發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-20 06:46

  本文選題：商品住宅價(jià)格　切入點(diǎn)：影響因素　出處：《安徽農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：自1998年福利分房制度取消以來(lái),我國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)業(yè)得到迅速發(fā)展,目前已然成為我國(guó)的重要產(chǎn)業(yè)之一,不僅是支撐我國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要力量,而且也影響著千萬(wàn)家庭的生活。其中,商品住宅的價(jià)格在房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的快速發(fā)展下不斷攀升,甚至出現(xiàn)非理性的上漲。針對(duì)該類問(wèn)題,政府出臺(tái)一系列政策予以調(diào)控,以期控制房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格,尤其是商品住宅價(jià)格的過(guò)快上漲,維持房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的平穩(wěn)理性發(fā)展,但結(jié)果并不如預(yù)期的理想。在度過(guò)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)“黃金十年”的今天,房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)正處于調(diào)整和優(yōu)化的關(guān)鍵時(shí)點(diǎn),對(duì)發(fā)展?jié)摿�、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程度以及價(jià)格變化的關(guān)注,對(duì)未來(lái)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)進(jìn)入“白銀十年”的調(diào)整優(yōu)化期的發(fā)展尤為重要。在此背景下,本文以合肥市為例,對(duì)商品住宅價(jià)格的載體—房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的潛力及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行評(píng)估,對(duì)商品住宅價(jià)格的影響因素進(jìn)行分析,并據(jù)此為研究區(qū)未來(lái)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的長(zhǎng)效穩(wěn)定發(fā)展提供建設(shè)性的建議。本文通過(guò)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外研究成果和我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格影響因素定性分析的梳理,以房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格中影響最廣泛表現(xiàn)最敏感的商品住宅價(jià)格為切入點(diǎn),首先分析研究區(qū)商品住宅價(jià)格變化的市場(chǎng)載體狀況,并構(gòu)建市場(chǎng)潛力與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析框架,分析作為價(jià)格載體的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)未來(lái)的發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì),同時(shí)采用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度、線性回歸等方法對(duì)商品住宅價(jià)格的影響因素進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)分析。結(jié)果表明,(1)合肥市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展的利好因素多、價(jià)格不斷上升、區(qū)域分化不斷顯現(xiàn)、市場(chǎng)發(fā)展?jié)摿εc風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并存,潛力大于風(fēng)險(xiǎn),市場(chǎng)整體相對(duì)合理；(2)合肥市商品住宅成交價(jià)格與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)層面指標(biāo)的關(guān)聯(lián)度較高,與需求性指標(biāo)和價(jià)格層面指標(biāo)的關(guān)聯(lián)度次之,其中,與城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入、貨幣供應(yīng)量、城鎮(zhèn)化率和土地價(jià)格呈正相關(guān)性,與新開(kāi)工面積呈負(fù)相關(guān)性；(3)近些年,合肥市商品住宅的價(jià)格體系是在資金層面、城市發(fā)展及政府、開(kāi)發(fā)商、銀行等不同主體的決策和行為的共同影響下形成的。
[Abstract]:Since 1998 since the abolition of the welfare housing distribution system, China's real estate industry has been rapid development, has become one of the important industries of our country, is not only an important force of China's macro economy, but also affects the lives of tens of millions of families. Among them, the price of commercial housing in the rapid development of the real estate market continues to rise and even irrational rise. Aiming at the problem, the government promulgated a series of policies, in order to control the real estate prices, especially housing prices rise too fast, stable and maintain the rational development of the real estate industry, but the result is not as expected. The ideal throughout the real estate industry "gold for ten years" today, the real estate market is at a critical point of adjustment and optimization, development potential, the risk degree and concern for the future price changes, the real estate industry into "the adjustment and optimization of the silver ten years" Particularly important period of development. Under this background, this paper takes Hefei city as an example, evaluate the potential risk and carrier - the real estate market on the price of commercial housing, the influence factors of housing price are analyzed, and accordingly provides constructive suggestions for long-term stable development of the real estate market in the future in this paper. By qualitative analysis of the domestic and foreign research achievements and influence factors of real estate price in China combing with real estate prices in the most extensive influence performance of commercial housing price is the most sensitive point, the first analysis of the carrier market situation in the research area of commodity housing price changes, and construct the market potential and the risk analysis framework, as a development trend analysis the price of the real estate market in the future of the carrier, at the same time by using the grey correlation, the influence factors of commodity housing price regression results of system analysis. Ming, (1) the positive factors of Hefei real estate market development, rising prices, regional differentiation continue to appear, the development potential and market risk coexist, the potential is greater than the risk, the overall market is relatively reasonable; (2) associated with the transaction price and the macroeconomic level index of high degree of commercial housing in Hefei, associated with the demand index and price level index of the second degree, and the per capita disposable income of urban residents, the money supply, the rate of urbanization and land prices are positively correlated, negatively correlated with the new construction area; (3) in recent years, Hefei city commercial housing price system is in the capital level, city development and government. Developers, to form a common effect of different bank main decision-making and behavior under.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

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2 楊偉;秦繼平;鄭家余;王毓江;汪名e，

本文編號(hào)：1637954