本文選題：畜產(chǎn)品　切入點(diǎn)：價(jià)格　出處：《經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理研究》2015年04期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：本文以2001年1月—2014年5月的畜產(chǎn)品價(jià)格為研究對(duì)象,利用X-12-ARIMA季節(jié)調(diào)整模型分析影響畜產(chǎn)品價(jià)格波動(dòng)的相關(guān)因素,并利用協(xié)方差計(jì)算季節(jié)性影響、長期周期性影響、不規(guī)則影響對(duì)畜產(chǎn)品價(jià)格波動(dòng)的貢獻(xiàn)程度,進(jìn)一步利用兩階段協(xié)方差縱向?qū)Ρ确治龈饔绊懸蛩刎暙I(xiàn)度的變化,最后發(fā)現(xiàn)長期驅(qū)動(dòng)因素和季節(jié)性因素是中國畜產(chǎn)品價(jià)格波動(dòng)的主要因素;從縱向?qū)Ρ葋碚f,雞蛋、雞肉、豬肉價(jià)格的不規(guī)則影響因素的影響作用在減弱,雞肉、豬肉價(jià)格的季節(jié)性影響因素的作用在減弱。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the price of livestock products from January 2001 to May 2014 was used as the research object. The X-12-Arima seasonal adjustment model was used to analyze the related factors affecting the fluctuation of livestock product prices, and the seasonal effects and the long-term periodic effects were calculated by covariance. The contribution degree of irregular influence to the fluctuation of livestock product price was further analyzed by using two-stage covariance to analyze the change of contribution degree of each influence factor. Finally, it is found that long-term driving factors and seasonal factors are the main factors of the fluctuation of Chinese animal products price. From the vertical comparison, the influence of irregular factors on the price of eggs, chicken and pork is weakened. The seasonal effect of pork prices is weakening.
【作者單位】： 中國人民大學(xué)農(nóng)業(yè)與農(nóng)村發(fā)展學(xué)院;廣西大學(xué)商學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金重大項(xiàng)目“開放經(jīng)濟(jì)條件下完善我國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格形成機(jī)制和調(diào)控機(jī)制研究——基于產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈聯(lián)動(dòng)優(yōu)化的視角”(09&ZD044)
【分類號(hào)】：F323.7;F224

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本文編號(hào)：1607958