發(fā)布時間：2018-05-09 13:12

  本文選題：物流 + 需求　； 參考：《蘇州大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著顧客需求的多樣化、企業(yè)競爭的激烈、全球制造概念的發(fā)展，精益生產(chǎn)在制造企業(yè)各個領(lǐng)域不斷的推行，精益思想在制造企業(yè)已經(jīng)深入人心。物流作為整個制造過程中重要的一環(huán)，同時物流已經(jīng)成為世界公認(rèn)的“第三利潤源泉”。各企業(yè)都在希望通過精細(xì)化，量化管理來提高企業(yè)物流管理的水平，降低企業(yè)在物流流通中的成本。各企業(yè)一直在尋求解決基于承載物品的載體的物流需求量預(yù)測的不平衡和不確定性的問題的方案。因此，本文通過對物流需求預(yù)測的研究，同時通過在M公司的應(yīng)用，建立了物流需求預(yù)測模型，驗(yàn)證物流需求預(yù)測模型并對模型進(jìn)行了進(jìn)一步的優(yōu)化。 本文以物流需求預(yù)測的理論和研究現(xiàn)狀為基礎(chǔ)，研究物流需求預(yù)測及結(jié)合實(shí)際在企業(yè)中的應(yīng)用。首先，在閱讀和分析了國內(nèi)外物流需求預(yù)測的相關(guān)研究及相關(guān)背景的基礎(chǔ)上明確了本文的研究問題、目的和意義；其次，介紹物流需求預(yù)測理論，物流需求預(yù)測方法及局限性，綜述國內(nèi)外的研究現(xiàn)狀；最后，通過在M公司物流需求中實(shí)際應(yīng)用，驗(yàn)證了基于承載物品的載體的物流需求預(yù)測模型，，并分析預(yù)測誤差，從而進(jìn)行了進(jìn)一步的模型優(yōu)化。 通過分析及實(shí)證應(yīng)用研究，本文認(rèn)為物流需求預(yù)測可以為企業(yè)加強(qiáng)內(nèi)部物流管理精細(xì)化提供一個有效的預(yù)測工具，相對準(zhǔn)確的預(yù)測出物流需求，很好的解決了企業(yè)內(nèi)部物流需求量的不平衡和不確定性問題，從而為企業(yè)需要對承載物品的載體需求量做預(yù)測時提供了一個簡單可行的方法。
[Abstract]:With the diversification of customer demand, the fierce competition of enterprises, the development of global manufacturing concept, lean production in all fields of manufacturing enterprises continue to promote, lean thinking in manufacturing enterprises have been deeply rooted. Logistics, as an important part of the whole manufacturing process, has become the "third profit source" in the world. All enterprises hope to improve the level of logistics management and reduce the cost of logistics circulation. Enterprises have been looking for solutions to the problem of imbalance and uncertainty in logistics demand prediction based on carrier of carrying goods. Therefore, through the research of logistics demand forecasting and the application in M company, this paper establishes logistics demand forecasting model, validates logistics demand forecasting model and further optimizes the model. Based on the theory and research status of logistics demand forecasting, this paper studies logistics demand forecasting and its application in enterprises. First of all, on the basis of reading and analyzing the related research and related background of logistics demand prediction at home and abroad, the paper clarifies the research problem, purpose and significance of this paper; secondly, it introduces logistics demand forecasting theory, logistics demand forecasting method and its limitations. This paper summarizes the current research situation at home and abroad, and finally, through the practical application in the logistics demand of M Company, verifies the logistics demand forecasting model based on the carrier of carrying goods, and analyzes the prediction error, so as to optimize the model further. Through the analysis and empirical application research, this paper holds that logistics demand prediction can provide an effective forecasting tool for enterprises to strengthen the internal logistics management, relatively accurate prediction of logistics demand. It solves the problem of imbalance and uncertainty of logistics demand, and provides a simple and feasible method for enterprise to forecast the carrier demand of carrying goods.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘇州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F416.4;F253

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