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  本文選題：經(jīng)濟周期波動　切入點：產(chǎn)業(yè)結構　出處：《新疆財經(jīng)大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：經(jīng)濟周期波動作為社會經(jīng)濟運動的一種重要形式，就受到國內(nèi)外理論界的廣泛關注。研究經(jīng)濟波動時，各國學者從不同的研究點分析波動情況，比如國家的各種財政政策、貨幣政策對波動的影響，產(chǎn)業(yè)總體結構和內(nèi)部結構變動對波動的影響等等。最近國內(nèi)大部分學者研究經(jīng)濟波動時，，從產(chǎn)業(yè)變動與社會整體經(jīng)濟波動之間找出兩者之間的關聯(lián)性的分析框架成為了主流。關于新疆而言，這種研究主流還沒有形成，可以說基本上沒有。有鑒于此，本人在國內(nèi)外相關研究成果的基礎，利用新疆各年代的不同統(tǒng)計資料，深入分析研究新疆經(jīng)濟周期波動與產(chǎn)業(yè)結構變動的關系。本文首先總體上界定新疆1955年到2012年的經(jīng)濟周期階段，然后分析歷次經(jīng)濟周期階段中的產(chǎn)業(yè)結構變動，在此研究的基礎上利用不同的計量方法進一步弄清楚兩者之間的關系，最后按照分析結果提出對策建議。文章的整體思路是如下： 第一章，本章研究總體的論述了，問題的提出、選題的背景及意義、關于經(jīng)濟周期波動與產(chǎn)業(yè)結構變動關系的相關文獻綜述和整個文章的框架設計及研究思路方法。對相關文獻綜述主要是從國內(nèi)和國外分類闡述的。 第二章，按照整篇論文的邏輯結構，在本文的第二章對文章始終需要的理論部分和理論基礎進行了詳細的闡述。 第三章，從1955-2012年的新疆經(jīng)濟的情況來界定了新疆經(jīng)濟周期波動階段。探討了波動階段特征和引起波動的因素。 第四章，利用指標分析法，協(xié)同性影響法，格蘭杰因果檢驗等分析方法大體上判斷新疆經(jīng)濟周期波動與產(chǎn)業(yè)結構變動的關聯(lián)性，總結出兩者之間的影響關系。 第五章，基于整篇論文的相關分析結果，該階段針對性地提出幾點優(yōu)化新疆產(chǎn)業(yè)結構、減穩(wěn)波動的對策建議。 本論文的價值是較詳細地探討1955-2012年間新疆經(jīng)濟周期波動與產(chǎn)業(yè)結構變動的關聯(lián)性，判斷出兩者之間的變動因果關系，這對于新疆實現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結構的優(yōu)化和整個社會經(jīng)濟的穩(wěn)定、持續(xù)發(fā)展意義重大。
[Abstract]:As an important form of social and economic movements, business cycle fluctuations have attracted extensive attention from the theoretical circles at home and abroad. When studying economic fluctuations, scholars from various countries analyze fluctuations from different research points, such as various fiscal policies of the country. The impact of monetary policy on volatility, the impact of changes in the overall structure of industry and the internal structure on volatility, etc. Recently, when most domestic scholars studied economic fluctuations, The analytical framework to find out the correlation between industrial changes and social and economic fluctuations has become the mainstream. As far as Xinjiang is concerned, this kind of research mainstream has not yet been formed, which can be said to be basically not. In view of this, On the basis of the relevant research results at home and abroad, I use different statistical data from different periods in Xinjiang. This paper analyzes the relationship between the fluctuation of economic cycle and the change of industrial structure in Xinjiang. Firstly, the paper defines the period of economic cycle from 1955 to 2012 in Xinjiang, and then analyzes the change of industrial structure in each period of economic cycle. On the basis of this study, the relationship between them is further clarified by using different metrological methods. Finally, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward according to the results of the analysis. The overall thinking of this paper is as follows:. The first chapter, this chapter discusses the whole research, puts forward the problem, the background and significance of the topic, The related literatures on the relationship between business cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change and the frame design and research methods of the whole article are summarized. The related literature review is mainly classified from domestic and foreign countries. In the second chapter, according to the logical structure of the whole thesis, the theoretical part and theoretical basis of the article are expounded in detail. The third chapter defines the fluctuation stage of Xinjiang's economic cycle from 1955-2012, and discusses the characteristics of the fluctuation stage and the factors that cause the fluctuation. In chapter 4th, we use index analysis method, synergistic impact method and Granger causality test to judge the correlation between economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change in Xinjiang, and summarize the influence relationship between them. In chapter 5th, based on the relevant analysis results of the whole paper, the countermeasures and suggestions of optimizing Xinjiang's industrial structure and reducing the fluctuation of stability are put forward in this stage. The value of this paper is to discuss in detail the relationship between the fluctuation of economic cycle and the change of industrial structure in Xinjiang during 1955-2012, and to judge the causal relationship between the changes, which is helpful to realize the optimization of the industrial structure and the stability of the whole society and economy in Xinjiang. Sustainable development is of great significance.
【學位授予單位】：新疆財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F127;F223

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