發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-01 09:49

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 生態(tài)足跡 濟(jì)南 線性回歸　出處：《山東大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：生態(tài)足跡理論是一種評(píng)價(jià)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的理論,它通過(guò)比較人類消耗的生態(tài)資源與自然環(huán)境所提供的生態(tài)資源,對(duì)所研究地區(qū)的可持續(xù)性進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)。由于自然資源的不可比性,因此使用的是將對(duì)生態(tài)資源轉(zhuǎn)化為生產(chǎn)它們的可比生物生產(chǎn)性土地的方法。 本文以生態(tài)足跡理論為基礎(chǔ),對(duì)濟(jì)南市的可持續(xù)性進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)。首先,選擇適合濟(jì)南市的生態(tài)足跡計(jì)量模型,為體現(xiàn)本地性采用國(guó)家公頃法；其次,計(jì)算靜態(tài)生態(tài)足跡,即濟(jì)南市2012年的生態(tài)足跡與生態(tài)承載力,通過(guò)比較分析得出濟(jì)南市處于生態(tài)赤字或生態(tài)盈余,并給予可持續(xù)性評(píng)價(jià)；再次,生態(tài)足跡包括碳足跡賬戶和生物質(zhì)資源賬戶,對(duì)1996年至2012年濟(jì)南市的生態(tài)足跡分賬戶進(jìn)行回歸分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)影響不同賬戶的產(chǎn)業(yè)因素；最后,根據(jù)回歸結(jié)果,對(duì)濟(jì)南市未來(lái)五年生態(tài)足跡的變化給予預(yù)測(cè),并給出增強(qiáng)濟(jì)南市可持續(xù)發(fā)展的政策建議。 結(jié)論,濟(jì)南市人均生態(tài)足跡(即生態(tài)需求)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于人均濟(jì)南市生態(tài)承載力(即生態(tài)供給),生態(tài)赤字很大。能源性生態(tài)足跡(碳足跡)占整個(gè)生態(tài)足跡較高的比重,與工業(yè)、建筑業(yè)呈較強(qiáng)的正相關(guān),與服務(wù)業(yè)呈較強(qiáng)的負(fù)相關(guān),與農(nóng)業(yè)、人口規(guī)模不相關(guān)。生物質(zhì)生態(tài)足跡與三產(chǎn)業(yè)和人口均無(wú)顯著的相關(guān)性�？偟纳鷳B(tài)足跡與工業(yè)產(chǎn)值呈顯著正相關(guān),與服務(wù)業(yè)呈顯著負(fù)相關(guān),與其他產(chǎn)業(yè)和人口不相關(guān),線性方程為L(zhǎng)nY=0.338lnX1-0.18lnX2+15.74,(Y為總生態(tài)足跡,X1為工業(yè)增加值,X2為服務(wù)業(yè)產(chǎn)值),本文通過(guò)預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)五年的工業(yè)增加值和服務(wù)業(yè)產(chǎn)值來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)總的生態(tài)足跡。結(jié)果顯示未來(lái)生態(tài)足跡增長(zhǎng)有限。但因?yàn)槟壳吧鷳B(tài)赤字較大,應(yīng)采取必要的措施。措施主要有：采取增加農(nóng)業(yè)耕地的生態(tài)供給,限制高耗能工業(yè),發(fā)展高端制造業(yè),以減少生態(tài)需求,同時(shí)為服務(wù)業(yè)創(chuàng)造更有利的發(fā)展環(huán)境,以促進(jìn)服務(wù)業(yè)的繁榮,緩解因高耗能高污染工業(yè)的關(guān)閉而引起的發(fā)展動(dòng)力不足的問(wèn)題。
[Abstract]:Ecological footprint theory is a theory of evaluating sustainable development. It evaluates the sustainability of the studied area by comparing the ecological resources consumed by human beings with the ecological resources provided by the natural environment. Thus, a method is used to convert ecological resources into comparable bioproductive land for their production. Based on the ecological footprint theory, this paper evaluates the sustainability of Jinan. Firstly, select the ecological footprint measurement model suitable for Jinan, to reflect the local use of the national hectare method; secondly, calculate the static ecological footprint. That is, the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of Jinan in 2012, through comparative analysis, it is concluded that Jinan is in ecological deficit or ecological surplus, and gives sustainability evaluation. Thirdly, ecological footprint includes carbon footprint account and biomass resource account. Based on the regression analysis of ecological footprint sub-accounts in Jinan from 1996 to 2012, the industrial factors affecting different accounts are found. Finally, according to the regression results, the changes of ecological footprint in Jinan in the next five years are predicted. And give the policy suggestion of strengthening the sustainable development of Jinan city. Conclusion: the per capita ecological footprint (i.e. ecological demand) of Jinan is much higher than that of the ecological carrying capacity (i.e. ecological supply) of Jinan, and the ecological deficit is very large. The energy ecological footprint (carbon footprint) accounts for a high proportion of the whole ecological footprint, and it is associated with industry. There was a strong positive correlation between the construction industry and the service industry, but no correlation with agriculture and population size. There was no significant correlation between the biomass ecological footprint and the three industries and the population, but the total ecological footprint was significantly positively correlated with the industrial output value. There was significant negative correlation with service industry, but no correlation with other industries and population. The linear equation is LnY=0.338lnX1-0.18lnX2 15.74% for the total ecological footprint and X1 for industrial added value and X2 for service industry output value. This paper predicts the future ecological footprint by predicting the industrial added value and service industry output value in the next five years. The results show that the future ecological footprint is expected in the future. Footprint growth is limited. But because of the current ecological deficit, Necessary measures should be taken. The main measures include: increasing the ecological supply of agricultural arable land, limiting energy-consuming industries, developing high-end manufacturing industries in order to reduce ecological demand, and creating a more favourable environment for the development of the service industry. In order to promote the prosperity of the service industry and alleviate the problem of insufficient development power caused by the closure of energy-intensive and polluting industries.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：X22;F127

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