本文選題：農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)函數(shù) + ARIMA模型�。� 參考：《統(tǒng)計與決策》2015年15期

【摘要】：文章根據(jù)中國農(nóng)業(yè)1978~2013年的投入產(chǎn)出數(shù)據(jù),首先把建立了農(nóng)業(yè)增加值的對數(shù)ARIMA(1,1,0)時序模型。構(gòu)造農(nóng)業(yè)增加值關(guān)于勞動投入、機械總動力、化肥施用量、有效灌溉面積、農(nóng)作物總播種面積之間的Cobb-Douglas函數(shù)(即多元對數(shù)線性回歸),逐步回歸分析,得到農(nóng)業(yè)增加值與勞動投入負相關(guān)與化肥施用量的正相關(guān),回歸方程表明了農(nóng)業(yè)科技的重要性和人力因素的次要性。然后,利用2013年31地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)要素,提取出農(nóng)業(yè)人力財政投入因子和非人力財政投入因子進行定量綜合評價。最后,由非參檢驗中的位置檢驗、中位數(shù)檢驗得到2013年我國西部與東部農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)出存在顯著性差異的結(jié)論。
[Abstract]:Based on the input-output data of Chinese agriculture from 1978 to 2013, the logarithmic Arima (1 ~ 1 ~ 0) time series model of agricultural added value is first established in this paper. The Cobb-Douglas function (i.e. multiple logarithmic linear regression) between agricultural added value on labor input, total power of machinery, amount of fertilizer application, effective irrigation area and total planting area of crops was constructed, and stepwise regression analysis was made. The positive correlation between agricultural added value and labor input was obtained. The regression equation showed the importance of agricultural science and technology and the secondary importance of human factors. Then, the factors of agricultural production in 2013 31 are used to extract the factors of agricultural manpower financial input and non-human financial input for quantitative comprehensive evaluation. Finally, by the position test of non-parametric test and median test, we can conclude that there is a significant difference in agricultural output between western and eastern China in 2013.
【作者單位】： 華中師范大學(xué)數(shù)學(xué)與統(tǒng)計學(xué)學(xué)院;
【基金】：湖北省統(tǒng)計科研計劃項目重點項目(HB131-28)
【分類號】：F323;F223

【共引文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

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4 孫江;，

本文編號：2071251