【摘要】：企業(yè)是國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的微觀基礎(chǔ),上市公司作為公眾企業(yè),一直是各界關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。而反映上市公司的財(cái)務(wù)狀況、經(jīng)營成果和現(xiàn)金流量的會(huì)計(jì)信息更是最受社會(huì)關(guān)注的信息之一。會(huì)計(jì)信息不僅是企業(yè)管理者、外部投資者、債權(quán)人、稅務(wù)機(jī)關(guān)等利益相關(guān)者進(jìn)行經(jīng)營管理決策、投資或監(jiān)管的重要依據(jù),而且是一種揭示經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和社會(huì)進(jìn)步的基礎(chǔ)性信息,具有服務(wù)于宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)管理的巨大潛力。如何利用會(huì)計(jì)信息服務(wù)于宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)管理,值得探討。 本文借鑒宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)景氣指數(shù)的編制方法,在會(huì)計(jì)指數(shù)研究成果基礎(chǔ)之上,構(gòu)建基于企業(yè)會(huì)計(jì)信息的先行指數(shù),并對(duì)基于會(huì)計(jì)信息的先行指數(shù)與采用統(tǒng)計(jì)方法編制的景氣指數(shù)的相關(guān)性進(jìn)行探討。本文的研究,是一種拓展會(huì)計(jì)信息用途、提高會(huì)計(jì)信息利用價(jià)值的嘗試,是會(huì)計(jì)指數(shù)理論研究的發(fā)展和創(chuàng)新。 選取全部A股上市公司2007-2012年共24個(gè)季度的主要財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo),首先通過取樣本中位數(shù)、指標(biāo)正向化、季節(jié)調(diào)整和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化等方法對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行預(yù)處理,然后采用時(shí)差相關(guān)分析法、聚類分析法等方法確定先行指標(biāo),采用采用主成分分析法確定指標(biāo)權(quán)重,分別編制每一家公司的先行指數(shù)(ELI)、行業(yè)先行指數(shù)(ILI)和全部企業(yè)先行總指數(shù)(WELI)。最后,計(jì)算全部企業(yè)先行總指數(shù)(WELI)與國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值季度指數(shù)(GDPI)、國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局企業(yè)調(diào)查隊(duì)編制的企業(yè)景氣指數(shù)(SEPI)的相關(guān)系數(shù)及其顯著性。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),WELI與GDPI的相關(guān)系數(shù)為0.534,在0.05水平上顯著,而且兩者的走勢十分相似：WELI與SEPI相關(guān)系數(shù)達(dá)到0.689,在0.01水平上顯著,而且兩者的走勢也極為相似。本文的研究發(fā)現(xiàn),為會(huì)計(jì)信息在宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)監(jiān)測和預(yù)警中的作用提供了經(jīng)驗(yàn)證據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Enterprises are the micro-foundation of national economy, listed companies as public enterprises, has been the focus of attention. Accounting information, which reflects the financial situation, operating results and cash flow of listed companies, is one of the most concerned information. Accounting information is not only an important basis for enterprise managers, external investors, creditors, tax authorities and other stakeholders to make management decisions, investment or supervision, but also a basic information to reveal economic development and social progress. It has great potential to serve macroeconomic management. How to use accounting information to serve macroeconomic management is worth discussing. This paper draws lessons from the compilation method of macroeconomic boom index and constructs the leading index based on enterprise accounting information on the basis of the research results of accounting index. The correlation between the leading index based on accounting information and the prosperity index compiled by statistical method is discussed. The research of this paper is an attempt to expand the use of accounting information and improve the value of accounting information utilization. It is also the development and innovation of the theoretical study of accounting index. The main financial indexes of all A-share listed companies for 24 quarters from 2007 to 2012 were selected. Firstly, the financial indexes were pretreated by sampling median, positive index, seasonal adjustment and standardization, and then time difference correlation analysis was used. Cluster analysis and other methods are used to determine the leading index, and the principal component analysis method is used to determine the index weight. The industry leading index (ILI) of each company and the total leading index (WELI).) of all enterprises are compiled respectively. Finally, the correlation coefficient and significance of the enterprise boom index (SEPI) compiled by the enterprise survey team of the National Bureau of Statistics and the quarterly index of gross domestic product (GDPI),) are calculated. The results show that the correlation coefficient between WELI and GDPI is 0.534, which is significant at 0.05 level, and the correlation coefficient between WELI and SEPI is very similar. The correlation coefficient between WELI and SEPI is 0.689, and the trend of both is very similar. The findings of this paper provide empirical evidence for the role of accounting information in macroeconomic monitoring and early warning.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F275;F224

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