本文關(guān)鍵詞： 城市地價 動態(tài)監(jiān)測 地價指數(shù) 數(shù)字地價模型 時空變異規(guī)律　出處：《四川農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：地價能直接反映土地市場變化的狀況,是規(guī)范土地資源配置的重要手段。本文以達(dá)州市為研究對象,收集整理了2008-2012年城市地價動態(tài)監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)成果,以土地經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)知識、地統(tǒng)計學(xué)原理和方法為指導(dǎo),通過地價指數(shù)編制及擬合模型,分析和預(yù)測達(dá)州市地價時間變化趨勢；在Arcgis9.3平臺上,利用ESDA模塊、Kriging插值、數(shù)字地價模型等方法和工具剖析達(dá)州市地價空間分布規(guī)律。主要研究結(jié)論如下：1、利用2008-2012年達(dá)州市城市地價動態(tài)監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)成果編制了達(dá)州市分類地價指數(shù)以及綜合地價指數(shù),并通過分析2008-2012年間達(dá)州市地價時間序列上的變化特征,分析引起地價變化的影響因素。商業(yè)用地價格年平均增長額為79.2元/m2,漲幅達(dá)到20.92%,年平均漲幅為4.18%；各級別的地價水平都逐年上漲,級別間的地價水平有顯著差異。居住用地價格年平均增長額為26.6元/m2,漲幅達(dá)到14.69%,年平均漲幅為2.94%；各級別的地價水平都呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢,快速增長和緩慢增長交替出現(xiàn)。工業(yè)用地價格年平均增長額為2.1元/m2,漲幅達(dá)到6.9%,年平均漲幅為1.38%；各級別地價走勢與水平線基本一致,總體保持小幅度緩慢上升趨勢。2、分析了達(dá)州市商業(yè)、居住及工業(yè)用地地價時間變化序數(shù),擬合各用途地價最優(yōu)時間變化趨勢模型,得到達(dá)州市2008-2015年度商業(yè)、居住及工業(yè)用地地價的預(yù)測值。結(jié)果表明達(dá)州市各用途地價在未來幾年都呈現(xiàn)持續(xù)上漲的趨勢。商業(yè)、居住以及工業(yè)用地價格三者對比,地價水平表現(xiàn)為商業(yè)居住工業(yè),增長速度和增長幅度都表現(xiàn)為商業(yè)居住工工業(yè)。3、在Arcgis9.3軟件平臺上,運(yùn)用直方圖(Histogram)、正態(tài)QQ分布圖(Normal QQ lot)、趨勢分析圖(Trend Analysis)、半方差／協(xié)方差函數(shù)云圖(Semivariogram/Covariance cloud)等工具對2012年達(dá)州市動態(tài)監(jiān)測樣點地價進(jìn)行空間探索性分析,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)商業(yè)、居住及工業(yè)用地樣點地價均服從正態(tài)分布趨勢。4、選取球狀模型進(jìn)行Kriging插值生成商業(yè)、居住及工業(yè)用地數(shù)字地價模型,并提取的地價等值線。通過地價等值線圖分析,揭示達(dá)州市地價空間分布特征。商業(yè)用地地價空間分布特征：(1)地價空間分布呈現(xiàn)緊湊的圈層式結(jié)構(gòu),地價等值線有明顯的空間向心性；(2)地價在空間分布上存在變異性,地價由商業(yè)中心向外圍逐漸降低的同時,在某些區(qū)域發(fā)生變化：(3)地價分布在空間上具有區(qū)域性；(4)地價在空間上的梯度變化存在差異。居住用地地價空間分布特征：(1)地價空間分布近似圈層結(jié)構(gòu)(2)居住用地呈現(xiàn)臨街分布,毗鄰商業(yè)中心的特點；(3)地價分布不均,在空間上具有區(qū)域性；(4)地價自中心城區(qū)向外圍遞減,梯度變化有所差異。工業(yè)用地地價空間分布特征：工業(yè)用地地價最高在700元/m2以上,最低在450元/m2以下：老城區(qū)、南外片區(qū)以及西外片區(qū)朝陽中路等區(qū)域工業(yè)地價普遍較高。
[Abstract]:The land price can directly reflect the change of the land market and is an important means to standardize the allocation of land resources. This paper takes Dazhou city as the research object, collects and arranges the data of dynamic monitoring of urban land price from 2008 to 2012, and makes use of the knowledge of land economics. Under the guidance of the principle and method of geostatistics, the trend of land price time change in Dazhou city is analyzed and forecasted by compiling and fitting model of land price index. On the platform of Arcgis9.3, the ESDA module is used to interpolate the land price in Dazhou city. Digital land price model and other methods and tools are used to analyze the spatial distribution of land price in Dazhou city. The main conclusions are as follows: 1. Using the dynamic monitoring data of urban land price in Dazhou city from 2008 to 2012, the classified land price index and the comprehensive land price index of Dazhou city are compiled. By analyzing the characteristics of the time series of land price in Dazhou city from 2008 to 2012, An analysis of the factors affecting the change in land price. The average annual increase in the price of commercial land is 79.2 yuan / m2, which is 20.922 yuan, and the annual average increase is 4.18%. The land price level of all levels has increased year by year. There are significant differences in the land price levels among different levels. The average annual increase in the price of residential land is 26.6 yuan / m2, which is 14.699.The average annual increase is 2.94. the land price level at all levels shows an upward trend. Rapid growth and slow growth alternately occur. The average annual increase in the price of industrial land is 2.1 yuan / m2, an increase of 6.9 yuan and an average annual increase of 1.38. The trend of land prices at all levels is basically the same as the horizontal line. On the whole, it keeps a small and slow upward trend. 2. This paper analyzes the number of time changes of land price in Dazhou city, analyzes the number of time changes in land price of Dazhou city, fits the model of optimal time change of land price for each purpose, and obtains the commercial value in 2008-2015. The results show that the land price of various uses in Dazhou City will continue to rise in the next few years. Compared with commercial, residential and industrial land prices, the land price level is shown as commercial residential industry. Both the growth rate and the growth rate are as follows: commercial, residential, industrial. 3. On the Arcgis9.3 software platform, Using histogram, normal QQ distribution map, trend analysis, semi-variance / covariance function cloud map, etc., the spatial exploratory analysis of land price at dynamic monitoring sites in Dazhou City in 2012 was carried out. From the normal distribution trend. 4, the spherical model is selected to generate the digital land price model of commercial, residential and industrial land by Kriging interpolation, and the obtained land price isoline is analyzed through the land price isoline map. This paper reveals the spatial distribution of land price in Dazhou city. While the land price is gradually decreasing from the commercial center to the periphery, The spatial distribution of land price is different in space. The spatial distribution of residential land price is similar to that of circle structure. The characteristics of adjoining commercial center are as follows: the distribution of land price is uneven, and there is a regional distribution of land price in space. The land price decreases from the central city to the periphery, and the gradient changes are different. The spatial distribution of industrial land price: the highest value of industrial land price is more than 700 yuan / m ~ 2, The lowest value is less than 450 yuan / m2: the industrial land price is generally high in the old urban area, the south outside area and the Chaoyang Central Road in the west part of the area.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：四川農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23

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