本文選題：產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu) + 就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)��； 參考：《北京交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的必然,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變動會導(dǎo)致就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變動及就業(yè)增長的變化,從某種意義上說,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)決定與之相適應(yīng)的就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),但是就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變動有時(shí)會脫離產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變動,造成就業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)換的滯后和就業(yè)增長的阻礙。研究二者之間的變動關(guān)系,找出與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動相適應(yīng)的就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),保證就業(yè)穩(wěn)定增長,是一個(gè)具有現(xiàn)實(shí)意義的問題。 北京市現(xiàn)有2000多萬人口,勞動力資源應(yīng)該說極其豐富,總體來說呈現(xiàn)出供過于求狀態(tài),就業(yè)壓力較大。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)會隨之進(jìn)行調(diào)整,會對就業(yè)產(chǎn)生極大影響。針對這一現(xiàn)實(shí)問題,本文會選取1995年到2011年相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的年度數(shù)據(jù),采用定量分析為主,定性分析相結(jié)合的方法,對北京市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)二十多年來的變化以及二者之間的關(guān)系、存在的問題進(jìn)行研究,并提出解決問題的思路。 本論文借助產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)理論以及就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)理論,綜述北京市產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展以及居民就業(yè)的歷史、現(xiàn)狀和未來。在此基礎(chǔ)上,對北京市現(xiàn)有的產(chǎn)業(yè)及就業(yè)問題做出識別和總結(jié),分析其成因和機(jī)理。在理論分析產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)之間互動關(guān)系之后,通過統(tǒng)計(jì)方法以及就業(yè)彈性方法用數(shù)據(jù)證明了它們之間的互動關(guān)系。另外本文以2010年北京市投入產(chǎn)出表數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),運(yùn)用投入產(chǎn)出分析的基本理論與方法建立模型,對北京市各產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)吸納能力進(jìn)行評估和預(yù)測。通過相關(guān)系數(shù)和就業(yè)彈性的分析,第一產(chǎn)業(yè)和第二產(chǎn)業(yè)存在剩余勞動力,第三產(chǎn)業(yè)對就業(yè)的拉動作用最大。但是,第一產(chǎn)業(yè)的就業(yè)彈性為負(fù)值,并不意味著其增長不能促進(jìn)就業(yè),而是說明隨著農(nóng)業(yè)勞動生產(chǎn)率提高導(dǎo)致了大量的勞動力轉(zhuǎn)移到第三產(chǎn)業(yè)。對第二產(chǎn)業(yè)來說,在北京市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不斷演進(jìn)的過程中,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的資金、知識以及技術(shù)的密集程度不斷增高,這使得第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的企業(yè)可以獲得更高的勞動生產(chǎn)率,在減少雇用勞動力的同時(shí)增加企業(yè)效益。基于北京市2010年投入產(chǎn)出表以及北京市統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒中的數(shù)據(jù),本文建立了關(guān)于最終使用Y與各產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)人數(shù)L之間關(guān)系的模型,并利用模型預(yù)測2015年北京市各產(chǎn)業(yè)需要的就業(yè)人數(shù),并與最新統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒中各產(chǎn)業(yè)實(shí)際就業(yè)人數(shù)相對比,為北京市未來幾年的產(chǎn)業(yè)和就業(yè)發(fā)展提供意見。
[Abstract]:The adjustment of industrial structure is the necessity of economic development. The change of industrial structure will lead to the change of employment structure and the change of employment growth. In a sense, the industrial structure determines the employment structure corresponding to it. However, the change of employment structure sometimes deviates from the change of industrial structure, which leads to the lag of employment transformation and the hindrance of employment growth. It is of practical significance to study the changing relationship between the two, to find out the employment structure suitable to the change of industrial structure and to ensure the steady growth of employment. There are more than 20 million people in Beijing, labor resources should be said to be extremely rich, overall, there is a state of oversupply, employment pressure. With the economic development, the industrial structure and employment structure will be adjusted, which will have a great impact on employment. In view of this realistic problem, this paper will select the annual data of relevant economic variables from 1995 to 2011, and adopt the method of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis. This paper studies the changes of industrial structure and employment structure in Beijing over the past twenty years, the relationship between them, and the existing problems, and puts forward some ideas to solve the problems. With the help of industrial structure theory and employment structure theory, this paper summarizes the history, present situation and future of Beijing's industrial development and residents' employment. On this basis, the existing industry and employment problems in Beijing are identified and summarized, and the causes and mechanism are analyzed. After the theoretical analysis of the interaction between industrial structure and employment structure, the interaction between them is proved by statistical method and employment elasticity method. In addition, based on the data of Beijing input-output table in 2010, using the basic theory and method of input-output analysis, this paper establishes a model to evaluate and predict the employment absorption ability of various industries in Beijing. Through the analysis of correlation coefficient and employment elasticity, there is surplus labor force in the primary industry and the second industry, and the third industry plays the most important role in promoting employment. However, the employment elasticity of the primary industry is negative, which does not mean that its growth can not promote employment, but shows that with the increase of agricultural labor productivity, a large number of labor force is transferred to the tertiary industry. For the secondary industry, in the course of the continuous evolution of the industrial structure of Beijing, the capital, knowledge and technology density of the secondary industry is increasing, which enables the enterprises in the secondary industry to obtain higher labor productivity. Reduce the employment of labor at the same time increase the efficiency of the enterprise. Based on the input-output table of Beijing in 2010 and the data in the Beijing Statistical Yearbook, this paper establishes a model about the relationship between the final use of Y and the number of people employed in various industries. The model is used to forecast the number of industries in Beijing in 2015, and compared with the actual number of industries in the latest statistical yearbook, which provides advice for the industry and employment development of Beijing in the next few years.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F127;F249.27

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 王晨;烏魯木齊市勞動者就業(yè)問題與對策研究[D];新疆師范大學(xué);2016年

2 劉建慶;廣東省產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級對勞動力需求的影響分析[D];廣東省社會科學(xué)院;2016年

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本文編號：1806838