【摘要】：兩岸金融是兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要組成部分,兩岸金融合作能有效促進(jìn)兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。隨著《海峽兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)合作框架協(xié)議》(ECFA)、《海峽兩岸金融監(jiān)管合作諒解備忘錄》(MOU)等基礎(chǔ)性框架協(xié)議的簽訂,兩岸金融合作迎來了空前的發(fā)展機(jī)遇。但是,一些制度、結(jié)構(gòu)上的問題逐漸暴露出來,兩岸金融機(jī)構(gòu)單向不對(duì)稱、金融合作信息不對(duì)稱、金融制度開放不對(duì)稱等問題嚴(yán)重制約著兩岸金融合作的發(fā)展。 本文利用主成分分析提取出一個(gè)變量來代表兩岸金融合作,并利用2012年1月-2013年12月代表兩岸金融、貿(mào)易、投資的月度數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行VAR分析,結(jié)果顯示：(1)根據(jù)Johansen檢驗(yàn)的結(jié)果,兩岸金融與兩岸貿(mào)易、投資之間存在長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的相互影響和作用關(guān)系；(2)根據(jù)脈沖響應(yīng)分析的結(jié)果,兩岸金融、貿(mào)易、投資的發(fā)展對(duì)兩岸金融合作的發(fā)展存在微弱的短期影響；(3)根據(jù)方差分解的結(jié)果,兩岸金融合作的發(fā)展主要取決于兩岸金融自身的發(fā)展,兩岸貿(mào)易、投資對(duì)其影響微乎其微；(4)根據(jù)Granger檢驗(yàn)的結(jié)果,兩岸金融合作的發(fā)展與兩岸貿(mào)易、投資之間尚不足以產(chǎn)生統(tǒng)計(jì)上的因果關(guān)系。 這一結(jié)論符合理論假設(shè)和預(yù)期,同時(shí)也反映了兩岸金融合作的客觀現(xiàn)狀：目前,兩岸金融合作的發(fā)展程度還很低,兩岸金融與兩岸貿(mào)易、投資之間本應(yīng)存在的相互影響渠道還沒有完全建立,處于較低發(fā)展階段的兩岸金融合作尚不足以和兩岸貿(mào)易、投資產(chǎn)生有效的交互影響,這種現(xiàn)狀無(wú)疑弱化了兩岸金融合作對(duì)兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)的促進(jìn)作用。這意味著兩岸金融合作應(yīng)該發(fā)揮的作用還沒有完全發(fā)揮出來,也意味著未來兩岸金融合作的發(fā)展還具有很大的潛力。因此,兩岸應(yīng)該在ECFA、 MOU等基礎(chǔ)性協(xié)議的框架內(nèi)不斷深化兩岸金融合作,從金融業(yè)務(wù)、金融監(jiān)管、貨幣政策等方面著手推動(dòng)兩岸金融合作的進(jìn)一步發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Cross-strait finance is an important part of cross-strait economy, and cross-strait financial cooperation can effectively promote the development of cross-strait economy. With the signing of basic framework agreements such as the Framework Agreement on Economic Cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait (ECFA) and the Memorandum of understanding on Financial Supervision Cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait (MOU), cross-strait financial cooperation has ushered in unprecedented opportunities for development. However, some institutional and structural problems are gradually exposed, such as one-way asymmetry of cross-strait financial institutions, asymmetric information of financial cooperation, asymmetric opening of financial system, and so on, which seriously restrict the development of cross-strait financial cooperation. This paper uses principal component analysis to extract a variable to represent cross-strait financial cooperation, and carries out VAR analysis using monthly data representing cross-strait finance, trade and investment from January 2012 to December 2013. The results show that: (1) according to the results of Johansen test, The relationship between cross-strait finance and cross-strait trade and investment has a long-term and stable interaction. (2) according to the results of impulse response analysis, the development of cross-strait finance, trade and investment has a weak short-term impact on the development of cross-strait financial cooperation. (3) according to the result of variance decomposition, the development of cross-strait financial cooperation mainly depends on the development of cross-strait finance itself, and cross-strait trade and investment have little influence on it; (4) according to the results of Granger test, the development of cross-strait financial cooperation and cross-strait trade, Investment is not yet sufficient to produce a statistical causal relationship. This conclusion accords with theoretical assumptions and expectations, and also reflects the objective situation of cross-strait financial cooperation: at present, the level of development of cross-strait financial cooperation is still very low, and cross-strait finance and cross-strait trade, The channels of interaction that should have existed between investments have not yet been fully established, and cross-strait financial cooperation, which is at a relatively low stage of development, is not enough to interact with cross-strait trade, and investment has an effective interactive impact. This situation undoubtedly weakens the promotion function of cross-straits financial cooperation to cross-straits economy. This means that the role that cross-strait financial cooperation should play has not been fully brought into play, and it also means that the development of cross-strait financial cooperation still has great potential in the future. Therefore, the two sides should deepen cross-strait financial cooperation within the framework of ECFA, MOU and other basic agreements, and start to promote the further development of cross-strait financial cooperation in the aspects of financial business, financial supervision and monetary policy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廈門大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.7;F224

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 黃梅波;陳冰林;;福建自貿(mào)試驗(yàn)區(qū)成立下兩岸金融合作的探討和展望[J];東南學(xué)術(shù);2015年05期

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本文編號(hào)：2134834