本文關(guān)鍵詞： 系統(tǒng)動力學(xué) 資源枯竭型城市 經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型 烏海市　出處：《中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)（北京）》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：在十八大“關(guān)于資源型城市轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展意見”和《全國資源型城市可持續(xù)發(fā)展規(guī)劃》的指引下，本文以我國典型的煤炭資源枯竭型城市——烏海市——為研究對象，采用個(gè)案研究、數(shù)理分析和經(jīng)驗(yàn)總結(jié)相結(jié)合的方法,在城市和經(jīng)濟(jì)良性互動的前提下，探討烏海市經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的路徑選擇。首先，本文對烏海市的歷史和現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了介紹，指出伴隨著資源的逐漸枯竭，烏海市面臨的問題，提出了烏海市經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的必要性。其次，本文對國內(nèi)外煤炭資源枯竭型城市經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的先進(jìn)經(jīng)驗(yàn)進(jìn)行了介紹和總結(jié)，并根據(jù)這些經(jīng)驗(yàn)，結(jié)合烏海市的現(xiàn)狀，提出了烏海市經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的總體思路。再次，為了揭示烏海市經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部存在的問題，探索烏海市經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的方向，本文以系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)理論為基礎(chǔ)，建立了煤炭資源枯竭型城市經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的系統(tǒng)結(jié)構(gòu)模型，將其分為六個(gè)系統(tǒng)的指標(biāo)體系，以烏海市的數(shù)據(jù)為樣本，仿真模擬烏海市2006-2021年的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，并與實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行比較分析，，以揭示烏海市經(jīng)濟(jì)存在的問題，探索其經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型方向。在明確烏海市經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型方向的基礎(chǔ)上，本文結(jié)合烏海市的城市發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀，提出了實(shí)現(xiàn)烏海市經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的三個(gè)關(guān)鍵問題，據(jù)此提出烏海市城市發(fā)展的定位和城市發(fā)展設(shè)想，以城市發(fā)展推動經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型。以此為基礎(chǔ)，本文最后提出了烏海市經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型路徑選擇和對策建議。 本文的研究結(jié)果表明：首先，國內(nèi)外六個(gè)煤炭資源枯竭型城市經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型過程中的經(jīng)驗(yàn)可以歸結(jié)為三點(diǎn)：政府主導(dǎo)、產(chǎn)業(yè)政策轉(zhuǎn)變、經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型。其次，烏海市經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)的仿真結(jié)果表明：（1）烏海市單位固定資產(chǎn)的投入產(chǎn)出趨勢走低，這說明固定資產(chǎn)投資將不再是烏海市產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的主要推動力。（2）烏海市第三產(chǎn)業(yè)單位固定資產(chǎn)投入產(chǎn)出高于工業(yè)投入的產(chǎn)出，故烏海市必須對固定資產(chǎn)投入的結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行調(diào)整，在最小環(huán)境代價(jià)的情況下實(shí)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)間組合投資收益的最大化。（3）環(huán)境治理投入對經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的作用在短時(shí)間內(nèi)見效甚微，但它對工業(yè)固定資產(chǎn)投入的影響是隨著時(shí)間逐步放大的。最后，以系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)的仿真結(jié)論為理論基礎(chǔ)，吸取國內(nèi)外煤炭資源枯竭型城市經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型過程中的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，結(jié)合目前烏海市城市發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀，提出了烏海市經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型步驟，和相應(yīng)的法規(guī)和政策，以保證經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的順利實(shí)施。
[Abstract]:Under the guidance of "opinions on the Transformation and Development of Resource-based cities" and "National Sustainable Development Plan of Resource-based cities", this paper takes Wuhai City, a typical coal resource-exhausted city in China, as the research object and adopts case study. Under the premise of benign interaction between city and economy, this paper discusses the path choice of economic transformation in Wuhai City. First, this paper introduces the history and present situation of Wuhai City. This paper points out the problems faced by Wuhai with the gradual depletion of resources, and puts forward the necessity of economic transformation in Wuhai. Secondly, this paper introduces and summarizes the advanced experience of economic transformation of coal resource exhausted cities at home and abroad. According to these experiences, combined with the current situation of Wuhai City, this paper puts forward the overall thinking of economic transformation in Wuhai City. Thirdly, in order to reveal the problems existing in the economic system of Wuhai City, and to explore the direction of economic transformation in Wuhai City, Based on the theory of system dynamics, this paper establishes the system structure model of the economic transformation of the coal resource exhausted city, and divides it into six index systems, taking the data of Wuhai city as the sample. The relevant data of Wuhai City from 2006 to 2021 are simulated and compared with the actual data in order to reveal the problems existing in the economy of Wuhai City and explore the direction of its economic transformation. On the basis of defining the direction of economic transformation of Wuhai City, According to the present situation of urban development in Wuhai City, this paper puts forward three key problems to realize the economic transformation of Wuhai City, and then puts forward the orientation of urban development and the idea of urban development in Wuhai City, which is based on urban development to promote economic transformation. Finally, this paper puts forward the choice of economic transition path and countermeasures. The results of this paper show that: first, the experience in the economic transformation of six coal resource exhausted cities at home and abroad can be summed up into three points: government leading, industrial policy transformation, economic transformation. The simulation results of the system dynamics of economic transformation in Wuhai City show that the input-output trend of fixed assets per unit in Wuhai City is lower. This shows that fixed asset investment will no longer be the main driving force for industrial economic growth in Wuhai City. (2) the input and output of fixed assets per unit of the tertiary industry in Wuhai City is higher than that of industrial input, so the structure of fixed assets input must be adjusted in Wuhai City. In the case of minimum environmental cost, the effect of environmental governance investment on economic transformation is very little in a short period of time. But its influence on the investment of industrial fixed assets is magnified gradually with time. Finally, based on the simulation results of system dynamics, the experience of domestic and foreign coal resource exhausted cities in the process of economic transformation is drawn. Combined with the present situation of urban development in Wuhai City, this paper puts forward the steps of economic transformation in Wuhai City, and the corresponding laws and policies, in order to ensure the smooth implementation of economic transformation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)（北京）
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.27;N941.3

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