本文選題：匯率　切入點：湖南　出處：《中南大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：摘要：隨著湖南省對外開放度的不斷提高,匯率作為聯(lián)系對外經(jīng)濟的紐帶,對湖南省經(jīng)濟增長的影響開始變大。人民幣匯率形成機制改革后,匯率變得更具彈性,匯率風(fēng)險也更大,作為中部省份的湖南,具有明顯資源優(yōu)勢和人才優(yōu)勢,但對人民幣匯率改革等國家金融政策的適應(yīng)往往處于劣勢。本文研究人民幣匯率對湖南省經(jīng)濟增長的影響,從匯率的視角出發(fā),探討匯率風(fēng)險的防范以及湖南經(jīng)濟在結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化上的應(yīng)對措施。 本文采用了理論與實證相結(jié)合的方法,從理論上分析了匯率對湖南省經(jīng)濟影響的途徑以及影響效果,并基于三部門國民收入模型推導(dǎo)出匯率對經(jīng)濟影響的條件。然后采用回歸分析、平穩(wěn)性檢驗、協(xié)整檢驗、格蘭杰因果檢驗等方法實證檢驗了價格水平傳導(dǎo)、進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易以及投資三條匯率傳導(dǎo)路徑的效果,發(fā)現(xiàn)匯率與湖南省價格水平、進(jìn)口、出口以及固定資產(chǎn)投資均存在長期均衡關(guān)系,對價格水平和投資影響為正,對進(jìn)口和出口影響為負(fù)。隨后本文分析了人民幣匯率變動對湖南省經(jīng)濟總量的影響,發(fā)現(xiàn)湖南省經(jīng)濟總量與人民幣實際有效匯率之間存在長期均衡關(guān)系,人民幣的升值對湖南省經(jīng)濟增長有緊縮效應(yīng)。最后提出了湖南省應(yīng)加大對出口型企業(yè)的支持力度,加快外貿(mào)產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,重視消費對經(jīng)濟的拉動作用等政策建議。
[Abstract]:Abstract: with the development of opening to the outside world in Hunan Province, the exchange rate, as a link between foreign economy and foreign economy, has become more and more important to Hunan's economic growth.After the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, the exchange rate becomes more flexible and the exchange rate risk is also greater. As a central province, Hunan has obvious resource advantages and talent advantages.But the adaptation to the RMB exchange rate reform and other national financial policies is often at a disadvantage.This paper studies the impact of RMB exchange rate on the economic growth of Hunan Province, and from the perspective of exchange rate, discusses the prevention of exchange rate risk, the adjustment of the structure of Hunan's economy and the measures to optimize the industrial structure.In this paper, the method of combining theory with practice is used to analyze the ways and effects of the exchange rate on the economy of Hunan Province, and the conditions of the influence of the exchange rate on the economy are deduced based on the three-sector national income model.Then we use regression analysis, stability test, cointegration test, Granger causality test and other methods to empirically test the effect of price level transmission, import and export trade and investment, and find that the exchange rate and the price level of Hunan Province.There is a long-term equilibrium relationship among import, export and fixed asset investment, which has a positive effect on price level and investment, and a negative impact on import and export.Then this paper analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate change on the total economic volume of Hunan Province, and finds that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the total economic volume of Hunan Province and the real effective exchange rate of RMB, and the appreciation of RMB has a contractionary effect on the economic growth of Hunan Province.Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions such as increasing the support for export-oriented enterprises, speeding up the adjustment of foreign trade product structure, and attaching importance to the pulling effect of consumption on the economy in Hunan Province.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F224;F832.6;F127

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