利益攸關(guān)方個(gè)體視角下公私合作基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-03-31 13:08
【摘要】：隨著我國現(xiàn)代化進(jìn)程的推進(jìn)，基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目的建設(shè)必將成為關(guān)乎國計(jì)民生的基礎(chǔ)工程。基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目建設(shè)具有投資大、規(guī)模大、周期長等特點(diǎn)，單靠政府的財(cái)政支持不能完全負(fù)擔(dān)，需要私人投資方的資金支持，在此現(xiàn)實(shí)背景下，一種新型的項(xiàng)目合作方式—公私合作模式應(yīng)運(yùn)而生。通過公私合作(PPP)模式，合作方共擔(dān)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，可以達(dá)到比預(yù)期單獨(dú)行動(dòng)更為有利的結(jié)果。本論文將研究視角置于利益攸關(guān)方個(gè)體視角下，針對公私合作基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)進(jìn)行研究，構(gòu)建以“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)理論→風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別→風(fēng)險(xiǎn)初次分擔(dān)→共擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)比例→實(shí)證分析”為主要內(nèi)容的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)機(jī)制，以期達(dá)到PPP項(xiàng)目各利益攸關(guān)方之間在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)的權(quán)力、責(zé)任以及利益上的相互制衡，實(shí)現(xiàn)公私合作基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目的多方共贏。 首先，本論文介紹了公私合作基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)理論，包括公私合作模式、利益攸關(guān)方等概念的界定，PPP模式的特點(diǎn)、影響PPP基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)的因素及其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)的特點(diǎn)等公私合作基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)理念。然后，基于里程碑計(jì)劃對公私合作基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行階段劃分，運(yùn)用德爾菲法確定了初步的36個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)，再結(jié)合主成分分析法去掉19個(gè)“次要的”指標(biāo)，構(gòu)建出本文的公私合作基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)體系。其次，運(yùn)用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)法的基本思想，建立基于灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度分析法的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)模型，將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分為利益攸關(guān)方獨(dú)自承擔(dān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和共同承擔(dān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。對于獨(dú)自承擔(dān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，根據(jù)計(jì)算的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)與利益攸關(guān)方之間關(guān)聯(lián)度的大小來確定各利益攸關(guān)方應(yīng)該承擔(dān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素；在此過程中運(yùn)用粗糙集確定指標(biāo)權(quán)重，使得風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)更具適用性。再次，針對共同承擔(dān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)部分，在充分考慮各利益攸關(guān)方的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好以及合作關(guān)系的基礎(chǔ)上，采用隨機(jī)合作博弈的方法，，確定共擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的分擔(dān)比例，從而實(shí)現(xiàn)項(xiàng)目的整體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最小化。最后，以中國中鐵隧道集團(tuán)為例，實(shí)證分析青島膠州灣隧道項(xiàng)目的公私合作風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)情況。選取該項(xiàng)目的五大利益攸關(guān)方，運(yùn)用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析法對各利益攸關(guān)方單獨(dú)承擔(dān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及共擔(dān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)，然后以合同條款遺漏風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為例，計(jì)算中國中鐵隧道集團(tuán)和青島國信集團(tuán)所應(yīng)承擔(dān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)比例，以此來充實(shí)和驗(yàn)證利益攸關(guān)方個(gè)體視角下公私合作基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)的理論。 本論文通過構(gòu)建公私合作基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)體系、建立灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度分析方法的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)模型、構(gòu)建基于隨機(jī)合作博弈的公私合作基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目共擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)的比例模型，探索了一套比較完善的利益攸關(guān)方個(gè)體視角下公私合作基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)機(jī)制，使得各利益攸關(guān)方對其應(yīng)分擔(dān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)針對性更強(qiáng)，為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制奠定了良好的基礎(chǔ)。
[Abstract]:With the advancement of China's modernization, the construction of infrastructure projects will become the basic projects related to the national economy and people's livelihood. The construction of infrastructure projects has the characteristics of large investment, large scale and long cycle, which cannot be fully borne by the government's financial support alone, and requires the financial support of private investors. Under this realistic background, A new mode of project cooperation-public-private cooperation model emerges as the times require. Through the (PPP) model of public-private partnership, partners can share the project risk and achieve more favorable results than expected by individual action. This paper focuses on the risk-sharing of public-private partnership infrastructure projects from the perspective of individual stakeholders. To construct a risk sharing mechanism based on "risk sharing theory and risk identification" as the main content, in order to achieve the power of risk sharing among stakeholders of PPP project, which is based on the empirical analysis of risk sharing ratio of initial risk sharing and risk sharing ratio of risk sharing in order to achieve the power of risk sharing among various stakeholders of the risk sharing project. Mutual checks and balances of responsibility and interests to achieve multi-win-win public-private partnership in infrastructure projects. Firstly, this paper introduces the theory of public-private partnership infrastructure project risk sharing, including the definition of public-private partnership model, stakeholders and other concepts, and the characteristics of the PPP model. The risk sharing concept of public-private cooperation infrastructure projects such as the factors that affect the risk sharing of PPP infrastructure projects and the characteristics of risk sharing. Then, based on the milestone plan, the public-private partnership infrastructure projects are divided into phases, the Delphi method is used to determine the initial 36 risk indicators, and then the principal component analysis method is used to remove 19 "secondary" indicators. This paper constructs the public-private partnership infrastructure project risk index system. Secondly, the risk sharing model based on grey correlation analysis is established by using the basic idea of grey correlation analysis, and the risk is divided into the risk that the stakeholders bear alone and the risk shared by the stakeholders. For risk borne alone, the risk factors to be borne by stakeholders are determined based on the degree of correlation between the calculated risk indicators and stakeholders; In this process, rough set is used to determine the index weight, which makes the risk index more applicable. Thirdly, on the basis of taking full account of the risk preferences and cooperative relationships of various stakeholders, we adopt the random cooperative game method to determine the proportion of shared risks for the shared risk part. Thus the overall risk of the project is minimized. Finally, taking China Railway Tunnel Group as an example, this paper empirically analyzes the risk sharing of public-private cooperation in Qingdao Jiaozhou Bay Tunnel Project. Selecting the five major stakeholders of the project, using grey relational analysis to share the risks borne by the various stakeholders alone and the shared risks, and then taking the omission of the contract terms as an example, The risk ratio of China Railway Tunnel Group and Qingdao Guoxin Group is calculated to enrich and verify the theory of risk sharing of public-private cooperative infrastructure projects from the perspective of individual stakeholders. This paper constructs the risk index system of public-private cooperation infrastructure project, establishes the risk sharing model of grey correlation analysis method, and constructs the proportional model of public-private cooperation infrastructure project sharing risk sharing based on random cooperative game. This paper explores a set of perfect risk sharing mechanism of public-private cooperative infrastructure projects from the perspective of individual stakeholders, which makes the risk sharing mechanism of public-private cooperation infrastructure projects more targeted and lays a good foundation for risk control.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：青島理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F283
本文編號(hào)：2450928
[Abstract]:With the advancement of China's modernization, the construction of infrastructure projects will become the basic projects related to the national economy and people's livelihood. The construction of infrastructure projects has the characteristics of large investment, large scale and long cycle, which cannot be fully borne by the government's financial support alone, and requires the financial support of private investors. Under this realistic background, A new mode of project cooperation-public-private cooperation model emerges as the times require. Through the (PPP) model of public-private partnership, partners can share the project risk and achieve more favorable results than expected by individual action. This paper focuses on the risk-sharing of public-private partnership infrastructure projects from the perspective of individual stakeholders. To construct a risk sharing mechanism based on "risk sharing theory and risk identification" as the main content, in order to achieve the power of risk sharing among stakeholders of PPP project, which is based on the empirical analysis of risk sharing ratio of initial risk sharing and risk sharing ratio of risk sharing in order to achieve the power of risk sharing among various stakeholders of the risk sharing project. Mutual checks and balances of responsibility and interests to achieve multi-win-win public-private partnership in infrastructure projects. Firstly, this paper introduces the theory of public-private partnership infrastructure project risk sharing, including the definition of public-private partnership model, stakeholders and other concepts, and the characteristics of the PPP model. The risk sharing concept of public-private cooperation infrastructure projects such as the factors that affect the risk sharing of PPP infrastructure projects and the characteristics of risk sharing. Then, based on the milestone plan, the public-private partnership infrastructure projects are divided into phases, the Delphi method is used to determine the initial 36 risk indicators, and then the principal component analysis method is used to remove 19 "secondary" indicators. This paper constructs the public-private partnership infrastructure project risk index system. Secondly, the risk sharing model based on grey correlation analysis is established by using the basic idea of grey correlation analysis, and the risk is divided into the risk that the stakeholders bear alone and the risk shared by the stakeholders. For risk borne alone, the risk factors to be borne by stakeholders are determined based on the degree of correlation between the calculated risk indicators and stakeholders; In this process, rough set is used to determine the index weight, which makes the risk index more applicable. Thirdly, on the basis of taking full account of the risk preferences and cooperative relationships of various stakeholders, we adopt the random cooperative game method to determine the proportion of shared risks for the shared risk part. Thus the overall risk of the project is minimized. Finally, taking China Railway Tunnel Group as an example, this paper empirically analyzes the risk sharing of public-private cooperation in Qingdao Jiaozhou Bay Tunnel Project. Selecting the five major stakeholders of the project, using grey relational analysis to share the risks borne by the various stakeholders alone and the shared risks, and then taking the omission of the contract terms as an example, The risk ratio of China Railway Tunnel Group and Qingdao Guoxin Group is calculated to enrich and verify the theory of risk sharing of public-private cooperative infrastructure projects from the perspective of individual stakeholders. This paper constructs the risk index system of public-private cooperation infrastructure project, establishes the risk sharing model of grey correlation analysis method, and constructs the proportional model of public-private cooperation infrastructure project sharing risk sharing based on random cooperative game. This paper explores a set of perfect risk sharing mechanism of public-private cooperative infrastructure projects from the perspective of individual stakeholders, which makes the risk sharing mechanism of public-private cooperation infrastructure projects more targeted and lays a good foundation for risk control.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：青島理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F283
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