發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-21 07:25

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 上市銀行 經(jīng)濟(jì)增加值 企業(yè)價(jià)值　出處：《安徽大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：作為國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要組成部分,銀行業(yè)關(guān)系著國(guó)家金融體系的安全與穩(wěn)定。與此同時(shí),上市銀行股也是整個(gè)股市的重中之重,決定著證券市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展方向。隨著我國(guó)金融改革步伐的加快,銀行類(lèi)上市公司的估值問(wèn)題已經(jīng)引起越來(lái)越多的關(guān)注。因此,本文旨在選用科學(xué)的評(píng)估方法估計(jì)出我國(guó)所有上市銀行的價(jià)值進(jìn)而指導(dǎo)投資者理性投資。 本文首先對(duì)上市銀行價(jià)值評(píng)估的研究背景及意義進(jìn)行了簡(jiǎn)要的概述,并簡(jiǎn)單闡述了本文的研究?jī)?nèi)容和結(jié)構(gòu),然后回顧了國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者關(guān)于EVA指標(biāo)的研究現(xiàn)狀,并對(duì)其進(jìn)行了總結(jié)評(píng)價(jià),接著分別指出了本文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)和不足之處；其次,對(duì)傳統(tǒng)的價(jià)值評(píng)估方法進(jìn)行了考察,分析了現(xiàn)金流折現(xiàn)法、相對(duì)估值法、期權(quán)定價(jià)法和EVA估值法的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn),并將EVA估值法與其他三種方法進(jìn)行比較得出EVA估值法在評(píng)估企業(yè)價(jià)值上更具有科學(xué)性和合理性；再次,對(duì)EVA估值模型進(jìn)行分類(lèi)介紹,選擇出適用于上市銀行的EVA兩階段估值模型,并詳細(xì)介紹了上市銀行EVA值計(jì)算過(guò)程中各個(gè)項(xiàng)目的確定以及相關(guān)會(huì)計(jì)科目的會(huì)計(jì)調(diào)整。在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文對(duì)所有上市銀行進(jìn)行基于EVA模型的實(shí)證分析：首先計(jì)算了所有上市銀行2012年的EVA和REVA指標(biāo),并據(jù)此分析各上市銀行的經(jīng)營(yíng)績(jī)效,結(jié)果表明在我國(guó)上市的所有銀行中,股份制商業(yè)銀行的業(yè)績(jī)表現(xiàn)最好,國(guó)有商業(yè)銀行的盈利能力處于中等水平,城市商業(yè)銀行的業(yè)績(jī)表現(xiàn)參差不齊；然后利用各上市銀行2010-2012年年報(bào)中的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),預(yù)測(cè)出上市銀行2013-2015年的EVA值,再根據(jù)EVA兩階段估值模型,計(jì)算出2012年末各上市銀行的企業(yè)價(jià)值及每股價(jià)值,并與滬深股市中的各上市銀行的現(xiàn)實(shí)股價(jià)進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析。最后,基于實(shí)證分析結(jié)果,從規(guī)模性和成長(zhǎng)性?xún)蓚�(gè)方面入手,發(fā)掘出中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)銀行、興業(yè)銀行、中國(guó)民生銀行、招商銀行和寧波銀行這五家銀行更加具有投資價(jià)值,進(jìn)而為投資者提供投資建議。
[Abstract]:As an important part of the national economy, the banking industry is related to the security and stability of the national financial system. At the same time, the listed bank shares are also the most important part of the whole stock market. With the acceleration of the pace of financial reform in China, the valuation of bank listed companies has attracted more and more attention. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the value of all listed banks in China by using scientific evaluation methods and to guide investors to invest rationally. Firstly, this paper briefly summarizes the research background and significance of the valuation of listed banks, and briefly describes the research content and structure of this paper. Then review the domestic and foreign scholars on the research status of EVA indicators, and evaluate it, and then point out the innovation and shortcomings of this paper; Secondly, the traditional valuation methods are investigated, and the advantages and disadvantages of discounted cash flow method, relative valuation method, option pricing method and EVA valuation method are analyzed. Comparing the EVA valuation method with the other three methods, it is concluded that the EVA valuation method is more scientific and reasonable in evaluating the enterprise value. Thirdly, the EVA valuation model is classified and introduced, and the two-stage EVA valuation model suitable for listed banks is selected. And detailed introduction of listed banks in the process of calculating the EVA value of each project and accounting adjustments related to the accounting. On this basis. This paper carries on the empirical analysis of all listed banks based on EVA model: firstly, the EVA and REVA indexes of all listed banks in 2012 are calculated, and the operating performance of each listed bank is analyzed accordingly. The results show that among all the banks listed in China, the performance of joint-stock commercial banks is the best, the profitability of state-owned commercial banks is at a medium level, and the performance of urban commercial banks is uneven. Then using the relevant data of the 2010-2012 annual report of each listed bank, the EVA value of the listed bank in 2013-2015 is forecasted, and then according to the two-stage valuation model of EVA. The enterprise value and the value per share of each listed bank in end of 2012 are calculated and compared with the real stock price of each listed bank in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market. Finally, based on the empirical analysis results. From the two aspects of scale and growth, find out the Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial Bank, Minsheng Bank of China, China Merchants Bank and Ningbo Bank, these five banks have more investment value. In turn, investors to provide investment advice.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F224;F832.33

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