基于Logistic-CA-Markov模型的臨沂市土地利用變化模擬預測研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-02-15 19:05
【摘要】：土地利用／覆被變化(LUCC)是研究全球環(huán)境變化的重要切入點,反映出人與自然最直接的相互作用關系,是當前學術界研究的熱點之一。土地利用／覆被變化過程紛繁復雜,構建簡化和抽象的土地利用模型必不可少,模型的構建對于理解土地利用變化的過程、機制以及未來變化趨勢具有不可替代的作用。結合以往以及未來土地利用空間格局變化特征、規(guī)律和趨勢進行研究,可以更好地理解土地利用變化的過程和機制,以此可以為土地管理部門及時調整土地政策提供科學依據,從而促使土地利用更趨合理,達到土地資源可持續(xù)利用的目的。隨著社會經濟的發(fā)展,我國各地區(qū)面臨著不同程度的人口、資源和環(huán)境問題,而東部地區(qū)尤為嚴峻,因此,進行LUCC研究有著重要的現實意義,同時也可以為土地政策實施的有效性、連續(xù)性和針對性提供一定的參考依據。 本文以臨沂市為研究區(qū),首先對臨沂市遙感影像進行解譯,得到2000年、2005年和2010年三個時期的土地利用分類數據；然后通過轉移矩陣、土地利用程度、空間重心遷移模型等分析了臨沂市過去2000-2010年10年間土地利用空間格局變化特征和演變規(guī)律；接著結合研究區(qū)社會經濟數據,選取自然、社會經濟以及可達性等方面的土地利用影響因素,利用Logistic回歸模型分析了土地利用變化的主要驅動力和土地利用的適宜性,生成適宜性圖集,以此作為后續(xù)CA-Markov模型中CA轉換規(guī)則之一；在此基礎上,利用CA-Markov模型分別在自然發(fā)展模式和可持續(xù)發(fā)展模式下對研究區(qū)2015年和2020年的土地利用格局進行模擬預測,最后對結果進行了檢驗和分析。本文的研究結果表明： (1)2000-2010年10年間臨沂市土地利用數量結構呈現此消彼長,分布失衡的趨勢,一方面是耕地、林地、草地和水域不同程度的減少,其中耕地減少量最多,達到7.98×104hm2,水域減少量最小,只有1753hm2；另一方面是建設用地面積迅猛增加,10年間增加了9.84×104hm2。另外,對建設用地建立空間重心遷移模型,結果顯示建設用地呈現明顯的空間集聚和分散特征。 (2)根據Logistic回歸模型結果的回歸系數β和exp(β)來探究土地利用變化的驅動力,可以看出不同地類的影響因素并不是孤立存在的,而是緊密聯系的,其中：自然因素中的高程和坡度是土地利用變化的先天基礎性條件；人口和經濟等驅動力對自然環(huán)境也有反作用；可達性方面的交通因素對土地利用形態(tài)的演化起到了很強的引導作用。 (3)不同尺度下,Logistic回歸模型的擬合優(yōu)度存在差異,選取100×100m、200×200m、300×300m、500×500m、800×800m、1000×1000m共6種模擬尺度,經過對比ROC曲線下面積,得出研究區(qū)進行土地利用空間格局變化模擬的最佳尺度是200x200m,并且以此作為下一步數據處理的基礎。(4)Logistic回歸方程經過變形,得到每個柵格單元土地利用類型概率,其代表著-個柵格的土地開發(fā)適宜性,用地圖代數的方法生成土地利用適宜性圖,進而組成適宜性圖集,以此作為后續(xù)CA-Markov模型中CA轉換規(guī)則之一,該方法消除了MCE方法中對選取的因子設定權重的人為因素影響,更具有客觀性。 (5)利用CA-Markov模型分兩種土地利用情景即自然發(fā)展模式和可持續(xù)發(fā)展模式對土地利用變化進行模擬預測,結果顯示：自然發(fā)展模式下,臨沂市建設用地仍保持較快增長態(tài)勢,按這樣的模式發(fā)展下去,人地矛盾將會愈演愈烈,保護耕地目標難以實現,給生態(tài)環(huán)境和社會經濟發(fā)展造成了嚴峻的挑戰(zhàn)；可持續(xù)發(fā)展模式下,由于政策的影響,建設用地面積增長放緩,耕地面積止降回升,從總體預測上看,如果政策能夠落實,執(zhí)行得力,土地利用結構將會趨于穩(wěn)定,實現規(guī)劃既定的目標。
[Abstract]:LUCC is an important cut-in point for the study of global environmental change, which reflects the most direct interaction relationship between man and nature, and is one of the hot spots in the research of the current academic circles. It is necessary to construct a simplified and abstract land-use model, which is indispensable for understanding the process, mechanism and future trend of land-use change. By studying the characteristics, laws and trends of land-use change in the past and in the future, the process and mechanism of land-use change can be better understood, so that the land management department can adjust the land policy in time to provide scientific basis, so that the land use is more reasonable, and the purpose of sustainable utilization of land resources is achieved. With the development of the social economy, the various regions of our country face different levels of population, resources and environment, and the eastern part is particularly severe. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to carry out the LUCC study, and can also be the effectiveness of the land policy implementation. Continuity and pertinence provide a certain reference basis. This paper, based on Linyi City as the research area, firstly interprets the remote sensing image of Linyi city, and obtains the land use classification data of the three periods of 2000, 2005 and 2010; and then, through the transfer matrix, the land use course In this paper, the characteristics and evolution of land-use spatial pattern in Linyi City in the past 2000-2010 were analyzed, and the effects of land-use in the areas of nature, social economy and accessibility were selected in the light of the social and economic data of the study area. In this paper, a logistic regression model is used to analyze the main driving force of land-use change and the suitability of land-use, and the appropriate atlas is generated as one of the CA transformation rules in the subsequent CA-Markov model. Based on the model of natural development and sustainable development, the land-use pattern of the research area in 2015 and 2020 is simulated and predicted by the CA-Markov model, and the results are tested and divided. An analysis of the results of the study. (1) In the period 2000-2010, the number of land use in Linfen City in the period 2000-2010 shows the trend of the long-term and uneven distribution, on the one hand it is the decrease of the different degree of the cultivated land, the forest land, the grassland and the water area, in which the amount of cultivated land is the most, reaching 7.98-104hm2, and the water area is reduced. The minimum amount of construction land is 1753hm2; on the other hand, the area of construction land is increasing rapidly, and the increase of 9.84-104 in 10 years In addition, the space-of-gravity migration model for the construction land is established, and the result shows that the construction land has obvious spatial agglomeration and distribution (2) Based on the regression coefficient of Logistic regression model and exp (2), the driving force of land-use change is explored. It can be seen that the influence factors of different land types are not isolated, but they are closely related. In the system, the elevation and slope in the natural factors are the basic conditions of land use change; the driving forces such as population and economy have a reaction to the natural environment; the traffic factors in accessibility play a strong role in the evolution of land-use form (3) In different scales, the fit of Logistic regression model is different, and a total of 6 analog scales of 100-100 m, 200-200m, 300-300m, 500-500m, 800-800m and 1000-1000m are selected. Under the OC curve, the optimal scale for land-use spatial pattern change simulation in the study area is 200x200m, and this is taken as the next step and (4) the Logistic regression equation is deformed to obtain the land-use type probability of each grid unit, which represents the land development suitability of the-grid, and the land-use suitability map is generated by the method of the map algebra, As one of the CA transformation rules in the subsequent CA-Markov model, this method eliminates the human factors influence on the selected factor setting weight in the MCE method. (5) Using the CA-Markov model, two land-use scenarios, namely, the natural development model and the sustainable development model, are used to simulate the land-use change. The results show that in the natural development mode, the construction land in Linyi city is still growing rapidly, and the result shows that With the development of such a pattern, the contradiction between man and land will become more and more intense, the goal of protecting the cultivated land is hard to realize, and the severe challenge is caused to the development of the ecological environment and the social and economic development. In the sustainable development mode, the area of construction land is slowing and the cultivated area is not reduced due to the influence of the policy. in that general forecast, if the policy can be implement and implemented, the land-use structure will be stable,
【學位授予單位】：南京大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F301;F224
[Abstract]:LUCC is an important cut-in point for the study of global environmental change, which reflects the most direct interaction relationship between man and nature, and is one of the hot spots in the research of the current academic circles. It is necessary to construct a simplified and abstract land-use model, which is indispensable for understanding the process, mechanism and future trend of land-use change. By studying the characteristics, laws and trends of land-use change in the past and in the future, the process and mechanism of land-use change can be better understood, so that the land management department can adjust the land policy in time to provide scientific basis, so that the land use is more reasonable, and the purpose of sustainable utilization of land resources is achieved. With the development of the social economy, the various regions of our country face different levels of population, resources and environment, and the eastern part is particularly severe. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to carry out the LUCC study, and can also be the effectiveness of the land policy implementation. Continuity and pertinence provide a certain reference basis. This paper, based on Linyi City as the research area, firstly interprets the remote sensing image of Linyi city, and obtains the land use classification data of the three periods of 2000, 2005 and 2010; and then, through the transfer matrix, the land use course In this paper, the characteristics and evolution of land-use spatial pattern in Linyi City in the past 2000-2010 were analyzed, and the effects of land-use in the areas of nature, social economy and accessibility were selected in the light of the social and economic data of the study area. In this paper, a logistic regression model is used to analyze the main driving force of land-use change and the suitability of land-use, and the appropriate atlas is generated as one of the CA transformation rules in the subsequent CA-Markov model. Based on the model of natural development and sustainable development, the land-use pattern of the research area in 2015 and 2020 is simulated and predicted by the CA-Markov model, and the results are tested and divided. An analysis of the results of the study. (1) In the period 2000-2010, the number of land use in Linfen City in the period 2000-2010 shows the trend of the long-term and uneven distribution, on the one hand it is the decrease of the different degree of the cultivated land, the forest land, the grassland and the water area, in which the amount of cultivated land is the most, reaching 7.98-104hm2, and the water area is reduced. The minimum amount of construction land is 1753hm2; on the other hand, the area of construction land is increasing rapidly, and the increase of 9.84-104 in 10 years In addition, the space-of-gravity migration model for the construction land is established, and the result shows that the construction land has obvious spatial agglomeration and distribution (2) Based on the regression coefficient of Logistic regression model and exp (2), the driving force of land-use change is explored. It can be seen that the influence factors of different land types are not isolated, but they are closely related. In the system, the elevation and slope in the natural factors are the basic conditions of land use change; the driving forces such as population and economy have a reaction to the natural environment; the traffic factors in accessibility play a strong role in the evolution of land-use form (3) In different scales, the fit of Logistic regression model is different, and a total of 6 analog scales of 100-100 m, 200-200m, 300-300m, 500-500m, 800-800m and 1000-1000m are selected. Under the OC curve, the optimal scale for land-use spatial pattern change simulation in the study area is 200x200m, and this is taken as the next step and (4) the Logistic regression equation is deformed to obtain the land-use type probability of each grid unit, which represents the land development suitability of the-grid, and the land-use suitability map is generated by the method of the map algebra, As one of the CA transformation rules in the subsequent CA-Markov model, this method eliminates the human factors influence on the selected factor setting weight in the MCE method. (5) Using the CA-Markov model, two land-use scenarios, namely, the natural development model and the sustainable development model, are used to simulate the land-use change. The results show that in the natural development mode, the construction land in Linyi city is still growing rapidly, and the result shows that With the development of such a pattern, the contradiction between man and land will become more and more intense, the goal of protecting the cultivated land is hard to realize, and the severe challenge is caused to the development of the ecological environment and the social and economic development. In the sustainable development mode, the area of construction land is slowing and the cultivated area is not reduced due to the influence of the policy. in that general forecast, if the policy can be implement and implemented, the land-use structure will be stable,
【學位授予單位】：南京大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F301;F224
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