發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-24 22:39

  本文選題：經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展 + 環(huán)境壓力��； 參考：《南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：自從世界進(jìn)入到工業(yè)社會以來,能源就與我們的生活息息相關(guān)密不可分,貫穿整個(gè)社會的方方面面,而經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長更是必定要依賴能源這一重要資源。由于技術(shù)的限制,當(dāng)前使用的能源依然是化石燃料為主,非化石燃料僅僅只占有很小的一部分能源供給�；剂系氖褂媒o世界環(huán)境帶來了巨大的壓力：環(huán)境污染、溫室氣體、全球變暖等等。同時(shí)由于化石燃料短期內(nèi)的不可再生性,不能支撐經(jīng)濟(jì)社會的無限發(fā)展,因此人們越來越關(guān)注能源利用的高效率,使能源利用成為可持續(xù)發(fā)展的一部分,研究經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與能源消耗的關(guān)系是其中很重要的一部分。“脫鉤”概念始一提出就得到了理論界極大的注意�！懊撱^”由西方學(xué)者提出,表示的是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長不再高度依賴能源消耗的增加的一種狀態(tài)。作為探討兩個(gè)變量關(guān)系的研究方法,為經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與環(huán)境壓力的關(guān)系的處理提供了一種重要的研究方法。中國進(jìn)入工業(yè)社會時(shí)間較晚,目前仍基本上處于粗放型經(jīng)濟(jì)增長社會,即經(jīng)濟(jì)增長比較依賴于第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展,也就是說我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長對能源資源的消耗依賴性較大。而為了可持續(xù)發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo),研究我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與能源消耗的脫鉤關(guān)系以及發(fā)展方向具有現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文通過分析發(fā)現(xiàn)中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長進(jìn)程中根據(jù)增長速度的變化可以分為四個(gè)階段,對這四個(gè)時(shí)期中經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與能源消費(fèi)關(guān)系進(jìn)行灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度分析得出了在各個(gè)階段時(shí)二者的關(guān)系動(dòng)態(tài)變化特征以及三次產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值增長與能源消費(fèi)之間的動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系變化。進(jìn)一步使用三元需求模型和三元產(chǎn)出模型分別把能源價(jià)格和勞動(dòng)力總量引入經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與能源消費(fèi)之間的關(guān)系,觀察其對二者關(guān)系的影響。本文的行文結(jié)構(gòu)如下：第一章為緒論綜述,主要介紹了國內(nèi)外關(guān)于脫鉤的理論研究現(xiàn)狀。第二章介紹中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的階段劃分以及分產(chǎn)業(yè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展情況。第三章介紹我國能源消費(fèi)的時(shí)間序列變量,并對具體的能源如煤炭、石油、天然氣以及電力的使用情況進(jìn)行初步分析。第四章使用三元需求模型和三元產(chǎn)出模型對多變量影響下的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與能源消費(fèi)關(guān)系進(jìn)行分析。第五章利用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度分析方法對分階段的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與能源消費(fèi)之間的灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度進(jìn)行分析,觀察二者的關(guān)系動(dòng)態(tài)變化。并進(jìn)一步的分析經(jīng)濟(jì)因素中具體指標(biāo)對能源消費(fèi)的推動(dòng)作用。第六章是根據(jù)上文分析結(jié)果對我國能源與經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展提出相應(yīng)的理論建議。
[Abstract]:Since the world entered into the industrial society, energy is closely related to our life and runs through all aspects of the society, and economic growth must rely on energy as an important resource. Due to the limitation of technology, the current use of energy is still mainly fossil fuels, non-fossil fuels only account for a very small portion of the energy supply. The use of fossil fuels has put great pressure on the world environment: environmental pollution, greenhouse gases, global warming and so on. At the same time, because fossil fuels are not renewable in the short term and cannot support the unlimited development of economy and society, people pay more and more attention to the high efficiency of energy utilization, which makes energy utilization become a part of sustainable development. Research on the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption is an important part of it. As soon as the concept of "decoupling" was put forward, great attention was paid to it. Decoupling, proposed by Western scholars, represents a state in which economic growth is no longer highly dependent on an increase in energy consumption. As a research method to study the relationship between two variables, it provides an important research method for dealing with the relationship between economic development and environmental pressure. China is still in the extensive economic growth society, that is, economic growth depends on the development of the secondary industry, that is to say, the economic growth of our country is more dependent on the consumption of energy and resources. In order to achieve the strategic goal of sustainable development, it is of practical significance to study the decoupling relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in China. This paper finds that the process of China's economic growth can be divided into four stages according to the change of growth rate. The relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in these four periods is analyzed by grey relational degree. The dynamic characteristics of the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in each stage and the dynamic relationship between the growth of output value of three industries and energy consumption are obtained. Furthermore, the ternary demand model and the ternary output model are used to introduce the energy price and total labor force into the relationship between economic development and energy consumption, and to observe their influence on the relationship between them. The structure of this paper is as follows: the first chapter is an introduction, mainly introduces the current situation of theoretical research on decoupling at home and abroad. The second chapter introduces the stage division of China's economic development and the economic development by industry. The third chapter introduces the time series variables of energy consumption in China, and makes a preliminary analysis on the use of specific energy sources such as coal, oil, natural gas and electricity. The fourth chapter analyzes the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption under the influence of multivariable by using ternary demand model and ternary output model. In the fifth chapter, the grey correlation degree between economic growth and energy consumption is analyzed by using the method of grey correlation analysis, and the dynamic changes of the relationship between the two are observed. And further analysis of economic factors in the specific indicators of energy consumption. The sixth chapter is based on the results of the above analysis of energy and economic development in China to put forward the corresponding theoretical recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F124.1;F206

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