本文選題：碳排放　切入點(diǎn)：因素分解　出處：《廣東省社會(huì)科學(xué)院》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長以及化石能源的大量消耗，導(dǎo)致全球大氣中溫室氣體濃度日漸升高，由此引發(fā)的全球氣候異常成為直接威脅人類生存和發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵性環(huán)境問題。抑制碳排放成為世界各國共同和不可推卸的責(zé)任。 中國作為最大的發(fā)展中國家，目前正處于工業(yè)化、城市化高速發(fā)展階段，能源大量消耗不可避免，加之我國存在“煤多、油少、氣貧”的資源稟賦特點(diǎn)，高耗能、高排放式經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式因此備受關(guān)注。2009年我國政府向世界明確承諾“到2020年實(shí)現(xiàn)單位GDP二氧化碳排放量比2005年下降40%-45%”。節(jié)能減排、走低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展道路已成為我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的必然選擇。廣東作為我國經(jīng)濟(jì)和能源消耗大省，其碳排放狀況對(duì)全國碳排放有著重要影響。2011年，國家發(fā)改委發(fā)布的《國家十二五溫室氣體減排方案》通知中，明確提出“十二五”期間廣東單位GDP二氧化碳排放量要下降19.5%，單位GDP能耗下降18%，這是全國34個(gè)省市中要求最嚴(yán)格的碳減排任務(wù)。廣東節(jié)能減排任重道遠(yuǎn)。 本文以現(xiàn)有國內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)為基礎(chǔ)，利用LMDI因素分解法，對(duì)影響廣東碳排放變動(dòng)的驅(qū)動(dòng)因子進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究，以期找出影響廣東碳排放變動(dòng)的內(nèi)在原因，為推進(jìn)廣東節(jié)能減排低碳提供參考。首先，本文對(duì)1997-2011年廣東省能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)及碳排放現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析。然后，運(yùn)用LMDI因子分解方法重點(diǎn)對(duì)廣東省碳排放總量以及廣東省工業(yè)內(nèi)部30個(gè)高耗能行業(yè)的碳排放進(jìn)行因素分解研究，定量測(cè)算了經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、能源結(jié)構(gòu)、能源強(qiáng)度以及部門結(jié)構(gòu)因素對(duì)廣東碳排放量變動(dòng)的影響。 研究顯示，經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模效應(yīng)對(duì)碳排放變動(dòng)貢獻(xiàn)份額最大，起到了125.99%的拉動(dòng)作用；而能源強(qiáng)度的下降和能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化則對(duì)碳排放增長起到一定的抑制作用，貢獻(xiàn)份額分別為-24.57%和-1.42%。此外，，還發(fā)現(xiàn)工業(yè)內(nèi)部重點(diǎn)耗能行業(yè)的快速發(fā)展是廣東碳排放快速增長的主因。盡管近年來廣東加大對(duì)資本技術(shù)密集型工業(yè)的技術(shù)扶持力度，但效率因素的抑制作用仍無法抵消高耗能工業(yè)急速擴(kuò)張帶來的反向拉動(dòng)作用，導(dǎo)致了碳排放的快速增加。 最后，本文基于實(shí)證研究結(jié)果，就廣東如何進(jìn)一步有效推進(jìn)節(jié)能減排低碳，分別從產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)以及能源利用效率等多個(gè)角度提出相應(yīng)的碳減排措施和建議。
[Abstract]:Rapid economic growth and massive consumption of fossil energy have led to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the global atmosphere. The global climate anomaly caused by this has become a key environmental problem that directly threatens the survival and development of human beings, and it is the common and unshirkable responsibility of all countries in the world to curb carbon emissions. As the largest developing country, China is now in the stage of industrialization and rapid development of urbanization. A large amount of energy consumption is inevitable. In addition, China has the characteristics of "more coal, less oil and poor gas", which is characterized by high energy consumption. In 2009, our government made a clear commitment to the world, "by 2020, the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be 40 to 45 percent lower than in 2005." The development of low-carbon economy has become the inevitable choice of China's economic development. Guangdong, as a major economic and energy consumption province, its carbon emissions have an important impact on national carbon emissions in 2011, In the notice issued by the National Development and Reform Commission on the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for greenhouse Gas reduction", It is clearly proposed that the carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP in Guangdong should be reduced by 19.5% and the energy consumption per unit GDP should be reduced by 18% during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, which is the strictest task of carbon emission reduction in 34 provinces and cities in China. Guangdong has a long way to go to save energy and reduce emissions. Based on the existing literature at home and abroad, this paper makes an empirical study on the driving factors that affect the change of carbon emissions in Guangdong by using the LMDI factorization method, in order to find out the internal reasons that affect the changes of carbon emissions in Guangdong. First of all, this paper analyzes the energy, economy and carbon emission status of Guangdong Province from 1997 to 2011. The total carbon emissions of Guangdong Province and the carbon emissions of 30 energy-consuming industries in Guangdong Province are studied by using LMDI factorization method. The economic development and energy structure are measured quantitatively. The impact of energy intensity and sector structure on carbon emissions in Guangdong. The research shows that the economic scale effect contributes the most to the change of carbon emissions, playing a pulling role of 125.99%, while the decrease of energy intensity and the optimization of energy consumption structure play a certain role in restraining the growth of carbon emissions. The contribution shares were -24.57% and -1.42%, respectively. In addition, it was found that the rapid development of key energy-consuming industries within the industry was the main reason for the rapid growth of carbon emissions in Guangdong, although in recent years Guangdong has increased its technological support for capital-technology-intensive industries. But the inhibitive effect of efficiency factors can not counteract the reverse pulling effect brought by the rapid expansion of energy-consuming industry, which leads to the rapid increase of carbon emissions. Finally, based on the results of empirical research, this paper puts forward the corresponding carbon reduction measures and suggestions from the industrial structure, energy consumption structure and energy use efficiency from the industrial structure, energy consumption structure and energy use efficiency.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣東省社會(huì)科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F124.5;F224

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