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  本文選題：不確定性 + 拓展邊際��； 參考：《湘潭大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：中國作為經(jīng)濟大國，近年來的出口貿(mào)易總額高速增長引起全球關(guān)注，同時2008年的經(jīng)濟危機暴露了中國出口貿(mào)易增長的脆弱性。貿(mào)易的二元邊際是在新新貿(mào)易理論的框架下發(fā)展起來的概念，將出口貿(mào)易分解為拓展邊際和集約邊際有利于理解貿(mào)易增長機制以及貿(mào)易增長帶來的福利效應(yīng)。 根據(jù)企業(yè)異質(zhì)性理論，企業(yè)在出口過程中會面臨一個沉沒的固定成本和一個可變成本，而企業(yè)進入出口市場的條件是企業(yè)所產(chǎn)生的可變利潤能夠彌補其進入出口市場的固定成本。該條件意味著企業(yè)進入出口市場需要達到一個生產(chǎn)率的門檻值。因此，企業(yè)在面臨不確定的市場時，其面臨的可變貿(mào)易成本較小，所以我們直觀推斷會有更多的企業(yè)進入該市場，從而導(dǎo)致該市場企業(yè)的拓展邊際較大。本文借鑒陳勇兵等（2012）多產(chǎn)品情況下拓展的引力模型，建立了與直觀推斷一致的理論模型。本文在此理論模型的基礎(chǔ)上，以2000-2006年中國海關(guān)總署企業(yè)層面進出口數(shù)據(jù)（CLFTTD）和Polity IV (Marshall and Jaggers,2004)中的綜合政治體制指數(shù)等數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)，從不確定性的角度研究中國出口企業(yè)出口貿(mào)易的二元邊際。以出口目的國的綜合政治體制指數(shù)衡量各國出口市場的不確定性。實證分析結(jié)果表明出口市場不確定性越大，中國企業(yè)在出口過程中所面臨的可變貿(mào)易成本將越大，在這種情況下出口總量的變化將表現(xiàn)在集約邊際和拓展邊際上。我們使用Probit模型分析了出口市場不確定性對企業(yè)在出口市場是否能持續(xù)的影響，通過不同年份的回歸對實證結(jié)果做了穩(wěn)健性檢驗。Probit回歸系數(shù)為正，且結(jié)果顯著，我們可以得到以下結(jié)論：綜合政治指數(shù)對企業(yè)出口關(guān)系的持續(xù)有正的影響。并利用經(jīng)典的OLS回歸檢驗了不確定性對出口拓展邊際的影響。通過2006年中國出口企業(yè)對其他國家出口量增長的分解，將其分解成為集約邊際增長和拓展邊際增長，，并計算兩個邊際額增長對出口總量增長的貢獻率可以得到以下結(jié)論：綜合政治體制指數(shù)越大的國家，表明企業(yè)對該國出口所面臨的不確定性越小，其出口拓展邊際的增長對貿(mào)易增長的貢獻率越大。
[Abstract]:As an economic power, the rapid growth of China's export trade in recent years has aroused global concern, and the economic crisis in 2008 exposed the fragility of China's export trade growth. The dual marginal of trade is a concept developed under the framework of new and new trade theory. It is beneficial to understand the mechanism of trade growth and the welfare effect brought by trade growth by dividing export trade into expanding margin and intensive marginal. According to the theory of enterprise heterogeneity, enterprises will face a sunk fixed cost and a variable cost in the export process. And the condition that the enterprise enters the export market is that the variable profit generated by the enterprise can compensate for the fixed cost of entering the export market. This condition means that firms entering the export market need to reach a productivity threshold. Therefore, in the face of uncertain market, the variable trade cost is small, so we intuitively infer that more enterprises will enter the market, thus leading to a larger margin of expansion of the market. Based on the gravitational model developed by Chen Yongbing et al. (2012), a theoretical model consistent with intuitionistic inference is established. On the basis of this theoretical model, this paper bases on the data of China Customs Administration's import and export data at the enterprise level from 2000 to 2006 (CLFTTD) and Polity IV Marshall and Jaggers2004). This paper studies the dualistic margin of export trade of Chinese export enterprises from the angle of uncertainty. The uncertainty of export markets is measured by the comprehensive political system index of destination countries. The empirical results show that the greater the uncertainty of the export market, the greater the variable trade cost faced by Chinese enterprises in the export process. In this case, the change of the total export volume will be manifested in the intensive margin and the expansion margin. We use the Probit model to analyze the impact of uncertainty in export market on the sustainability of enterprises in export market. Through the regression of different years, we make a robust test of the empirical results. The probit regression coefficient is positive, and the results are significant. We can draw the following conclusion: the composite political index has a positive impact on the export relationship of enterprises. The influence of uncertainty on export expansion margin is tested by classical OLS regression. Through the decomposition of export volume growth of other countries by Chinese export enterprises in 2006, it can be divided into intensive marginal growth and expanding marginal growth. By calculating the contribution rate of the two marginal growth to the total export growth, we can draw the following conclusion: the larger the comprehensive political system index, the less uncertainty enterprises face to the export. The greater the contribution of the marginal growth of export expansion to the growth of trade.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湘潭大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F752.62;F224

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本文編號：1945332