(tǒng)來研究經(jīng)濟(jì)增長問題。這種思想和方法有別于其它的研究。 (2)建立了用分布參數(shù)描述的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的控制模型。引進(jìn)雙變量的連續(xù)函數(shù)不僅考慮到資本與時間的關(guān)系，而且考慮了其役齡的因素。這比只考慮時間的因素的模型更能細(xì)致地刻畫經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)。分布參數(shù)模型能夠反映出復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)的非線性特性。 (3)本研究用不同的生產(chǎn)函數(shù)作為系統(tǒng)的控制反饋因素，形成一個閉環(huán)控制系統(tǒng)，能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)對經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的調(diào)控，達(dá)到經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定、持續(xù)增長目的。 (4)在證明了連續(xù)型模型解的存在性和唯一性，及與初始條件和邊界條件的相關(guān)性質(zhì)之后，利用其離散化的模型測算經(jīng)濟(jì)增長中技術(shù)進(jìn)步的作用，與采用C—D生產(chǎn)函數(shù)計算的結(jié)果基本一致，充分說明了技術(shù)進(jìn)步在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長中呈現(xiàn)出一種穩(wěn)定上升的長期趨勢。更加清楚地認(rèn)識到技術(shù)進(jìn)步在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長中的長期影響。
[Abstract]:Economic growth is an issue of great concern to the government, the public and economists in contemporary countries. Governments, without exception, regard ensuring economic growth as a macroeconomic indicator when formulating policies. The public generally believe that economic growth is the premise of economic prosperity and the improvement of national welfare, and is the solution to other economic diseases. It is precisely because of the importance of economic growth that more and more people begin to devote their attention to the study of economic growth.
Many scholars have done a lot of research on economic growth. They have established their own theories and models by means of econometrics, mathematical economics and economic cybernetics. They hope to describe and study the economic system quantitatively by means of mathematical tools in order to reveal the mechanism of action and quantitative relationship of various factors.
Economic system is an evolving complex system. In this paper, we use the theory and thought of system science as a kind of birth and death system, and study the problem of economic growth by combining qualitative and quantitative methods.
The dynamic development of capital formation and operation is regarded as a birth-and-death process. The bivariate continuous function is introduced, which considers both the relationship between capital and time and the service life of capital (some scholars regard it as a supplementary variable, called supplementary variable method in operational research), and takes the stock and consumption level of capital as the economic system. The state variable takes the labor force function and the science and technology progress function as exogenous variables, controls the investment scale with the accumulation rate, and establishes the mathematical model of the distribution parameters of the macroeconomic system with the method of cybernetics.
Then, this paper builds a series of control models of macroeconomic system by referring to previous research results and using different production functions as feedback elements. On the one hand, a closed-loop control system of capital dynamic development is formed, which can realize the regulation and control of economic system; on the other hand, a bivariate dynamic production function is formed to study. Furthermore, the existence and uniqueness of the solutions of various models, as well as the related properties with the initial and boundary conditions, are discussed respectively, which lays a theoretical foundation for further study and calculation of the models.
Finally, the interaction between technological progress and economic growth is studied qualitatively and quantitatively. The quantitative results show that the role of technological progress in economic growth presents a long-term trend of steady increase, which is basically consistent with the results calculated by the C-D production function method. The theoretical and practical results verify the proposed model. The correctness of the model can provide a basis for future economic decision-making and macroeconomic regulation and control.
The main innovations of this paper are:
(1) Regarding the economic system as an evolutionary complex system at the macro-level, and using the ideas and methods of system science to study the economic growth as a kind of birth and death system.
(2) The control model of macroeconomic system described by distributed parameters is established. The bivariate continuous function is introduced to consider not only the relationship between capital and time, but also the factors of service life. This model can describe the economic system more carefully than the model which only considers the time factor. Linear characteristics.
(3) In this study, different production functions are used as control feedback factors to form a closed-loop control system, which can control the economic system and achieve economic stability and sustained growth.
(4) After proving the existence and uniqueness of the solution of the continuous model and the related properties with the initial and boundary conditions, the effect of technological progress in economic growth is estimated by using its discrete model, which is basically consistent with the result calculated by using the C-D production function. This fully demonstrates that technological progress presents a phenomenon in economic growth. The long-term trend of steady rise. A clearer understanding of the long-term impact of technological progress on economic growth.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京信息控制研究所
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2003
【分類號】：F062.4;F224
本文編號：2177412
[Abstract]:Economic growth is an issue of great concern to the government, the public and economists in contemporary countries. Governments, without exception, regard ensuring economic growth as a macroeconomic indicator when formulating policies. The public generally believe that economic growth is the premise of economic prosperity and the improvement of national welfare, and is the solution to other economic diseases. It is precisely because of the importance of economic growth that more and more people begin to devote their attention to the study of economic growth.
Many scholars have done a lot of research on economic growth. They have established their own theories and models by means of econometrics, mathematical economics and economic cybernetics. They hope to describe and study the economic system quantitatively by means of mathematical tools in order to reveal the mechanism of action and quantitative relationship of various factors.
Economic system is an evolving complex system. In this paper, we use the theory and thought of system science as a kind of birth and death system, and study the problem of economic growth by combining qualitative and quantitative methods.
The dynamic development of capital formation and operation is regarded as a birth-and-death process. The bivariate continuous function is introduced, which considers both the relationship between capital and time and the service life of capital (some scholars regard it as a supplementary variable, called supplementary variable method in operational research), and takes the stock and consumption level of capital as the economic system. The state variable takes the labor force function and the science and technology progress function as exogenous variables, controls the investment scale with the accumulation rate, and establishes the mathematical model of the distribution parameters of the macroeconomic system with the method of cybernetics.
Then, this paper builds a series of control models of macroeconomic system by referring to previous research results and using different production functions as feedback elements. On the one hand, a closed-loop control system of capital dynamic development is formed, which can realize the regulation and control of economic system; on the other hand, a bivariate dynamic production function is formed to study. Furthermore, the existence and uniqueness of the solutions of various models, as well as the related properties with the initial and boundary conditions, are discussed respectively, which lays a theoretical foundation for further study and calculation of the models.
Finally, the interaction between technological progress and economic growth is studied qualitatively and quantitatively. The quantitative results show that the role of technological progress in economic growth presents a long-term trend of steady increase, which is basically consistent with the results calculated by the C-D production function method. The theoretical and practical results verify the proposed model. The correctness of the model can provide a basis for future economic decision-making and macroeconomic regulation and control.
The main innovations of this paper are:
(1) Regarding the economic system as an evolutionary complex system at the macro-level, and using the ideas and methods of system science to study the economic growth as a kind of birth and death system.
(2) The control model of macroeconomic system described by distributed parameters is established. The bivariate continuous function is introduced to consider not only the relationship between capital and time, but also the factors of service life. This model can describe the economic system more carefully than the model which only considers the time factor. Linear characteristics.
(3) In this study, different production functions are used as control feedback factors to form a closed-loop control system, which can control the economic system and achieve economic stability and sustained growth.
(4) After proving the existence and uniqueness of the solution of the continuous model and the related properties with the initial and boundary conditions, the effect of technological progress in economic growth is estimated by using its discrete model, which is basically consistent with the result calculated by using the C-D production function. This fully demonstrates that technological progress presents a phenomenon in economic growth. The long-term trend of steady rise. A clearer understanding of the long-term impact of technological progress on economic growth.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京信息控制研究所
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2003
【分類號】：F062.4;F224
【引證文獻(xiàn)】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前3條
1 焦紅兵;吳冀徽;;含有時滯資產(chǎn)投資模型的積累率的辨識問題[J];數(shù)學(xué)的實踐與認(rèn)識;2008年23期
2 張紅梅;劉會茹;蔡惠萍;趙建華;;線性經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展系統(tǒng)解的性質(zhì)研究[J];數(shù)學(xué)的實踐與認(rèn)識;2010年23期
3 劉會茹;何俊;張紅梅;李偉才;;一類非線性經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展系統(tǒng)的半離散模型分析[J];商業(yè)時代;2012年15期
相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條
1 闞紅宇;基于Cobb-Douglas生產(chǎn)函數(shù)下宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的最優(yōu)控制[D];哈爾濱師范大學(xué);2011年
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