【摘要】：在信息化高度發(fā)達(dá)的今天，世界已經(jīng)成為一個(gè)有機(jī)的整體。雖然在宗教信仰與政治傾向上國(guó)家與國(guó)家存在明顯界限，但在經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域這種界限已經(jīng)不是十分明顯。在經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的背景下，單個(gè)國(guó)家爆發(fā)的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)或制定經(jīng)濟(jì)政策將可能帶來(lái)世界范圍內(nèi)的影響。例如2007年美國(guó)發(fā)生了嚴(yán)重的次貸危機(jī)，短時(shí)間內(nèi)就形成了波及全球的金融危機(jī)。為了解除危機(jī)、恢復(fù)經(jīng)濟(jì)，美國(guó)、日本、歐盟相繼啟動(dòng)了非常規(guī)的量化寬松貨幣政策。美國(guó)量化寬松貨幣政策已經(jīng)實(shí)施了5年，先后進(jìn)行了4輪。美國(guó)在長(zhǎng)期維持低利率甚至零利率的同時(shí)，通過(guò)購(gòu)買機(jī)構(gòu)債券，長(zhǎng)期國(guó)債等向市場(chǎng)投入大量的貨幣流動(dòng)性用以鼓勵(lì)投資、降低失業(yè)率。時(shí)至今日，量化寬松貨幣政策仍褒貶不一。新任美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席耶倫最近也暗示美國(guó)將在今年年底退出量化寬松貨幣政策，但低利率仍將持續(xù)一段時(shí)間。在這樣的背景下，筆者關(guān)注美國(guó)的量化寬松如何對(duì)我國(guó)的貨幣流動(dòng)性產(chǎn)生影響。 貨幣流動(dòng)性關(guān)系到我們經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的整體結(jié)構(gòu)。套利行為與資本流動(dòng)將會(huì)造成產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)失調(diào)、經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫產(chǎn)生，因此筆者認(rèn)為探討美國(guó)的量化寬松與中國(guó)的貨幣流動(dòng)性之間的關(guān)系是有意義的。本文先以中國(guó)廣義貨幣M2代替中國(guó)的貨幣流動(dòng)性，定性說(shuō)明美國(guó)量化寬松對(duì)中國(guó)的貨幣流動(dòng)性有影響。進(jìn)一步選取中國(guó)廣義貨幣量M2、中美匯率、中國(guó)進(jìn)出口額等為中國(guó)貨幣流動(dòng)性的代理變量，建立向量自回歸模型，進(jìn)行格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)，輔助脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)量分析，結(jié)論顯示美國(guó)量化寬松對(duì)中國(guó)貨幣流動(dòng)性的影響是顯著的。最后筆者提出幾點(diǎn)建議，做好金融監(jiān)管工作，密切注意跨區(qū)套利行為，防止國(guó)際游資、熱錢短期迅速撤離，造成貨幣流動(dòng)性緊張；深化中國(guó)匯率改革，加快人民幣匯率市場(chǎng)化，推進(jìn)人民幣國(guó)際化；調(diào)整金融機(jī)構(gòu)的投資結(jié)構(gòu)、渠道，打壓“影子銀行”等虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)，，加大力度扶持實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)，切實(shí)做好經(jīng)濟(jì)工作的全面深化改革。
[Abstract]:In today's highly developed information technology, the world has become an organic whole. Although there is an obvious boundary between the state and the state in terms of religious belief and political tendency, it is no longer very obvious in the economic field. In the context of economic globalization, the economic crisis or the formulation of economic policies in a single country may have a worldwide impact. For example, in 2007, there was a serious subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, and the global financial crisis was formed in a short period of time. In order to relieve the crisis and restore the economy, the United States, Japan and the European Union have launched unconventional quantitative easing monetary policy one after another. Quantitative easing in the United States has been implemented for five years, followed by four rounds. While the United States maintains low or even zero interest rates for a long time, it invests a lot of monetary liquidity into the market by buying institutional bonds and long-term Treasuries to encourage investment and reduce unemployment. To this day, quantitative easing monetary policy is still mixed. Yellen, the new Fed chairman, recently hinted that the United States would withdraw from quantitative easing by the end of the year, but low interest rates would continue for some time. In this context, the author pays attention to how quantitative easing in the United States has an impact on the monetary liquidity of our country. Monetary liquidity is related to the overall structure of our economic development. Arbitrage behavior and capital flow will lead to the imbalance of industrial structure and the emergence of economic bubble. Therefore, the author believes that it is meaningful to explore the relationship between quantitative easing in the United States and monetary liquidity in China. In this paper, Chinese broad money M2 is used to replace China's monetary liquidity, which qualitatively shows that quantitative easing in the United States has an impact on China's monetary liquidity. Furthermore, the generalized Chinese currency M2, Sino-US exchange rate and Chinese import and export volume are selected as the proxy variables of Chinese monetary liquidity, and the vector autoregression model is established, and the Granger causality test and cointegration test are carried out. The econometric analysis of auxiliary impulse response function shows that quantitative easing in the United States has a significant effect on monetary liquidity in China. Finally, the author puts forward some suggestions, do a good job of financial supervision, pay close attention to cross-regional arbitrage behavior, prevent international hot money, short-term and rapid withdrawal, resulting in tight monetary liquidity; Deepen the reform of China's exchange rate, speed up the marketization of RMB exchange rate, and promote the internationalization of RMB; We will adjust the investment structure and channels of financial institutions, crack down on virtual economies such as "shadow banking", step up efforts to support the real economy, and earnestly deepen the reform of economic work in an all-round way.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F827.12;F822.2

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