本文關鍵詞： 房地產企業(yè) 財務風險預警 因子分析　出處：《哈爾濱理工大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：自2003年我國經濟開始大幅度增長以來，房地產行業(yè)隨著宏觀經濟的發(fā)展呈現(xiàn)迅猛的發(fā)展態(tài)勢，房地產企業(yè)也如雨后春筍般誕生。但是自2008年開始，國家針對房地產業(yè)過熱的問題進行了一系列的宏觀調控，從“國五條”到“國八條”再到“新國五條”，每一項政策的施行，都對過熱的房地產業(yè)起到降溫的作用。國家在對房地產市場降溫的同時，房地產企業(yè)的財務風險也隨之加大。因此，在宏觀經濟形勢不斷波動及國家調控政策不斷出臺的背景下，房地產企業(yè)若想在行業(yè)中立于不敗之地，對于自身所處的環(huán)境要有清晰認識的基礎上，更要對企業(yè)的財務風險進行有效的預警和防控，這不僅是房地產企業(yè)能夠保持穩(wěn)定發(fā)展的前提，，更是對投資者、政府管理當局和銀行等金融機構得到準確的財務信息的重要保障。 以往關于房地產業(yè)財務風險預警的文獻中，大部分學者都是站在企業(yè)內部的角度，針對企業(yè)內部可能對財務風險產生的因素進行風險預警及防控，沒有充分考慮外部因素的波動對企業(yè)財務風險的影響。因此，本文在總結了前人們的研究基礎上從分析房地產業(yè)行業(yè)特征和房地產企業(yè)財務特征入手，著重分析出導致房地產企業(yè)財務風險的重要因素，并結合外部環(huán)境的變遷對財務風險形成的機理進行詳細的剖析。依據(jù)財務指標和非財務指標設計出是否與企業(yè)的財務狀況同步波動的先導指標、同步指標和滯后指標。運用因子分析方法對先導指標、同步指標、滯后指標和綜合預警指標進行篩選和計算，依據(jù)綜合預警指標的數(shù)值判斷企業(yè)所屬的警度大小。最后根據(jù)風險雷達定位圖定位出企業(yè)具體的風險來源及影響因子較大的變量，有側重性的對產生財務風險的因素進行風險防控，選取相應的防控措施。
[Abstract]:Since 2003, when the economy of our country began to grow by a large margin, the real estate industry has been developing rapidly with the development of the macro economy, and the real estate enterprises have been springing up. But since 2008, the real estate industry has been developing rapidly. The state has carried out a series of macro-control measures against the overheating of the real estate industry, from "National five" to "State eight" to "New State five". Both play a role in cooling the overheated real estate industry. While the state is cooling down the real estate market, the financial risks of real estate enterprises also increase. Under the background of the constant fluctuation of the macroeconomic situation and the continuous promulgation of the national regulation and control policies, if the real estate enterprises want to be invincible in the industry, they should have a clear understanding of their own environment. More importantly, it is necessary to carry out effective early warning and prevention and control of the financial risks of enterprises. This is not only a prerequisite for the stable development of real estate enterprises, but also a prerequisite for investors. Government authorities and banks and other financial institutions to obtain accurate financial information an important guarantee. In the previous literature on financial risk early warning of real estate industry, most scholars are from the angle of enterprise interior, and carry out risk warning and prevention and control to the factors that may produce financial risk in the enterprise. The influence of the fluctuation of external factors on the financial risk of the enterprise is not fully considered. Therefore, this paper begins with the analysis of the industry characteristics of the real estate industry and the financial characteristics of the real estate enterprise on the basis of summarizing the previous studies. Focusing on the analysis of the important factors leading to the financial risks of real estate enterprises, Combined with the change of external environment, the mechanism of financial risk formation is analyzed in detail. According to the financial index and non-financial index, the pilot index is designed to synchronize with the enterprise's financial situation. Factor analysis is used to screen and calculate the leading index, synchronization index, lag index and comprehensive early warning index. Finally, according to the risk radar positioning map, the specific risk sources of the enterprise and the variables with large influence factors are identified. Focus on the risk prevention and control of the financial risk factors, select the corresponding prevention and control measures.
【學位授予單位】：哈爾濱理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F275;F299.233.4

【引證文獻】

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2 卞曉燕;;基于房地產企業(yè)財務風險與管理的研究[J];財會學習;2016年21期

3 楊露露;;房地產企業(yè)財務風險問題研究[J];品牌;2015年11期

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本文編號：1546364