本文關(guān)鍵詞： 房地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素 層次分析法　出處：《中國海洋大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：伴隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的迅速發(fā)展,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展逐步走向正規(guī)的軌道,形成一個(gè)良好的循環(huán),但是由于美國次貸危機(jī)的影響,我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)從2007年第四季度開始,無論是銷售數(shù)量還是房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)建筑面積開始走下行路線。同時(shí)又由于房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)周期長,影響因素眾多,給房地產(chǎn)投資者帶來巨大的投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。國家宏觀調(diào)控政策的出臺頻繁,正是由于市場供求存在矛盾、法律法規(guī)體制還不如國外完善,使得房地產(chǎn)業(yè)目前正成為我國高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的行業(yè)之一。對于房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商來說,要想避免或者降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn),必須關(guān)注市場動態(tài)的變化,充分準(zhǔn)備好投資決策的功課是避免和降低房地產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最關(guān)鍵的一步。對于房地產(chǎn)市場來說,要想房地產(chǎn)市場繁榮發(fā)展,面臨眾多的不確定性因素,只有充分掌握房地產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的方法,定性與定量的方法相結(jié)合,才能為決策者提供科學(xué)合理的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)機(jī)制。因此,高度重視房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析具有十分重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。在論述了研究房地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的研究背景和必要性,分別分析了國內(nèi)外關(guān)于房地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,闡述了本文研究房地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的研究方法,提出了該本文的研究框架圖和創(chuàng)新之處。結(jié)合房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資分析的相關(guān)理論,房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析主要包括現(xiàn)實(shí)意義和基本目標(biāo),分別闡述了房地產(chǎn)投資決策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識別方法——頭腦風(fēng)暴法、德爾斐法、情景分析法、篩選—監(jiān)測—診斷技術(shù)以及故障樹分析法。對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)指標(biāo)選取的原則也做出了相應(yīng)的論述。在房地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析理論的基礎(chǔ)上,選取“蘭溪麗景”房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目為研究對象,介紹了“蘭溪麗景”房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目的一般概況,對“蘭溪麗景”房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資的前期、中期、后期的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析分別做出了介紹,最后根據(jù)實(shí)施風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理后的變化,展示出了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理在“蘭溪麗景”房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資中的巨大成果。根據(jù)“蘭溪麗景”房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目的實(shí)際特點(diǎn),運(yùn)用層次分析法對此進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析,結(jié)合當(dāng)?shù)氐纳鐣宋沫h(huán)境,確定了影響“蘭溪麗景”房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目順利實(shí)施的主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,選擇了最適合本項(xiàng)目的投資方案。從一般策略與具體策略的角度,提出了適合“蘭溪麗景”房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目防范風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的措施。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, the development of the real estate industry gradually towards the formal track, forming a good cycle, but due to the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. Since in the fourth quarter of 2007, China's real estate industry began to take a downward route, both in terms of sales volume and the building area of real estate development. At the same time, because of the long period of the real estate industry, there are many influencing factors. Bring huge investment risk to the real estate investors. The national macro-control policy comes out frequently, it is precisely because of the contradiction between supply and demand in the market, the legal system is not as perfect as the foreign countries. The real estate industry is becoming one of the high-risk industries in China. For real estate developers, to avoid or reduce the risk, we must pay attention to the changes of market dynamics. It is the most important step to avoid and reduce the risk of real estate. For the real estate market, there are many uncertain factors to make the real estate market prosperous and develop. Only by fully mastering the real estate risk analysis method and combining qualitative and quantitative methods can we provide a scientific and reasonable risk evaluation mechanism for decision makers. It is of great practical significance to attach great importance to the risk analysis of real estate investment. This paper discusses the background and necessity of the research on the risk analysis of real estate investment. This paper analyzes the development status of real estate investment risk analysis at home and abroad, and expounds the research methods of real estate investment risk analysis in this paper. Put forward the research frame diagram and innovation of this paper. Combined with the real estate project management risk investment analysis theory, real estate project investment risk analysis mainly includes practical significance and basic objectives. Separately elaborated real estate investment decision risk identification method-brainstorming method, Delphi method, scenario analysis method. Screening-monitoring-diagnosis technology and fault tree analysis. The principles of risk evaluation index selection are also discussed. On the basis of real estate investment risk analysis theory. Select "Lanxi Lijing" real estate project as the research object, introduce the general situation of "Lanxi Lijing" real estate project, the "Lanxi Lijing" real estate project management risk investment in the early and middle stage. Later risk analysis is introduced, and finally according to the changes after the implementation of risk management. This paper shows the great achievements of risk management in the risk investment of real estate project management of Lanxi Lijing. According to the actual characteristics of the real estate project of "Lanxi Lijing", the paper makes an empirical analysis by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Combined with the local social and cultural environment, this paper determines the main risk factors that affect the successful implementation of the real estate project "Lanxi Lijing", and selects the most suitable investment plan for the project. The paper puts forward the measures to prevent the risk of the real estate project of Lanxi Lijing.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.233.42

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